Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales Pick, 09/12/2026 Predictions Noche UFC 4 Odds
Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales
Noche UFC 4
Accor Arena in Paris, France
Saturday, September 12, 2026
Brandon Moreno will battle Joseph Morales at Noche UFC 4 on Saturday, September 12, 2026. The moneyline has Moreno priced at +100 while Morales is at -120.
Brandon "The Assassin Baby" Moreno steps into the Octagon holding a record of 23-10-2. The 32-year-old weighs 125 lbs and stands in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 70". Joseph "Bopo" Morales measures 5'6" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The switch fighter steps into the cage with a record of 15-2-0. The 32-year-old stretches 69". Regarding significant strikes, Brandon Moreno is landing 3.84 per min and Joseph Morales lands 2.00 significant strikes per minute. Moreno lands 44% of the significant strikes he attempts and Morales is landing 40%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "The Assassin Baby" takes 3.64 significant strikes per min while "Bopo" allows 2.05. Moreno also stops 59% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way and Morales stops 57% of the strikes thrown in his direction.
| Noche UFC 4 | Brandon Moreno | Joseph Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +100 | -120 |
| Record | 23-10-2 | 15-2-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 17:03 | 7:54 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'6" |
| Weight | 125 lbs | 125 lbs |
| Reach | 70" | 69" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.84 | 2.00 |
| Striking Accuracy | 44% | 40% |
In the wrestling category, Brandon Moreno is the more effective wrestler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 1.36 times per 15 min. Moreno is scoring a takedown on 39% of the times he tries and is stopping 65% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Morales is taking his opponents to the mat on 42% of the takedowns he attempts and thwarting 26% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. In terms of subbing the opposition, Moreno is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by attempting 0.4 subs per 3 rounds while Morales tries 3.0 subs per 15 minutes.
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In his previous bout, Brandon Moreno faced Lone'er Kavanagh and was defeated by unanimous decision in round 5. Kavanagh ended up landing 136 of 245 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Moreno walked away from this fight having landed 134 of 229 total strikes. Concerning significant strikes, Kavanagh ended up landing 97 of 205, which means his percentage was 47%. He ended up landing 60 of 160 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, Moreno ended up landing 47% of his significant strikes by landing 79 of 168. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 51 of 133 to the head. 94% of the significant strikes landed by Kavanagh and 87% of them connected on by Moreno were done at a distance.
In the last bout for Joseph Morales, he squared up with Matt Schnell and ended up getting the win via guillotine choke in round 1. Schnell ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Morales ended up connecting on 40% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Morales landed 45% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 5 of 11. He ended up landing 4 of 10 significant strikes aimed at the head. Schnell landed 4 of 11 significant strikes in that fight. Of all the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 1 of 8 aimed at the head. In regard to total strikes attempted in that contest, Schnell landed 5 of 12 while Morales was 12 of 18 of all the strikes he threw.
Other fights on the card to watch
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Tommy McMillen enters the Octagon against Marwan Rahiki. McMillen will be looking to add a win to his record of 11-0-0. The 28-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and measures in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 74". Rahiki stands in at 5'8" and tips the scales at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 9-0-0. The 24-year-old reaches 72". Regarding grappling, Tommy McMillen takes his opponents to the mat 0.50 times per 3 rds and Marwan Rahiki takes his opponents to the canvas 0.90 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, McMillen is connecting on 13.54 strikes/minute and landing 50% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side of the cage we have Marwan Rahiki, who connects on 52% of the strikes that he throws and connects on 7.75 per minute.
One more can't miss bout is when Curtis Blaydes is set to square up in the Octagon against Waldo Cortes Acosta. Cortes Acosta will be looking to add a victory to his record of 17-3-0. The 34-year-old is fighting at 260 lbs and measures 6'4". The orthodox fighter stretches 78". Blaydes stands 6'4" and weighs 265 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a record of 19-6-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old stretches 80". In the category of takedowns, Waldo Cortes Acosta is stopping 73% of his opponents' takedown tries and is getting his opponent to the mat on 50% of his attempts. Blaydes is finishing his takedowns on 47% of his attempts and thwarts 35% of all takedown tries against him. In the matter of striking, Cortes Acosta is taking 3.63 strikes/minute and he is dishing out 5.34 per minute. Blaydes, moreover, takes 2.76 strikes/minute and deals 4.18 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Joseph Morales (-120)
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