Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna Pick, 06/06/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 118 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 6/4/2026

Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna

UFC Vegas 118

Meta APEX in Las Vegas

Saturday, June 6, 2026

Bryce Mitchell will enter the Octagon with Santiago Luna at UFC Vegas 118 on Saturday, June 6, 2026. The opening moneyline has Mitchell priced at -122 while Luna is coming in at +102.

Bryce "Thug Nasty" Mitchell walks into the cage with a record of 18-4-0. The 31-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and comes in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter has a wingspan of 70". Santiago "BorderBoy" Luna stands 5'9" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 8-0-0. The 21-year-old has an arm span of 74". Regarding significant strikes, Bryce Mitchell connects on 2.27 per min and Santiago Luna connects on 8.20 significant strikes per minute. Mitchell is landing 59% of the significant strikes he throws and Luna connects on 54%. In terms of defending themselves, "Thug Nasty" absorbs 1.60 significant strikes per minute and "BorderBoy" takes 3.82. Mitchell also deflects 58% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Luna prevents 71% of the shots thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Bryce Mitchell predictions best bet odds

UFC Vegas 118	Bryce Mitchell	Santiago Luna
Opening Odds	-122	+102
Record	18-4-0	8-0-0
Average Fight Time	11:35	8:54
Height	5'10"	5'9"
Weight	135 lbs	135 lbs
Reach	70"	74"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.27	8.20
Striking Accuracy	59%	54%

When it comes to grappling, Bryce Mitchell is the not as competent as a wrestler as he scores a takedown 3.24 times per 15 min. Mitchell is taking his opponents to the canvas on 36% of his attempts and thwarting 33% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Luna is taking his opponents down on 83% of his takedown tries and stuffing 50% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Mitchell is the more capable of the two fighters by going for 1.2 subs per 3 rds while Luna goes for 0.8 subs per 15 minutes.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Bryce Mitchell fought Said Nurmagomedov and took home the win via unanimous decision in round 3. Nurmagomedov landed 100 of 126 total strikes attempted in that fight. Mitchell ended the night having landed 39 of 51 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Nurmagomedov landed 20 of 32, which gave him a rate of 62%. He finished the fight landing 13 of 24 significant strikes aimed at the head. Statistically, Mitchell landed 65% of his significant strikes by connecting on 13 of 20. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 3 of 6 pointed at the head. 65% of the significant strikes connected on by Nurmagomedov and 38% of them landed by Mitchell were tallied at distance.

In the last bout for Santiago Luna, he went up against Angel Pacheco and wound up getting the victory by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Pacheco connected on 92% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Luna connected on 77% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Luna ended up landing 57% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 131 of 227. He ended up landing 97 of 176 significant strikes directed at the head. Pacheco landed 56 of 216 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he ended up landing 41 of 195 directed at the head. Relating to total strikes thrown in that contest, Pacheco was 77 of 238 while Luna ended up connecting on 155 of 257 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts on the card to keep an eye on

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Iwo Baraniewski squares up against Junior Tafa. Baraniewski looks to add a victory to his total of 8-0-0. The 27-year-old weighs in at 205 lbs and measures 6'0". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 73". Tafa measures in at 6'3" and will fight at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 7-5-0. The 29-year-old stretches 75". In terms of takedowns, Iwo Baraniewski is averaging a takedown 0.90 times per 15 minutes while Junior Tafa scores a takedown 0.50 times per 15 min. In the striking category, Baraniewski connects on 15.77 strikes per min and is landing 70% out of all the strikes he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Junior Tafa, who lands 53% of the strikes that he throws and connects on 3.62 per minute.

Another must see fight on the night is when Alessandro Costa is set to face off with Matt Schnell. Schnell walks into the Octagon with a record of 17-10-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old is fighting at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter reaches 70". Costa comes in at 5'4" and tips the scales at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a record of 15-5-0. The 30-year-old reaches 67". In terms of grappling, Matt Schnell is able to deflect 43% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is scoring a takedown on 45% of the times he tries. Costa is taking his opponents down on 26% of his tries and curbs 86% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the matter of striking, Schnell takes 4.11 strikes/min and he is connecting on 4.07 strikes per minute. Costa, moreover, absorbs 3.72 strikes/min and connects on 3.73 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Santiago Luna (+102)

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Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna Pick, 06/06/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 118 Odds

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