Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano Pick, 09/05/2026 Predictions UFC Paris Odds

Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano

UFC Paris

Accor Arena in Paris, France

Saturday, September 5, 2026

Daniil Donchenko will enter the Octagon against Punahele Soriano at UFC Paris on Saturday, September 5, 2026. The line has Donchenko priced at -249 while Soriano is at +206.

Daniil Donchenko looks to add a win to his record of 15-2-0. The 25-year-old records a weight of 170 lbs and measures in at 5' 11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 71". Punahele "Puna" Soriano stands in at 5' 11" and weighs 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 13-4-0. The 33-year-old extends his reach 72". In terms of significant strikes, Daniil Donchenko is landing 8.07 per minute and Punahele Soriano connects on 4.42 significant strikes per minute. Donchenko connects on 62% of the significant strikes he attempts while Soriano is landing 53%. Regarding defense, Donchenko allows 2.80 significant strikes per min while "Puna" absorbs 3.31. Donchenko also prevents 70% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Soriano is able to stop 47% of them.

Concerning takedowns, Daniil Donchenko is the lesser skilled grappler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 0.58 times per 15 minutes. Donchenko is finishing his takedown attempts on 33% of his attempts and thwarting 75% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Soriano is finishing his takedown tries on 51% of his takedown tries and thwarting 48% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Donchenko is the more capable of the two fighters by attempting 0.7 subs per 3 rounds while Soriano tries 0.1 subs per 15 min.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Daniil Donchenko fought Theodor Berggren and got a win for the night by way of a punch to the head in round 2. Berggren landed 29 of 71 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Donchenko ended the night having landed 73 of 109 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Berggren ended up landing 23 of 64, which gave him a rate of 35%. He ended up landing 15 of 50 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Donchenko ended up landing 66% of his significant strikes by landing 71 of 107. Of those significant strikes, he was 16 of 44 pointed at the head. 86% of the significant strikes landed by Berggren and 85% of them connected on by Donchenko were tallied at distance.

In the last fight for Punahele Soriano, he squared up with Ramiz Brahimaj and took home the victory by unanimous decision in round 3. Brahimaj connected on 92% of his significant strikes at distance while Soriano connected on 62% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Soriano ended up connecting on 43% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 40 of 92. He connected on 29 of 79 significant strikes directed at the head. Brahimaj connected on 38 of 67 significant strikes in that contest. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he ended up landing 16 of 42 aimed at the head. In regard to total strikes that he let go, Brahimaj landed 43 of 73 while Soriano connected on 66 of 123 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights on the card to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Morgan Charriere battles Felipe Lima. Charriere comes into this fight with a mark of 21-12-1. The 30-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and comes in at 5' 8". The orthodox fighter reaches 69". Lima stands in at 5' 6" and weighs in at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 14-2-0. The 28-year-old extends his reach 68". In terms of takedowns, Morgan Charriere takes his opponents to the canvas 2.06 times per 3 rds while Felipe Lima is able to score a takedown 2.18 times per 15 min. When talking about striking, Charriere is connecting on 4.02 strikes per minute and is landing 50% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side of the cage you've got Felipe Lima, who tags the opposition on 45% of the strikes that he throws and connects for an average of 2.86 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Muhammad Naimov is set to go up against Losene Keita. Keita looks to add a win to his career total of 16-2-0. The 28-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and measures in at 5' 7". The orthodox fighter stretches 72". Naimov stands in at 5' 9" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a record of 13-4-0. The 32-year-old has an arm span of 70". In terms of grappling, Losene Keita stops 85% of his opponents' takedown tries and is getting his opponent to the mat on 15% of the times he tries. Naimov is finishing his takedowns on 30% of his tries and is able to defend against 68% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With reference to striking, Keita absorbs 4.47 strikes per minute while he is dealing 3.47 strikes/min. Naimov, on the contrary, is absorbing 3.35 strikes/minute and dishes out 2.51 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Daniil Donchenko (-249)

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