Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia Pick, 06/14/2026 Predictions UFC Freedom 250 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 6/10/2026

Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia

UFC Freedom 250

South Lawn of the White House

Sunday, June 14, 2026

Diego Lopes will take on Steve Garcia at UFC Freedom 250 on Sunday, June 14, 2026. The opening odds have Lopes at -160 while Garcia is coming in at +140.

Diego Lopes comes into this bout holding a record of 27-8-0. The 31-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and comes in at 5'11". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 72". Steve "Mean Machine" Garcia measures in at 6'0" and will fight at 145 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a win to his record of 19-5-0. The 34-year-old has an arm span of 75". With respect to significant strikes, Diego Lopes lands 3.83 per minute while Steve Garcia lands 5.39 significant strikes per min. Lopes is connecting on 47% of the significant strikes he attempts and Garcia connects on 49%. When it comes to defending themselves, Lopes absorbs 4.56 significant strikes per min and "Mean Machine" absorbs 2.12. Lopes also stops 45% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Garcia is able to deflect 59% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Diego Lopes predictions best bet odds

UFC Freedom 250	Diego Lopes	Steve Garcia
Opening Odds	-160	+140
Record	27-8-0	19-5-0
Average Fight Time	11:58	5:50
Height	5'11"	6'0"
Weight	145 lbs	145 lbs
Reach	72"	75"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.83	5.39
Striking Accuracy	47%	49%

Concerning takedowns, Diego Lopes is the better grappler as he is able to score a takedown 0.88 times per 3 rds. Lopes is finishing his takedown attempts on 50% of his tries and thwarting 68% of all takedown tries against him. Garcia is taking his opponents down on 40% of his takedown attempts and stopping 88% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding subbing the opposition, Lopes is the more skilled technician by attempting 1.4 submissions per 15 min while Garcia attempts 0.4 submissions per 3 rds.

Today’s Featured MMA Best Bet!

You can get this top rated play complimentary when you set up a free $60 account here at Doc’s Sports and use part of it towards his a one day MMA package. Join Now!

Get all of our Free UFC Picks

In his last fight, Diego Lopes squared up with Alexander Volkanovski and walked away in defeat by way of unanimous decision in round 5. Volkanovski ended up landing 112 of 178 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Lopes ended the night having landed 74 of 162 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Volkanovski landed 98 of 160, which gave him a percentage of 61%. He ended up landing 72 of 118 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Lopes ended up landing 44% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 70 of 158. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he landed 33 of 98 aimed at the head. 89% of the significant strikes landed by Volkanovski and 94% of them landed by Lopes were tallied at distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Steve Garcia, he faced off with David Onama and wound up getting the victory by way of a punch to the head while on the ground in round 1. Onama connected on 100% of his significant strikes at distance while Garcia connected on 78% of his significant strikes at distance. Garcia ended up landing 53% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 33 of 62. He ended up landing 28 of 56 significant strikes aimed at the head. Onama ended up landing 2 of 16 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 1 of 14 aimed at the head. Regarding total strikes attempted in that contest, Onama ended up landing 2 of 16 while Garcia ended up landing 43 of 72 of all the strikes he threw.

Other bouts to keep an eye on

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Ilia Topuria encounters Justin Gaethje. Topuria steps into the cage holding a record of 17-0-0. The 29-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter stretches 69". Gaethje comes in at 5'11" and is fighting at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 27-5-0. The 37-year-old extends his reach 70". When it comes to grappling, Ilia Topuria takes his opponents to the mat 1.96 times per 15 minutes and Justin Gaethje is averaging a takedown 0.33 times per 15 min. Regarding striking, Topuria is connecting on 4.81 strikes per min and landing 48% of the strikes that he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is Justin Gaethje, who tags his opponent on 58% of the strikes he has tried and lands an average of 6.48 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Ciryl Gane is set to face off against Alex Pereira. Pereira holds a mark of 13-3-0. The 38-year-old records a weight of 205 lbs and measures in at 6'4". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 79". Gane measures 6'4" and is fighting at 247 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 13-2-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old has a wingspan of 81". In terms of grappling, Alex Pereira deflects 79% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 50% of his attempts. Gane is taking his opponents down on 25% of the attempts he tries and is able to deflect 47% of all takedown attempts. With regard to striking, Pereira is taking 3.50 strikes/min and he connects on 5.16 strikes per minute. Gane, moreover, is taking 2.33 strikes/min and deals 5.29 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Diego Lopes (-160)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here

Get all of Today's Free UFC Picks

Get all of Today's Expert UFC Picks

Pick:	Germany -3.5 (-120)
Start:	June 14, 2026 @ 1:00 PM
Expert:	Doc's Sports

Analysis:

Free World Cup Soccer Play from Doc’s Sports. Take Germany -3.5 (-120) over Curacao (1 p.m. EST, Sunday June 14) The expanded World Cup has 16 more sides at 48 compared to the 32 that competed in the past. Therefore, there will be a major talent disparity in some matchups. This is one of those matchups. A major change is that goal differential is not the main tiebreaker for the knockout stage. If two teams are tied on points, the first tiebreaker will be head-to- head matchups. This eliminates the need for clubs to run up the score, so we think there will be a lack of blowouts in this tournament. However, we do think this one will be ugly, as even the German subs will be taking target practice late against Curacao. The tiny island nation is playing in its first World Cup and is just happy to be here. This is the smallest nation ever to qualify for the big tournament. They will likely be embarrassed here, however. They will have a better chance for a little national pride in matches against Ivory Coast and Ecuador in Group E matches, but that probably means just scoring a goal, which is unlikely here against the German giants. Curacao looked horrible in their World Cup warmups, as they lost to China, Australia and Scotland with a goal differential of -9 (as of this writing, with one more warm up match). Germany is head and shoulders above those sides, and they should win this one by four or five goals without much effort. Read More Read Less

Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia Pick, 06/14/2026 Predictions UFC Freedom 250 Odds

Most Recent UFC Picks