Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim Pick, 10/10/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 122 Odds
Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim
UFC Vegas 122
Meta APEX in Las Vegas
Saturday, October 3, 2026
Francisco Prado will enter the Octagon with Ismael Bonfim at UFC Vegas 122 on Saturday, October 3, 2026. The line has Prado priced at -106 while Bonfim is priced at -110.
Francisco Prado will be looking to add a win to his career total of 12-5-0. The 24-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and measures 5'10". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 69". Ismael "Marreta" Bonfim comes in at 5'8" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career mark of 20-7-0. The 30-year-old reaches 71". In terms of significant strikes, Francisco Prado is connecting on 3.68 per minute while Ismael Bonfim connects on 5.10 significant strikes per minute. Prado connects on 43% of the significant strikes he tries and Bonfim connects on 54%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, Prado allows 4.31 significant strikes per min and "Marreta" takes 3.96. Prado also deflects 54% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way and Bonfim is able to stop 62% of the strikes thrown in his direction.
| UFC Vegas 122 | Francisco Prado | Ismael Bonfim |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -106 | -110 |
| Record | 12-5-0 | 20-7-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 13:11 | 8:46 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'8" |
| Weight | 155 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 69" | 71" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.68 | 5.10 |
| Striking Accuracy | 43% | 54% |
Regarding wrestling, Francisco Prado is the lesser skilled grappler as he takes his opponents down 0.76 times per 3 rds. Prado is taking his opponents to the canvas on 19% of the times he tries and stopping 40% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Bonfim is finishing his takedowns on 33% of the takedowns he tries and stuffing 76% of all takedowns attempted on him. In terms of going for the submission, Prado is the more experienced of the two fighters by attempting 0.8 subs per 15 min while Bonfim attempts 0.4 subs per 3 rds.
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In his previous fight, Francisco Prado went up against Charles Radtke and wound up losing the fight by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Radtke landed 121 of 164 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Prado ended the night having landed 41 of 79 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Radtke landed 24 of 47, giving him a percentage of 51%. He finished the fight landing 24 of 46 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Prado landed 43% of his significant strikes by sticking 29 of 66. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 16 of 46 to the head. 58% of the significant strikes connected on by Radtke and 58% of them landed by Prado were tallied at distance.
In the last fight for Ismael Bonfim, he went up against Axel Sola and wound up taking the loss by d'arce choke in round 1. Sola ended up landing 6% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Bonfim ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Bonfim ended up connecting on 33% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 1 of 3. He ended up connecting on 0 of 1 significant strikes directed at the head. Sola connected on 33 of 44 significant strikes in that battle. Of those significant strikes, he landed 31 of 42 aimed at the head. In regard to total strikes attempted in that fight, Sola ended up landing 77 of 96 and Bonfim connected on 1 of 3 total strikes.
Other bouts to keep an eye on
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Felipe Franco meets Brendson Ribeiro. Franco looks to add a victory to his career total of 11-2-0. The 25-year-old tips the scales at 205 lbs and stands in at 6'1". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 76". Ribeiro comes in at 6'3" and weighs in at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 17-11-0 (1 NC). The 30-year-old has a reach of 81". Regarding grappling, Felipe Franco takes his opponents down 3.70 times per 3 rounds and Brendson Ribeiro scores a takedown 0.66 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Franco is landing 2.55 strikes/min and is connecting on 57% of his attempted strikes. The other fighter in this bout is Brendson Ribeiro, who connects on 40% of his attempted strikes and is landing 2.94 per minute.
Another must see fight on the night is when RJ Harris is set to square up in the Octagon against Allen Frye Jr.. Frye Jr. steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 6-1-0. The 28-year-old is weighing in at 255 lbs and comes in at 6'5". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 80". Harris measures in at 6'3" and weighs 258 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 6-0-0. The 28-year-old reaches 78". In terms of grappling, Allen Frye Jr. defends against 15% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 15% of the times he tries. Harris is finishing his takedowns on 15% of the tries he takes and is able to thwart 15% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the matter of striking, Frye Jr. is absorbing 4.27 strikes per minute and he connects on 2.20 strikes per minute. Harris, moreover, takes 6.60 strikes/minute and is connecting on 9.00 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Ismael Bonfim (-110)
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