Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki Pick, 05/09/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 117 Odds

by Tony Sink - 5/8/2026

Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki

UFC Vegas 117

Meta APEX in Las Vegas

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Grant Dawson will take on Mateusz Rebecki at UFC Vegas 117 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. The opening line has Dawson coming in at -165 while Rebecki is coming in at +145.

Grant "KGD" Dawson walks into the Octagon with a mark of 23-3-1. The 32-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'10". The switch fighter has an arm span of 72". Mateusz Rebecki measures in at 5'7" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 20-4-0. The 33-year-old reaches 66". In terms of significant strikes, Grant Dawson connects on 3.21 per min while Mateusz Rebecki lands 5.21 significant strikes per minute. Dawson is landing 52% of the significant strikes he attempts while Rebecki lands 46%. Regarding defense, "KGD" takes 2.13 significant strikes per min while Rebecki absorbs 4.69. Dawson also curbs 44% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Rebecki stops 53% of the strikes thrown his way.

UFC Vegas 117	Grant Dawson	Mateusz Rebecki
Opening Odds	-165	+145
Record	23-3-1	20-4-0
Average Fight Time	10:45	11:05
Height	5'10"	5'7"
Weight	155 lbs	155 lbs
Reach	72"	66"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.21	5.21
Striking Accuracy	52%	46%

In the wrestling category, Grant Dawson is the more effective grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 3.81 times per 3 rds. Dawson is finishing his takedown attempts on 39% of his tries and is defending 57% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Rebecki is finishing his takedown tries on 52% of his takedown tries and stopping 50% of all takedowns attempted on him. When it comes to submission attempts, Dawson is the more experienced submission fighter by trying 1.1 submissions per 15 min while Rebecki attempts 0.5 submissions per 3 rounds.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Grant Dawson squared up with Manuel Torres and was on the losing end of this fight by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Torres landed 9 of 17 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Dawson walked away from this fight having landed 8 of 21 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Torres ended up landing 9 of 17, giving him a percentage of 52%. He ended up landing 5 of 12 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Dawson landed 38% of his significant strikes by connecting on 8 of 21. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 4 of 13 pointed at the head. 88% of the significant strikes connected on by Torres and 100% of them landed by Dawson were done at distance.

In the last bout for Mateusz Rebecki, he squared up with Ludovit Klein and was defeated by way of majority decision in round 3. Klein ended up connecting on 87% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Rebecki connected on 62% of his significant strikes at distance. Rebecki landed 45% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 72 of 159. He ended up connecting on 55 of 139 significant strikes directed at the head. Klein landed 82 of 140 significant strikes in that contest. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up connecting on 69 of 127 aimed at the head. In relation to total strikes that he let go in that fight, Klein landed 90 of 149 and Rebecki was 113 of 208 of all the strikes he attempted.

Other bouts on the card to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when Jim Miller fights Jared Gordon. Miller will be looking to add a win to his career total of 38-19-0 (1 NC). The 42-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and comes in at 5'8". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 71". Gordon stands 5'9" and weighs 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 21-8-0 (1 NC). The 37-year-old extends his reach 68". In the grappling category, Jim Miller gets his opposition to the mat 1.50 times per 3 rds and Jared Gordon scores a takedown 1.78 times per 3 rounds. When talking about striking, Miller lands 2.92 strikes per minute and is landing 42% of his attempted strikes. The other fighter in this bout is Jared Gordon, who connects on 53% of the strikes he has attempted and connects for an average of 5.64 per minute.

One more can't miss bout is when Marco Tulio is set to take on Roman Kopylov. Kopylov holds a career record of 14-5-0. The 34-year-old is fighting at 185 lbs and stands in at 6'0". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 75". Tulio comes in at 6'0" and is weighing in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career record of 14-2-0. The 31-year-old reaches 74". In the category of takedowns, Roman Kopylov deflects 88% of his opponents' takedown tries and is taking his opponents down on 47% of the times he tries. Tulio is finishing his takedown tries on 26% of the attempts he tries and prevents 15% of all takedown attempts. In the category of striking, Kopylov absorbs 5.18 strikes per minute while he is landing 4.59 per min. Tulio, notwithstanding, is taking 2.58 strikes/minute and deals 6.69 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Mateusz Rebecki (+145)

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Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki Pick, 05/09/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 117 Odds

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