Jake Matthews vs Carlston Harris Pick, 05/30/2026 Predictions UFC Macau Odds
Jake Matthews vs Carlston Harris
UFC Macau
Galaxy Arena in Macau, China
Saturday, May 30, 2026
Jake Matthews will take on Carlston Harris at UFC Macau on Saturday, May 30, 2026. The moneyline has Matthews coming in at -445 while Harris is priced at +345.
Jake "The Celtic Kid" Matthews walks into the Octagon holding a record of 22-8-0. The 31-year-old records a weight of 170 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 73". Carlston "Mocambique" Harris measures in at 6'0" and tips the scales at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 19-7-0. The 38-year-old has a reach of 76". In terms of significant strikes, Jake Matthews is connecting on 3.34 per min and Carlston Harris is landing 3.79 significant strikes per minute. Matthews lands 43% of the significant strikes he tries while Harris connects on 43%. When it comes to defending in the cage, "The Celtic Kid" allows 2.62 significant strikes per min while "Mocambique" takes 3.46. Matthews also curbs 60% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him while Harris deflects 54% of the strikes thrown in his direction.
| UFC Macau | Jake Matthews | Carlston Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -445 | +345 |
| Record | 22-8-0 | 19-7-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 11:20 | 7:19 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'0" |
| Weight | 170 lbs | 170 lbs |
| Reach | 73" | 76" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.34 | 3.79 |
| Striking Accuracy | 43% | 43% |
In terms of takedowns, Jake Matthews is the lesser skilled wrestler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 1.44 times per 15 minutes. Matthews is getting his opponent to the mat on 41% of the times he tries and stopping 64% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Harris is scoring a takedown on 22% of his takedown attempts and is stuffing 55% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Matthews is the more experienced of the two fighters by attempting 0.8 finishes per 15 min while Harris tries 0.6 finishes per 3 rds.
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The last time he fought, Jake Matthews squared up with Neil Magny and wound up taking the loss by a d'arce choke in round 3. Magny landed 73 of 103 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Matthews ended the night having landed 28 of 54 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Magny landed 31 of 57, giving him a percentage of 54%. He finished the fight landing 28 of 52 significant strikes to the head. In terms of stats for the opponent, Matthews landed 40% of his significant strikes by connecting on 18 of 44. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he connected on 11 of 36 aimed at the head. 93% of the significant strikes landed by Magny and 83% of them connected on by Matthews were done at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Carlston Harris, he squared up with Santiago Ponzinibbio and took a loss on the night by a punch to the head in round 3. Ponzinibbio ended up connecting on 94% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Harris ended up connecting on 100% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Harris landed 37% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 73 of 196. He ended up landing 40 of 142 significant strikes aimed at the head. Ponzinibbio ended up landing 76 of 175 significant strikes in that fight. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 57 of 151 directed at the head. In relation to total strikes that he threw in that fight, Ponzinibbio landed 76 of 175 and Harris ended up connecting on 78 of 211 total strikes.
Other fights on the card to keep an eye on
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Alex Perez squares up with Su Mudaerji. Perez will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 26-10-0. The 34-year-old is fighting at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 65". Mudaerji stands in at 5'8" and steps on the scale at 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 19-7-0. The 30-year-old has an arm span of 72". In terms of takedowns, Alex Perez gets his opposition to the mat 2.21 times per 15 min while Su Mudaerji is able to score a takedown 0.67 times per 3 rounds. In the striking category, Perez connects on 4.41 strikes/min and lands 46% of his attempted strikes. Joining him in the Octagon is Su Mudaerji, who connects on 50% of the strikes he has attempted and connects on 4.43 per min.
Another bout to watch is when Jose Souza is set to square up in the Octagon against Ding Meng. Meng looks to add a victory to his record of 35-9-0. The 31-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs and stands in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 73". Souza comes in at 6'3" and weighs 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career record of 8-1-0. The 24-year-old extends his reach 79". When it comes to takedowns, Ding Meng is able to curb 15% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is taking his opponents down on 50% of his tries. Souza is taking his opponents to the mat on 15% of the tries he takes and is able to defend against 15% of all takedown attempts. With regard to striking, Meng absorbs 3.87 strikes per minute and he is connecting on 3.40 strikes/minute. Souza, on the other side, takes 5.79 strikes per min and deals 3.45 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Jake Matthews (-445)
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