Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov Pick, 05/09/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 117 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 5/8/2026

Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov

UFC Vegas 117

Meta APEX in Las Vegas

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Joel Alvarez will battle Yaroslav Amosov at UFC Vegas 117 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. The opening moneyline has Alvarez coming in at +145 while Amosov is at -170.

Joel "El Fenomeno" Alvarez will be looking to add a win to his record of 23-3-0. The 33-year-old is fighting at 170 lbs and stands in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 77". Yaroslav Amosov measures in at 6'0" and is weighing in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 29-1-0. The 32-year-old stretches 75". Concerning significant strikes, Joel Alvarez connects on 4.78 per minute while Yaroslav Amosov is connecting on 2.78 significant strikes per min. Alvarez is landing 55% of the significant strikes he throws and Amosov lands 47%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, "El Fenomeno" absorbs 3.07 significant strikes per min and Amosov absorbs 1.55. Alvarez also prevents 54% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Amosov is able to stop 54% of the strikes thrown his way.

UFC Vegas 117	Joel Alvarez	Yaroslav Amosov
Opening Odds	+145	-170
Record	23-3-0	29-1-0
Average Fight Time	7:52	3:14
Height	6'3"	6'0"
Weight	170 lbs	170 lbs
Reach	77"	75"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.78	2.78
Striking Accuracy	55%	47%

Concerning wrestling, Joel Alvarez is not as efficient of a grappler as he is averaging a takedown 0.19 times per 3 rounds. Alvarez is taking his opponents to the canvas on 33% of his tries and thwarting 47% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. Amosov is finishing his takedowns on 50% of the takedowns he attempts and defending 15% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding submissions, Alvarez is less apt at going for the finish by going for 1.1 submissions per 3 rds while Amosov goes for 4.6 submissions per 3 rds.

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In his previous bout, Joel Alvarez faced Vicente Luque and got a win for the night via unanimous decision in round 3. Luque ended up landing 31 of 101 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Alvarez finished this fight landing 197 of 288 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Luque ended up landing 30 of 99, giving him a percentage of 30%. He finished the fight landing 16 of 74 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Alvarez ended up landing 60% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 89 of 148. Of all the significant strikes, he connected on 74 of 130 pointed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Luque and 61% of them connected on by Alvarez were done at distance.

In the last fight for Yaroslav Amosov, he faced off with Neil Magny and wound up getting the win via an anaconda choke in round 1. Magny landed 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Amosov connected on 88% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Amosov ended up connecting on 47% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 9 of 19. He ended up connecting on 3 of 12 significant strikes aimed at the head. Magny connected on 5 of 11 significant strikes in that contest. Of all the significant strikes, he connected on 2 of 8 aimed at the head. In terms of total strikes that he let go in that fight, Magny landed 15 of 24 while Amosov ended up landing 13 of 27 total strikes.

Other bouts to watch

An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Grant Dawson squares up against Mateusz Rebecki. Dawson walks into the Octagon with a mark of 23-3-1. The 32-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and measures in at 5'10". The switch fighter has an arm span of 72". Rebecki measures in at 5'7" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 20-4-0. The 33-year-old reaches 66". In the grappling category, Grant Dawson gets his opposition to the mat 3.81 times per 3 rds and Mateusz Rebecki takes his opponents to the canvas 3.38 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Dawson connects on 3.21 strikes/min and is landing 52% of his attempted strikes. On the other side of the cage you've got Mateusz Rebecki, who is landing 46% of his attempted strikes and is landing 5.21 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Jared Gordon is set to square up with Jim Miller. Miller will be looking to add a win to his career total of 38-19-0 (1 NC). The 42-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and comes in at 5'8". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 71". Gordon stands 5'9" and weighs 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 21-8-0 (1 NC). The 37-year-old extends his reach 68". When it comes to takedowns, Jim Miller is able to curb 48% of the takedowns his opponents try and is finishing his takedowns on 45% of the times he tries. Gordon is finishing his takedowns on 32% of his tries and stops 60% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With reference to striking, Miller is absorbing 3.44 strikes per minute and he lands 2.92 strikes/min. Gordon, on the contrary, takes 4.14 strikes/minute and dishes out 5.64 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Joel Alvarez (+145)

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Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov Pick, 05/09/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 117 Odds

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