John Castaneda vs Mark Vologdin Pick, 04/18/2026 Predictions UFC Winnipeg Odds
John Castaneda vs Mark Vologdin
UFC Winnipeg
Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg
Saturday, April 18, 2026
John Castaneda will enter the Octagon against Mark Vologdin at UFC Winnipeg on Saturday, April 18, 2026. The opener has Castaneda at -125 while Vologdin is priced at +105.
John "Sexi Mexi" Castaneda has a career record of 21-8-0. The 34-year-old records a weight of 135 lbs and measures 5'6". The switch fighter stretches 71". Mark Vologdin stands in at 5'3" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his record of 12-4-1. The 25-year-old reaches 65". Regarding significant strikes, John Castaneda connects on 4.42 per minute and Mark Vologdin is connecting on 7.80 significant strikes per min. Castaneda is connecting on 50% of the significant strikes he attempts while Vologdin lands 52%. In terms of defending in the cage, "Sexi Mexi" absorbs 4.94 significant strikes per minute while Vologdin absorbs 11.00. Castaneda also stops 53% of the significant strikes that are directed at him and Vologdin is able to defend against 34% of the strikes thrown his way.
| UFC Winnipeg | John Castaneda | Mark Vologdin |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -125 | +105 |
| Record | 21-8-0 | 12-4-1 |
| Average Fight Time | 12:52 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'6" | 5'3" |
| Weight | 135 lbs | 135 lbs |
| Reach | 71" | 65" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.42 | 7.80 |
| Striking Accuracy | 50% | 52% |
When it comes to wrestling, John Castaneda is the more productive wrestler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 1.68 times per 3 rounds. Castaneda is taking his opponents to the canvas on 37% of his attempts and thwarting 73% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Vologdin is taking his opponents to the canvas on 15% of the takedowns he tries and thwarting 57% of all takedowns attempted on him. Regarding going for the sub, Castaneda is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by attempting 0.1 finishes per 15 minutes while Vologdin tries 0.7 finishes per 3 rds.
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In his last bout, John Castaneda squared up with Chris Gutierrez and ended up walking away in defeat by split decision in round 3. Gutierrez ended up landing 65 of 112 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Castaneda finished this fight landing 76 of 118 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Gutierrez landed 46 of 85, which means his percentage was 54%. He finished the fight landing 20 of 50 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, Castaneda landed 53% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 41 of 77. Of those significant strikes, he connected on 16 of 34 pointed at the head. 95% of the significant strikes connected on by Gutierrez and 87% of them connected on by Castaneda were done at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Mark Vologdin, he went up against Juan Adrian Martinetti and walked away in defeat via unanimous decision in round 3. Martinetti ended up landing 55% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Vologdin ended up landing 82% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Vologdin ended up landing 52% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 117 of 225. He ended up landing 82 of 183 significant strikes to the head. Martinetti landed 165 of 252 significant strikes in that fight. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up landing 90 of 153 to the head. When discussing total strikes thrown, Martinetti ended up connecting on 223 of 329 and Vologdin was 192 of 303 total strikes.
Other fights on the card to watch
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Jasmine Jasudavicius takes on Karine Silva. Jasudavicius will be looking to add a victory to her career record of 14-4-0. The 37-year-old weighs 125 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter extends her reach 68". Silva measures 5'5" and is weighing in at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 19-6-0. The 32-year-old extends her reach 67". Regarding grappling, Jasmine Jasudavicius takes her opponents to the mat 2.59 times per 15 min and Karine Silva is able to score a takedown 2.30 times per 15 min. In terms of striking, Jasudavicius is connecting on 3.70 strikes/min and landing 45% of the strikes that she throws. On the other side of the cage we have Karine Silva, who is landing 39% of the strikes she attempts and is connecting on 2.48 per minute.
If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Daria Zhelezniakova is set to face off against Melissa Croden. Croden steps into the cage with a mark of 7-3-0. The 35-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter extends her reach 68". Zhelezniakova measures in at 5'9" and is weighing in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to her career record of 10-2-0. The 30-year-old extends her reach 68". Regarding takedowns, Melissa Croden deflects 66% of the takedowns her opponents try and is taking her opponents to the canvas on 50% of her tries. Zhelezniakova is taking her opponents to the mat on 80% of her tries and thwarts 50% of all takedown attempts. With reference to striking, Croden absorbs 1.83 strikes per minute and she is dealing 4.10 strikes per min. Zhelezniakova, at the same time, takes 2.83 strikes per min and is landing 4.75 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take John Castaneda (-125)
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