Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi Pick, 06/06/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 118 Odds
Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi
UFC Vegas 118
Meta APEX in Las Vegas
Saturday, June 6, 2026
Ketlen Souza will enter the Octagon with Ariane Carnelossi at UFC Vegas 118 on Saturday, June 6, 2026. The opening moneyline has Souza priced at -300 while Carnelossi is coming in at +250.
Ketlen "Esquentadinha" Souza comes into this fight holding a mark of 16-6-0. The 31-year-old tips the scales at 115 lbs and measures in at 5'3". The orthodox fighter stretches 63". Ariane "Sorriso" Carnelossi measures 5'2" and weighs in at 115 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this bout with a mark of 15-4-0. The 33-year-old reaches 61". When talking about significant strikes, Ketlen Souza lands 4.01 per minute and Ariane Carnelossi is landing 2.63 significant strikes per min. Souza connects on 56% of the significant strikes she attempts while Carnelossi lands 38%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, "Esquentadinha" allows 3.86 significant strikes per minute while "Sorriso" allows 4.61. Souza also thwarts 52% of the significant strikes her opponents throw at her and Carnelossi thwarts 44% of the shots thrown in her direction.
| UFC Vegas 118 | Ketlen Souza | Ariane Carnelossi |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -300 | +250 |
| Record | 16-6-0 | 15-4-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 10:48 | 11:32 |
| Height | 5'3" | 5'2" |
| Weight | 115 lbs | 115 lbs |
| Reach | 63" | 61" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.01 | 2.63 |
| Striking Accuracy | 56% | 38% |
When it comes to grappling, Ketlen Souza is not as efficient of a grappler as she takes her opponents to the canvas 0.46 times per 15 min. Souza is scoring a takedown on 13% of the times she tries and stopping 53% of the takedowns her opponents try. Carnelossi is getting her opponent to the mat on 50% of the takedowns she attempts and is defending 22% of the attempts against her. In terms of subbing the opposition, Souza is the more able fighter by trying 0.3 submissions per 15 min while Carnelossi tries 0.2 submissions per 15 min.
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In her last fight, Ketlen Souza went up against Bruna Brasil and ended up winning this fight via unanimous decision in round 3. Brasil ended up landing 65 of 101 total strikes that she let go. Souza ended the night having landed 64 of 109 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Brasil landed 31 of 60, which gave her a rate of 51%. She landed 10 of 32 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Souza ended up landing 47% of the significant strikes she threw by landing 33 of 69. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, she was 18 of 42 pointed at the head. 80% of the significant strikes connected on by Brasil and 72% of them landed by Souza were thrown at distance.
In the last bout for Ariane Carnelossi, she went up against Talita Alencar and was on the losing end of this fight by way of rear naked choke in round 3. Alencar ended up connecting on 51% of her significant strikes at distance while Carnelossi landed 100% of the significant strikes she took from distance. Carnelossi ended up landing 32% of the significant strikes she attempted by connecting on 25 of 76. She ended up landing 10 of 57 significant strikes directed at the head. Alencar ended up connecting on 60 of 100 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, she connected on 34 of 67 aimed at the head. Relating to total strikes thrown, Alencar was 79 of 122 while Carnelossi connected on 50 of 106 total strikes.
Other fights on the card to watch
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Belal Muhammad encounters Gabriel Bonfim. Muhammad steps into the cage holding a mark of 24-5-0 (1 NC). The 37-year-old records a weight of 170 lbs and measures 5'11". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 72". Bonfim comes in at 6'1" and is fighting at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a mark of 19-1-0. The 28-year-old stretches 72". Regarding grappling, Belal Muhammad takes his opponents to the canvas 2.14 times per 15 minutes while Gabriel Bonfim gets a takedown 3.60 times per 3 rounds. Regarding striking, Muhammad connects on 4.43 strikes per minute and lands 43% of the strikes that he attempts. Joining him in the Octagon is Gabriel Bonfim, who tags his opponent on 46% of the strikes he has tried and is connecting on 4.61 per minute.
An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Edmen Shahbazyan is set to square up in the Octagon against Brendan Allen. Allen walks into the cage holding a record of 26-7-0. The 30-year-old records a weight of 185 lbs and stands in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 75". Shahbazyan comes in at 6'2" and records a weight of 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 16-5-0. The 28-year-old has a reach of 74". Concerning grappling, Brendan Allen is able to deflect 56% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is finishing his takedowns on 42% of his tries. Shahbazyan is finishing his takedowns on 37% of his tries and is able to thwart 66% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With reference to striking, Allen is absorbing 3.62 strikes/min and he connects on 3.59 per minute. Shahbazyan, in contrast, takes 3.60 strikes per min and is connecting on 3.80 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Ketlen Souza (-300)
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