Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Perez Pick, 10/17/2026 Predictions UFC Edmonton Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 10/13/2026

Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Perez

UFC Edmonton

Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta

Saturday, October 17, 2026

Kyle Nelson will enter the Octagon against Cristian Perez at UFC Edmonton on Saturday, October 17, 2026. The moneyline has Nelson at +250 while Perez is at -300.

Kyle "The Monster" Nelson will be looking to add a victory to his record of 17-7-1. The 35-year-old is fighting at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'11". The switch fighter stretches 71". Cristian "Puas" Perez stands 5'9" and is weighing in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a record of 15-2-0. The 27-year-old stretches 72". Regarding significant strikes, Kyle Nelson connects on 3.60 per minute while Cristian Perez lands 3.30 significant strikes per min. Nelson is landing 45% of the significant strikes he attempts while Perez connects on 46%. When it comes to defending in the cage, "The Monster" allows 4.58 significant strikes per minute and "Puas" absorbs 4.56. Nelson also deflects 53% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Perez curbs 39% of the strikes thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Kyle Nelson predictions best bet odds

UFC Edmonton	Kyle Nelson	Cristian Perez
Opening Odds	+250	-300
Record	17-7-1	15-2-0
Average Fight Time	9:34	9:33
Height	5'11"	5'9"
Weight	155 lbs	155 lbs
Reach	71"	72"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.60	3.30
Striking Accuracy	45%	46%

In the category of takedowns, Kyle Nelson is the not as competent as a grappler as he scores a takedown 1.18 times per 15 min. Nelson is taking his opponents to the canvas on 23% of the times he tries and stuffing 66% of all takedown attempts. Perez is scoring a takedown on 30% of his takedown tries and stuffing 87% of the attempts against him. In terms of submissions, Nelson is the lesser skilled of the two fighters by trying 0.5 submissions per 15 min while Perez tries 0.8 submissions per 15 minutes.

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In his previous fight, Kyle Nelson fought Terrance McKinney and was defeated by way of punches to the head in round 1. McKinney landed 15 of 29 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Nelson finished this fight landing 1 of 3 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, McKinney ended up landing 13 of 27, which gave him a percentage of 48%. He ended up landing 12 of 26 significant strikes to the head. On the other side, Nelson landed 33% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 1 of 3. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 0 of 2 to the head. 38% of the significant strikes connected on by McKinney and 100% of them connected on by Nelson were thrown at distance.

In the last fight for Cristian Perez, he went up against Logan Paxton and wound up taking home the win by a punch to the head in round 2. Paxton ended up landing 77% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Perez ended up landing 63% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Perez connected on 47% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 46 of 97. He ended up landing 24 of 67 significant strikes to the head. Paxton landed 45 of 71 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 32 of 57 aimed at the head. Relating to the strikes he fired off in this contest, Paxton was 58 of 90 while Perez landed 51 of 103 total strikes.

Other fights on the card to keep an eye on

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Marc-Andre Barriault faces off against Kyle Daukaus. Barriault will be looking to add a victory to his career record of 17-11-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and measures in at 6'1". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 74". Daukaus measures in at 6'2" and weighs 185 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the cage with a record of 17-5-0 (1 NC). The 33-year-old has a wingspan of 76". When it comes to grappling, Marc-Andre Barriault is able to score a takedown 0.34 times per 3 rounds while Kyle Daukaus takes his opponents to the mat 1.97 times per 15 minutes. In terms of striking, Barriault connects on 5.65 strikes per min and landing 47% of his attempted strikes. On the other side we have Kyle Daukaus, who tags his opponent on 53% of the strikes he has tried and connects for an average of 3.16 per min.

One more can't miss bout is when Timmy Cuamba is set to square up in the Octagon with Louis Jourdain. Jourdain steps into the cage with a record of 9-3-0. The 29-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and comes in at 5'9". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 69". Cuamba comes in at 5'9" and weighs in at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 10-4-0. The 27-year-old has a wingspan of 71". When it comes to takedowns, Louis Jourdain thwarts 66% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is taking his opponents to the mat on 15% of the times he tries. Cuamba is finishing his takedowns on 31% of his attempts and is able to thwart 71% of the takedowns his opponents try. With regard to striking, Jourdain is absorbing 2.44 strikes per minute and he dishes out 7.32 strikes per minute. Cuamba, on the contrary, absorbs 3.72 strikes per min and is dealing 2.88 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Kyle Nelson (+250)

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Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Perez Pick, 10/17/2026 Predictions UFC Edmonton Odds

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