Mateusz Gamrot vs Esteban Ribovics Pick, 04/11/2026 Predictions UFC 327 Odds
Mateusz Gamrot vs Esteban Ribovics
UFC 327
Kaseya Center in Miami
Saturday, April 11, 2026
Mateusz Gamrot will battle Esteban Ribovics at UFC 327 on Saturday, April 11, 2026. The opening line has Gamrot priced at -180 while Ribovics is priced at +155.
Mateusz "Gamer" Gamrot comes into this bout holding a record of 25-4-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'10". The southpaw fighter has a reach of 70". Esteban "El Gringo" Ribovics measures 5'10" and weighs 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a mark of 15-2-0. The 29-year-old extends his reach 69". With respect to significant strikes, Mateusz Gamrot is connecting on 3.29 per min and Esteban Ribovics is landing 8.09 significant strikes per min. Gamrot is landing 51% of the significant strikes he attempts while Ribovics connects on 43%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, "Gamer" allows 2.96 significant strikes per min while "El Gringo" allows 6.30. Gamrot also stops 59% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Ribovics prevents 54% of them.
| UFC 327 | Mateusz Gamrot | Esteban Ribovics |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -180 | +155 |
| Record | 25-4-0 (1 NC) | 15-2-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 12:09 | 11:01 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'10" |
| Weight | 155 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 70" | 69" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.29 | 8.09 |
| Striking Accuracy | 51% | 43% |
When it comes to grappling, Mateusz Gamrot is the more skilled wrestler as he is averaging a takedown 5.15 times per 15 minutes. Gamrot is scoring a takedown on 37% of his attempts and is defending 83% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Ribovics is finishing his takedown attempts on 66% of his takedown tries and stopping 70% of the tries against him. Regarding going for the sub, Gamrot is not as skilled of a technician by trying 0.1 subs per 3 rounds while Ribovics goes for 0.2 subs per 15 minutes.
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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Mateusz Gamrot fought Charles Oliveira and walked away with a loss via rear naked choke in round 2. Oliveira landed 18 of 40 of the strikes he threw in total in this fight. Gamrot walked away from this fight having landed 18 of 43 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Oliveira ended up landing 11 of 33, which means his percentage was 33%. He finished the fight landing 4 of 21 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Gamrot landed 42% of his significant strikes by sticking 18 of 42. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 16 of 40 pointed at the head. 90% of the significant strikes landed by Oliveira and 100% of them connected on by Gamrot were tallied at distance.
In the last bout for Esteban Ribovics, he squared up with Elves Brener and got a win for the night via unanimous decision in round 3. Brener ended up connecting on 100% of his significant strikes at distance while Ribovics landed 93% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Ribovics landed 43% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 122 of 281. He connected on 86 of 233 significant strikes aimed at the head. Brener ended up connecting on 118 of 250 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, he landed 88 of 211 to the head. Relating to the strikes he fired off in this contest, Brener was 123 of 256 and Ribovics connected on 123 of 284 total strikes.
Other bouts to watch out for
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Chris Padilla squares up with MarQuel Mederos. Padilla steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 17-6-0. The 30-year-old tips the scales at 155 lbs and stands 5'9". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 74". Mederos measures in at 5'10" and will fight at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 11-1-0. The 29-year-old has a wingspan of 69". In terms of takedowns, Chris Padilla takes his opponents to the mat 1.18 times per 15 minutes and MarQuel Mederos is averaging a takedown 0.80 times per 3 rds. When it comes to striking, Padilla is connecting on 4.78 strikes per min and is connecting on 54% of the strikes that he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is MarQuel Mederos, who is landing 56% of the strikes he has tried and lands an average of 4.84 per minute.
If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Vicente Luque is set to battle Kelvin Gastelum. Gastelum will be looking to add a victory to his career total of 21-10-0 (1 NC). The 34-year-old tips the scales at 185 lbs and measures 5'9". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 71". Luque measures in at 5'11" and is weighing in at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon holding a record of 23-12-1. The 34-year-old reaches 75". Concerning wrestling, Kelvin Gastelum thwarts 60% of his opponents' takedown tries and is finishing his takedowns on 34% of the times he tries. Luque is taking his opponents down on 48% of the tries he takes and deflects 60% of all takedown attempts. With regard to striking, Gastelum takes 3.53 strikes/min while he is dishing out 3.67 strikes/min. Luque, on the contrary, absorbs 5.30 strikes per minute and is dishing out 4.83 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Esteban Ribovics (+155)
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