Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert Pick, 10/10/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 122 Odds
Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert
UFC Vegas 122
Meta APEX in Las Vegas
Saturday, October 3, 2026
Matheus Camilo will face off against Jai Herbert at UFC Vegas 122 on Saturday, October 3, 2026. The opener has Camilo coming in at -195 while Herbert is at +165.
Matheus "Jaguar" Camilo steps into the cage holding a record of 11-3-0. The 25-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 69". Jai "Black Country Banger" Herbert stands in at 6'1" and steps on the scale at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a mark of 14-6-1. The 38-year-old reaches 77". When talking about significant strikes, Matheus Camilo connects on 2.22 per minute while Jai Herbert is connecting on 3.19 significant strikes per min. Camilo is landing 43% of the significant strikes he attempts while Herbert connects on 41%. Concerning the fighter's defense, "Jaguar" takes 3.05 significant strikes per min and "Black Country Banger" absorbs 3.34. Camilo also curbs 66% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Herbert thwarts 52% of the strikes thrown in his direction.
| UFC Vegas 122 | Matheus Camilo | Jai Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -195 | +165 |
| Record | 11-3-0 | 14-6-1 |
| Average Fight Time | 8:25 | 10:42 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'1" |
| Weight | 155 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 69" | 77" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.22 | 3.19 |
| Striking Accuracy | 43% | 41% |
Regarding wrestling, Matheus Camilo is the more efficient wrestler as he takes his opponents down 4.16 times per 3 rounds. Camilo is getting his opponent to the mat on 53% of his attempts and stuffing 15% of all takedown attempts. Herbert is getting his opponent to the mat on 21% of his takedown attempts and stuffing 66% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. When it comes to going for the sub, Camilo is the more experienced submission fighter by attempting 0.6 finishes per 3 rds while Herbert looks to get 0.3 finishes per 3 rounds.
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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Matheus Camilo fought Nazim Sadykhov and ended up getting the victory via a punch to the head in round 1. Sadykhov ended up landing 0 of 16 total strikes attempted in that fight. Camilo ended the night having landed 4 of 10 total strikes. In the significant strikes category, Sadykhov ended up landing 0 of 16, which gave him a percentage of 0%. He ended up landing 0 of 10 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side of the cage, Camilo ended up landing 40% of his significant strikes by landing 4 of 10. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he was 3 of 8 to the head. 33% of the significant strikes landed by Sadykhov and 50% of them connected on by Camilo were done at distance.
In the last fight for Jai Herbert, he faced off with Mandel Nallo and got a win for the night by a punch to the head while on the ground in round 1. Nallo ended up connecting on 93% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Herbert ended up landing 36% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Herbert landed 67% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 19 of 28. He landed 18 of 27 significant strikes to the head. Nallo connected on 16 of 31 significant strikes in that fight. Of all the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 13 of 28 directed at the head. Discussing total strikes that he threw in that fight, Nallo ended up connecting on 16 of 31 and Herbert ended up landing 30 of 43 of all the strikes he attempted.
Other fights to watch out for
One more match to look forward to is when Andre Fili faces off with Kai Kamaka III. Fili steps into the cage holding a mark of 25-14-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and stands 5'11". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 74". Kamaka III comes in at 5'7" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career record of 18-8-1. The 31-year-old has a wingspan of 69". When it comes to grappling, Andre Fili is averaging a takedown 2.24 times per 15 min and Kai Kamaka III takes his opponents to the canvas 1.45 times per 15 minutes. When it comes to striking, Fili is connecting on 3.89 strikes/minute and connecting on 37% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side of the cage you've got Kai Kamaka III, who is connecting on 59% of the strikes that he throws and lands an average of 5.49 per min.
If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Otari Tanzilovi is set to fight Malcolm Wellmaker. Wellmaker has a career mark of 10-2-0. The 32-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and stands 5'10". The switch fighter has an arm span of 71". Tanzilovi measures in at 5'9" and records a weight of 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter holds a career record of 10-2-0. The 28-year-old has a wingspan of 70". Regarding takedowns, Malcolm Wellmaker is stopping 46% of the takedowns fighters have attempted and is finishing his takedown tries on 15% of the times he tries. Tanzilovi is taking his opponents to the mat on 36% of his attempts and curbs 85% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. With reference to striking, Wellmaker takes 4.23 strikes/minute and he connects on 4.58 per min. Tanzilovi, on the contrary, takes 4.20 strikes per minute and deals 4.20 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Jai Herbert (+165)
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