Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa Pick, 06/06/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 118 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 6/4/2026

Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa

UFC Vegas 118

Meta APEX in Las Vegas

Saturday, June 6, 2026

Matt Schnell will enter the Octagon against Alessandro Costa at UFC Vegas 118 on Saturday, June 6, 2026. The opening line has Schnell at +425 while Costa is priced at -600.

Matt "Danger" Schnell walks into the Octagon with a record of 17-10-0 (1 NC). The 36-year-old is fighting at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter reaches 70". Alessandro "Nono" Costa comes in at 5'4" and tips the scales at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a record of 15-5-0. The 30-year-old reaches 67". In the category of significant strikes, Matt Schnell connects on 4.07 per minute and Alessandro Costa is landing 3.73 significant strikes per min. Schnell is landing 40% of the significant strikes he attempts while Costa is landing 45%. When it comes to defending in the Octagon, "Danger" allows 4.11 significant strikes per minute and "Nono" takes 3.72. Schnell also defends against 55% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt while Costa defends against 56% of the shots thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Matt Schnell predictions best bet odds

UFC Vegas 118	Matt Schnell	Alessandro Costa
Opening Odds	+425	-600
Record	17-10-0 (1 NC)	15-5-0
Average Fight Time	7:46	10:48
Height	5'8"	5'4"
Weight	125 lbs	125 lbs
Reach	70"	67"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.07	3.73
Striking Accuracy	40%	45%

In the category of takedowns, Matt Schnell is the lesser skilled wrestler as he takes his opponents down 0.60 times per 3 rds. Schnell is finishing his takedown attempts on 45% of the times he tries and is defending 43% of all takedown tries against him. Costa is taking his opponents to the mat on 26% of the takedowns he tries and thwarting 86% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding submission attempts, Schnell is the more able fighter by attempting 1.2 finishes per 15 minutes while Costa attempts 0.4 finishes per 15 minutes.

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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Matt Schnell faced Joseph Morales and took a loss on the night by way of guillotine choke in round 1. Morales ended up landing 12 of 18 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Schnell finished this fight landing 5 of 12 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Morales landed 5 of 11, which means his percentage was 45%. He ended up landing 4 of 10 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, Schnell ended up landing 36% of his significant strikes by landing 4 of 11. Of all the significant strikes, he was 1 of 8 aimed at the head. 40% of the significant strikes connected on by Morales and 100% of them connected on by Schnell were done at distance.

In the last fight for Alessandro Costa, he squared up with Stewart Nicoll and ended up getting the win via a punch to the body in round 2. Nicoll ended up landing 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Costa ended up landing 95% of his significant strikes at distance. Costa ended up connecting on 48% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 43 of 89. He ended up connecting on 26 of 67 significant strikes aimed at the head. Nicoll ended up landing 47 of 99 significant strikes in that fight. Of those significant strikes, he connected on 26 of 73 aimed at the head. Regarding total strikes that he let go in that fight, Nicoll was 47 of 99 while Costa was 47 of 97 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other fights on the card to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Marcus McGhee encounters John Yannis. McGhee comes into this bout holding a record of 10-2-0. The 36-year-old steps on the scale at 135 lbs and stands 5'8". The orthodox fighter reaches 69". Yannis stands 5'7" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The southpaw fighter has a record of 10-4-0. The 31-year-old extends his reach 70". In the grappling category, Marcus McGhee takes his opponents down 0.31 times per 15 min while John Yannis is averaging a takedown 0.70 times per 3 rds. In the striking category, McGhee is connecting on 5.50 strikes per minute and landing 45% of the strikes that he attempts. The other fighter in this bout is John Yannis, who is connecting on 53% of the strikes that he throws and lands 3.30 per min.

If you're into fun fights, you're going to want to see when Edgar Chairez is set to fight Bruno Silva. Silva walks into the Octagon holding a mark of 15-8-2 (1 NC). The 36-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'4". The orthodox fighter reaches 65". Chairez stands in at 5'7" and tips the scales at 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter has a career mark of 13-6-0 (1 NC). The 30-year-old has a wingspan of 71". Concerning grappling, Bruno Silva is preventing 72% of his opponents' takedown attempts and is getting his opponent to the mat on 25% of his attempts. Chairez is finishing his takedowns on 15% of his tries and curbs 38% of all takedown attempts. Concerning striking, Silva is absorbing 4.69 strikes per min and he connects on 3.95 strikes/min. Chairez, on the other side, is taking 4.75 strikes/minute and connects on 3.65 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Alessandro Costa (-600)

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Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa Pick, 06/06/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 118 Odds

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