Matthieu Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias Pick, 09/05/2026 Predictions UFC Paris Odds
Matthieu Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias
UFC Paris
Accor Arena in Paris, France
Saturday, September 5, 2026
Matthieu Duclos will enter the Octagon against Luis Felipe Dias at UFC Paris on Saturday, September 5, 2026. The opening odds have Duclos coming in at -120 while Dias is priced at +100.
Matthieu Duclos holds a career mark of 10-3-0. The 31-year-old records a weight of 185 lbs and measures in at 6' 3". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 77". Luis Dias Felipe stands in at 5' 10" and is fighting at 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon with a record of 18-5-0. The 31-year-old has an arm span of 74". Regarding significant strikes, Matthieu Duclos is landing 3.93 per min and Luis Felipe Dias connects on 2.86 significant strikes per min. Duclos is landing 37% of the significant strikes he tries and Felipe Dias connects on 45%. Regarding defending in the Octagon, Duclos absorbs 6.81 significant strikes per min while Dias allows 2.71. Duclos also curbs 46% of the significant strikes his opponents attempt and Felipe Dias is able to stop 55% of the shots thrown in his direction.
| UFC Paris | Matthieu Duclos | Luis Felipe Dias |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -120 | +100 |
| Record | 10-3-0 | 18-5-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 7:38 | 6:39 |
| Height | 6' 3" | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 185 lbs | 185 lbs |
| Reach | 77" | 74" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.93 | 2.86 |
| Striking Accuracy | 37% | 45% |
In the wrestling category, Matthieu Duclos is not as effective of a grappler as he takes his opponents down 0.90 times per 3 rds. Duclos is taking his opponents to the canvas on 15% of the times he tries and is defending 85% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Felipe Dias is finishing his takedown tries on 57% of his takedown tries and thwarting 66% of the attempts against him. Regarding subbing the opposition, Duclos is less likely to go for the finish by attempting 0.4 finishes per 15 minutes while Felipe Dias tries 1.1 finishes per 3 rds.
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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Matthieu Duclos went up against Marco Tulio and took a loss on the night by a spinning back kick in round 2. Tulio ended up landing 64 of 109 total strikes that he let go in that fight. Duclos finished this fight landing 36 of 89 total strikes. In terms of significant strikes, Tulio ended up landing 52 of 97, which gave him a percentage of 53%. He landed 16 of 57 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Duclos ended up landing 37% of his significant strikes by connecting on 30 of 81. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 18 of 59 pointed at the head. 76% of the significant strikes connected on by Tulio and 96% of them connected on by Duclos were thrown at a distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Luis Felipe Dias, he fought YiSak Lee and ended up getting the victory via a punch to the head in round 1. Lee connected on 100% of the significant strikes he took from distance while Dias connected on 85% of his significant strikes at distance. Dias connected on 52% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 21 of 40. He ended up connecting on 14 of 31 significant strikes to the head. Lee landed 10 of 25 significant strikes in that battle. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he landed 3 of 15 to the head. In relation to total strikes that he let go, Lee was 10 of 25 and Dias was 21 of 40 of all the strikes he attempted.
Other bouts to watch
Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Nora Cornolle enters the Octagon against Klaudia Sygula. Cornolle steps into the cage holding a mark of 9-4-0. The 36-year-old steps on the scale at 135 lbs and measures in at 5' 7". The orthodox fighter reaches 67". Sygula measures 5' 8" and weighs 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to her total of 8-2-0. The 27-year-old extends her reach 69". When it comes to grappling, Nora Cornolle takes her opponents to the mat 0.22 times per 15 min while Klaudia Sygula takes her opponents to the canvas 0.41 times per 3 rds. In the striking category, Cornolle is connecting on 2.73 strikes/min and connects on 55% of the strikes that she throws. On the other side we have Klaudia Sygula, who is landing 48% of the strikes she attempts and connects on 7.27 per min.
One more can't miss bout is when Axel Sola is set to square up in the Octagon against Fares Ziam. Ziam will be looking to add a win to his record of 18-5-0. The 29-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and stands in at 6' 1". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 75". Sola measures 6' 0" and tips the scales at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 12-1-1. The 28-year-old stretches 74". In the category of takedowns, Fares Ziam defends against 70% of the takedowns his opponents attempt and is scoring a takedown on 42% of his attempts. Sola is finishing his takedown tries on 36% of his attempts and is able to stop 66% of all takedown attempts. With regard to striking, Ziam takes 1.58 strikes per minute and he is connecting on 2.68 strikes/minute. Sola, on the contrary, is taking 4.53 strikes/min and deals 4.50 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Matthieu Duclos (-120)
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