Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima Pick, 09/05/2026 Predictions UFC Paris Odds
Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima
UFC Paris
Accor Arena in Paris, France
Saturday, September 5, 2026
Morgan Charriere will enter the Octagon with Felipe Lima at UFC Paris on Saturday, September 5, 2026. The line has Charriere at +160 while Lima is priced at -183.
Morgan "The Last Pirate" Charriere comes into this fight with a mark of 21-12-1. The 30-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and comes in at 5' 8". The orthodox fighter reaches 69". Felipe "Jungle Boy" Lima stands in at 5' 6" and weighs in at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 14-2-0. The 28-year-old extends his reach 68". In the category of significant strikes, Morgan Charriere is landing 4.02 per min while Felipe Lima connects on 2.86 significant strikes per min. Charriere connects on 50% of the significant strikes he attempts and Lima lands 45%. When it comes to defending themselves, "The Last Pirate" allows 4.51 significant strikes per minute while "Jungle Boy" takes 2.91. Charriere also stops 53% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Lima is able to curb 64% of the strikes thrown in his direction.
| UFC Paris | Morgan Charriere | Felipe Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +160 | -183 |
| Record | 21-12-1 | 14-2-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 8:30 | 13:45 |
| Height | 5' 8" | 5' 6" |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 145 lbs |
| Reach | 69" | 68" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.02 | 2.86 |
| Striking Accuracy | 50% | 45% |
When it comes to wrestling, Morgan Charriere is not as effective of a grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 2.06 times per 15 min. Charriere is finishing his takedown attempts on 46% of the times he tries and thwarting 83% of the takedowns his opponents try. Lima is taking his opponents to the canvas on 27% of the takedowns he attempts and thwarting 85% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. In terms of going for the submission, Charriere is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by attempting 0.3 finishes per 15 min while Lima tries 0.7 finishes per 3 rds.
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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Morgan Charriere faced Melquizael Costa and walked away in defeat via a kick to the head in round 1. Costa landed 4 of 9 total strikes that he let go. Charriere finished this fight landing 2 of 4 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Costa landed 4 of 9, which gave him a percentage of 44%. He ended up landing 1 of 3 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the cage, Charriere ended up landing 50% of his significant strikes by connecting on 2 of 4. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 0 of 2 aimed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Costa and 100% of them connected on by Charriere were done at distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Felipe Lima, he battled Payton Talbott and wound up taking the loss by way of unanimous decision in round 3. Talbott connected on 62% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Lima connected on 80% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Lima ended up connecting on 44% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 26 of 58. He connected on 17 of 48 significant strikes directed at the head. Talbott connected on 59 of 118 significant strikes in that fight. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up landing 48 of 103 directed at the head. In regard to total strikes thrown in that contest, Talbott ended up landing 97 of 165 while Lima was 37 of 70 of all the strikes he attempted.
Other bouts on the card to watch
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Losene Keita enters the Octagon against Muhammad Naimov. Keita looks to add a win to his career total of 16-2-0. The 28-year-old tips the scales at 145 lbs and measures in at 5' 7". The orthodox fighter stretches 72". Naimov stands in at 5' 9" and is fighting at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a record of 13-4-0. The 32-year-old has an arm span of 70". In the grappling category, Losene Keita is averaging a takedown 0.80 times per 15 min and Muhammad Naimov is able to score a takedown 1.49 times per 15 min. Regarding striking, Keita connects for an average of 3.47 strikes per min and is landing 43% of the strikes that he throws. On the other side we have Muhammad Naimov, who is connecting on 40% of the strikes that he throws and connects on 2.51 per minute.
If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Ryan Spann is set to square up in the Octagon with Mario Pinto. Pinto steps into the cage holding a record of 12-0-0. The 28-year-old weighs 265 lbs and measures 6' 5". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 79". Spann measures 6' 5" and weighs 264 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a victory to his career record of 24-11-0. The 35-year-old has an arm span of 79". Regarding takedowns, Mario Pinto deflects 85% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is scoring a takedown on 26% of his attempts. Spann is finishing his takedowns on 34% of the tries he takes and is able to deflect 59% of all takedown tries against him. With reference to striking, Pinto takes 1.93 strikes per min while he is dishing out 2.85 strikes per min. Spann, notwithstanding, is absorbing 3.92 strikes/min and deals 3.11 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Felipe Lima (-183)
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