Rafa Garcia vs Zhu Rong Pick, 09/12/2026 Predictions Noche UFC 4 Odds
Rafa Garcia vs Zhu Rong
Noche UFC 4
Accor Arena in Paris, France
Saturday, September 12, 2026
Rafa Garcia will face off with Zhu Rong at Noche UFC 4 on Saturday, September 12, 2026. The opening line has Garcia coming in at +172 while Rong is coming in at -197.
Rafa "Gifted" Garcia walks into the cage with a record of 19-4-0. The 32-year-old weighs 155 lbs and measures 5'7". The orthodox fighter reaches 70". Zhu Rong measures 5'9" and is fighting at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 28-6-0. The 26-year-old extends his reach 70". Regarding significant strikes, Rafa Garcia is connecting on 4.28 per min and Zhu Rong is connecting on 6.05 significant strikes per minute. Garcia lands 44% of the significant strikes he throws and Rong lands 51%. In terms of the fighter's defense, "Gifted" absorbs 4.42 significant strikes per min and Rong allows 5.38. Garcia also prevents 61% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Rong prevents 53% of the strikes thrown in his direction.
| Noche UFC 4 | Rafa Garcia | Zhu Rong |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +172 | -197 |
| Record | 19-4-0 | 28-6-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 13:33 | 11:12 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'9" |
| Weight | 155 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 70" | 70" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.28 | 6.05 |
| Striking Accuracy | 44% | 51% |
Regarding takedowns, Rafa Garcia is the more effective grappler as he gets a takedown 3.22 times per 3 rounds. Garcia is scoring a takedown on 45% of his attempts and is defending 77% of the takedowns his opponents try. Rong is taking his opponents to the mat on 62% of the takedowns he tries and thwarting 84% of all takedowns attempted by his opposition. Regarding subbing opponents, Garcia is the more capable of the two fighters by trying 0.4 submissions per 3 rds while Rong attempts 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes.
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In his previous bout, Rafa Garcia squared up with Alexander Hernandez and wound up getting the victory via unanimous decision in round 3. Hernandez ended up landing 54 of 149 total strikes attempted in that contest. Garcia finished this fight landing 79 of 194 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Hernandez landed 50 of 145, which gave him a rate of 34%. He finished the fight landing 40 of 126 significant strikes to the head. On the other side of the Octagon, Garcia landed 34% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 59 of 169. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 52 of 161 pointed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes landed by Hernandez and 96% of them landed by Garcia were done at distance.
In the last fight for Zhu Rong, he faced off with Victor Martinez and got a win for the night by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Martinez connected on 0% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Rong ended up landing 72% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Rong landed 84% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 11 of 13. He connected on 7 of 9 significant strikes to the head. Martinez landed 0 of 3 significant strikes in that fight. In regard to the placement of these significant strikes, he connected on 0 of 1 directed at the head. In terms of total strikes that he let go in that contest, Martinez landed 0 of 3 while Rong ended up connecting on 11 of 13 of all the strikes he attempted.
Other fights to watch
An additional bout that shouldn't be missed is when Manon Fiorot squares up in the Octagon against Alexa Grasso. Fiorot steps into the cage with a mark of 13-2-0. The 36-year-old records a weight of 125 lbs and comes in at 5'7". The orthodox fighter reaches 65". Grasso stands 5'5" and weighs 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 17-5-1. The 33-year-old extends her reach 66". In the grappling category, Manon Fiorot is able to score a takedown 1.05 times per 15 minutes and Alexa Grasso takes her opponents to the canvas 0.40 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Fiorot connects for an average of 5.66 strikes/minute and lands 42% out of all the strikes she attempts. On the other side we have Alexa Grasso, who is landing 41% of the strikes she attempts and connects on 4.11 per min.
Another must see fight on the night is when Regina Tarin is set to enter the Octagon with JJ Aldrich. Aldrich looks to add a victory to her total of 15-7-0. The 33-year-old tips the scales at 125 lbs and comes in at 5'5". The southpaw fighter reaches 67". Tarin comes in at 5'7" and is fighting at 125 lbs. The southpaw fighter holds a career mark of 8-0-0. The 21-year-old reaches 66". Regarding wrestling, JJ Aldrich is able to deflect 67% of her opponents takedown tries and is getting her opponent to the mat on 25% of her tries. Tarin is taking her opponents to the mat on 33% of her tries and stops 50% of all takedown tries against her. With regard to striking, Aldrich absorbs 4.34 strikes/minute while she is landing 3.92 per min. Tarin, at the same time, absorbs 7.00 strikes per min and dishes out 7.60 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Zhu Rong (-197)
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