Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando Pick, 08/15/2026 Predictions UFC 330 Odds
Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando
UFC 330
Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia
Saturday, August 15, 2026
Rafael Tobias will take on Lucas Fernando at UFC 330 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. The line has Tobias coming in at +192 while Fernando is priced at -230.
Rafael "Bipolar" Tobias comes into this fight with a record of 14-2-0. The 23-year-old steps on the scale at 205 lbs and stands 6'2". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 74". Lucas Fernando measures 6'3" and weighs 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a mark of 13-3-0. The 29-year-old reaches 80". Concerning significant strikes, Rafael Tobias is connecting on 2.77 per min and Lucas Fernando connects on 1.87 significant strikes per min. Tobias connects on 36% of the significant strikes he throws and Fernando connects on 51%. In terms of defending in the Octagon, "Bipolar" takes 5.81 significant strikes per min while Fernando allows 4.73. Tobias also prevents 35% of the significant strikes his opponents throw his way while Fernando is able to stop 38% of the shots thrown his way.
| UFC 330 | Rafael Tobias | Lucas Fernando |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | +192 | -230 |
| Record | 14-2-0 | 13-3-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 9:23 | 15:00 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight | 205 lbs | 205 lbs |
| Reach | 74" | 80" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.77 | 1.87 |
| Striking Accuracy | 36% | 51% |
In the wrestling category, Rafael Tobias is the not as competent as a grappler as he takes his opponents down 2.40 times per 15 minutes. Tobias is getting his opponent to the mat on 33% of his tries and thwarting 85% of all takedowns attempted on him. Fernando is scoring a takedown on 30% of his takedown tries and is stopping 15% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Tobias is the more skilled technician by attempting 1.6 finishes per 15 min while Fernando attempts 1.0 submission per 3 rds.
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The last time he stepped into the Octagon, Rafael Tobias went up against Diyar Nurgozhay and walked away in defeat via unanimous decision in round 3. Nurgozhay ended up landing 100 of 150 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Tobias ended the night having landed 52 of 114 total strikes. In regard to significant strikes, Nurgozhay ended up landing 94 of 143, which gave him a rate of 65%. He landed 33 of 71 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Tobias landed 38% of his significant strikes by landing 39 of 101. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he was 29 of 86 aimed at the head. 86% of the significant strikes landed by Nurgozhay and 66% of them connected on by Tobias were tallied at distance.
In the last fight for Lucas Fernando, he fought Cesar Almeida and was defeated via unanimous decision in round 3. Almeida ended up landing 25% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance while Fernando ended up connecting on 92% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Fernando ended up landing 51% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 28 of 54. He ended up landing 16 of 42 significant strikes aimed at the head. Almeida landed 71 of 116 significant strikes in that battle. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he ended up landing 42 of 79 aimed at the head. Discussing total strikes attempted in that fight, Almeida was 96 of 146 while Fernando ended up connecting on 38 of 69 total strikes.
Other fights to watch out for
Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Neil Magny squares up against Ramiz Brahimaj. Magny looks to add a victory to his career total of 31-15-0. The 39-year-old weighs 170 lbs and measures in at 6'3". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 80". Brahimaj stands 5'10" and tips the scales at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage with a mark of 13-6-0. The 33-year-old reaches 72". In terms of takedowns, Neil Magny takes his opponents to the canvas 2.17 times per 15 min and Ramiz Brahimaj is able to score a takedown 1.99 times per 3 rds. When talking about striking, Magny lands 3.40 strikes per min and lands 46% out of all the strikes he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Ramiz Brahimaj, who tags his opponent on 48% of the strikes he attempts and is connecting on 2.29 per min.
An additional fight that you're going to want to see is when Myktybek Orolbai is set to fight Jeremiah Wells. Wells looks to add a victory to his record of 13-4-1. The 39-year-old tips the scales at 170 lbs and stands in at 5'9". The switch fighter stretches 74". Orolbai stands in at 5'10" and weighs 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 16-2-1. The 28-year-old reaches 74". Concerning grappling, Jeremiah Wells is preventing 50% of the takedowns his opponents try and is finishing his takedown attempts on 46% of his attempts. Orolbai is taking his opponents to the mat on 59% of his attempts and thwarts 40% of takedowns his opponents have tried. With regard to striking, Wells is absorbing 1.28 strikes per min while he deals 2.35 strikes/minute. Orolbai, on the other hand, takes 2.70 strikes per minute and is landing 2.78 per minute.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Tony Sink's Pick: Take Lucas Fernando (-230)
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