Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos Pick, 09/26/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 121 Odds
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos
UFC Vegas 121
Meta Apex in Las Vegas
Saturday, September 26, 2026
Raul Rosas Jr. will battle Raoni Barcelos at UFC Vegas 121 on Saturday, September 26, 2026. The opening odds have Jr. priced at -181 while Barcelos is at +154.
Raul "El Nino Problema" Rosas Jr. steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 12-1-0. The 21-year-old weighs in at 135 lbs and stands 5'9". The switch fighter stretches 67". Raoni Barcelos measures 5'7" and tips the scales at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the Octagon with a record of 22-5-0. The 39-year-old reaches 67". With respect to significant strikes, Raul Rosas Jr. is landing 1.34 per minute while Raoni Barcelos is landing 4.65 significant strikes per min. Rosas Jr. is landing 42% of the significant strikes he tries and Barcelos is connecting on 51%. When it comes to defending themselves, "El Nino Problema" allows 1.24 significant strikes per min while Barcelos takes 4.24. Rosas Jr. also stops 52% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Barcelos deflects 60% of the strikes thrown in his direction.
| UFC Vegas 121 | Raul Rosas Jr. | Raoni Barcelos |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -181 | +154 |
| Record | 12-1-0 | 22-5-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 10:45 | 13:09 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight | 135 lbs | 135 lbs |
| Reach | 67" | 67" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 1.34 | 4.65 |
| Striking Accuracy | 42% | 51% |
Concerning grappling, Raul Rosas Jr. is the more capable grappler as he is averaging a takedown 6.10 times per 15 minutes. Rosas Jr. is getting his opponent to the mat on 54% of his attempts and defending 25% of all takedowns attempted on him. Barcelos is getting his opponent to the mat on 31% of the takedowns he attempts and thwarting 87% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding submission attempts, Rosas Jr. is the more apt fighter by going for 0.9 submissions per 3 rds while Barcelos tries 0.7 submissions per 15 minutes.
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In his previous bout, Raul Rosas Jr. went up against Rob Font and wound up getting the win via unanimous decision in round 3. Font landed 29 of 50 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Jr. walked away from this fight having landed 47 of 75 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Font ended up landing 10 of 31, which gave him a rate of 32%. He ended up landing 6 of 25 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, Jr. landed 24% of his significant strikes by connecting on 8 of 33. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he connected on 5 of 29 pointed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Font and 100% of them landed by Jr. were done at a distance.
In the last bout for Raoni Barcelos, he went up against Montel Jackson and ended up getting the win by way of split decision in round 3. Jackson connected on 74% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance while Barcelos landed 61% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Barcelos connected on 55% of the significant strikes he attempted by landing 21 of 38. He ended up connecting on 7 of 18 significant strikes to the head. Jackson ended up landing 35 of 66 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up landing 26 of 57 aimed at the head. In relation to the strikes he fired off in this contest, Jackson landed 72 of 104 and Barcelos ended up connecting on 33 of 51 total strikes.
Other fights on the card to watch
Another fight that you're going to want to watch is when Rodolfo Vieira squares up with Robert Bryczek. Vieira steps into the cage with a mark of 11-5-0. The 36-year-old steps on the scale at 185 lbs and measures in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter stretches 73". Bryczek stands in at 6'0" and records a weight of 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a record of 18-7-0. The 36-year-old has a reach of 75". Regarding grappling, Rodolfo Vieira takes his opponents to the canvas 2.87 times per 15 min and Robert Bryczek gets a takedown 0.36 times per 3 rds. When talking about striking, Vieira connects for an average of 3.43 strikes per minute and is landing 54% out of all the strikes he attempts. On the other side of the cage you've got Robert Bryczek, who tags his opponent on 37% of the strikes he attempts and is landing 2.80 per minute.
Another bout to watch is when Rinya Nakamura is set to battle Brady Hiestand. Hiestand holds a career record of 9-2-0. The 27-year-old is fighting at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 71". Nakamura stands 5'7" and is fighting at 135 lbs. The southpaw fighter steps into the Octagon holding a record of 10-1-0. The 31-year-old has a wingspan of 68". Concerning wrestling, Brady Hiestand is able to thwart 42% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 46% of the times he tries. Nakamura is taking his opponents down on 81% of his attempts and deflects 85% of takedowns his opponents have tried. In the category of striking, Hiestand takes 3.75 strikes per min while he connects on 2.70 strikes per min. Nakamura, on the other hand, is absorbing 1.72 strikes per minute and is dealing 3.27 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Raul Rosas Jr. (-181)
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