Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards Pick, 09/26/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 121 Odds
Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards
UFC Vegas 121
Meta Apex in Las Vegas
Saturday, September 26, 2026
Rodolfo Bellato will enter the Octagon with Christian Edwards at UFC Vegas 121 on Saturday, September 26, 2026. The moneyline has Bellato coming in at -175 while Edwards is at +149.
Rodolfo "Trator" Bellato comes into this bout holding a record of 13-3-1 (1 NC). The 30-year-old is fighting at 205 lbs and measures 6'3". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 75". Christian "Pain" Edwards stands 6'5" and records a weight of 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 8-5-0. The 27-year-old extends his reach 78". Regarding significant strikes, Rodolfo Bellato is connecting on 5.37 per min and Christian Edwards is connecting on 2.40 significant strikes per minute. Bellato is connecting on 60% of the significant strikes he throws and Edwards is connecting on 50%. Regarding defending in the cage, "Trator" allows 5.86 significant strikes per minute and "Pain" takes 2.40. Bellato also defends against 46% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction and Edwards is able to curb 55% of the strikes thrown his way.
| UFC Vegas 121 | Rodolfo Bellato | Christian Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -175 | +149 |
| Record | 13-3-1 (1 NC) | 8-5-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 9:20 | 15:00 |
| Height | 6'3" | 6'5" |
| Weight | 205 lbs | 205 lbs |
| Reach | 75" | 78" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.37 | 2.40 |
| Striking Accuracy | 60% | 50% |
Concerning wrestling, Rodolfo Bellato is the more productive wrestler as he takes his opponents to the canvas 1.38 times per 3 rds. Bellato is getting his opponent to the mat on 35% of the times he tries and stuffing 94% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Edwards is taking his opponents to the mat on 15% of his takedown attempts and stopping 15% of the attempts against him. When it comes to submission attempts, Bellato is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by trying 0.2 finishes per 15 minutes while Edwards tries 0.8 finishes per 15 minutes.
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In his previous fight, Rodolfo Bellato fought Luke Fernandez and wound up getting the win via punches to the head in round 1. Fernandez landed 26 of 43 total strikes that he threw in that contest. Bellato ended the night having landed 32 of 48 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Fernandez landed 16 of 33, which means his percentage was 48%. He finished the fight landing 12 of 28 significant strikes aimed at the head. On the other side, Bellato ended up landing 65% of his significant strikes by landing 30 of 46. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he was 24 of 39 aimed at the head. 56% of the significant strikes connected on by Fernandez and 30% of them landed by Bellato were done at a distance.
In the last Octagon appearance for Christian Edwards, he went up against Modestas Bukauskas and ended up losing the fight via split decision in round 3. Bukauskas ended up connecting on 83% of his significant strikes at distance and Edwards ended up connecting on 75% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Edwards ended up connecting on 50% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 36 of 71. He connected on 13 of 41 significant strikes to the head. Bukauskas ended up landing 36 of 80 significant strikes in that contest. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he ended up connecting on 21 of 64 to the head. In terms of total strikes attempted in that contest, Bukauskas was 52 of 99 and Edwards ended up connecting on 51 of 89 of the strikes he threw in total.
Other bouts on the card to watch
One more match to look forward to is when Elves Brener faces off against Josiah Harrell. Brener looks to add a victory to his total of 16-6-0. The 28-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and stands 5'10". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 72". Harrell comes in at 5'7" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a victory to his total of 11-1-0. The 27-year-old reaches 68". When it comes to grappling, Elves Brener takes his opponents to the mat 0.99 times per 3 rds and Josiah Harrell takes his opponents to the mat 0.40 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Brener lands an average of 4.76 strikes per minute and lands 47% of the strikes that he attempts. The other guy in this fight is Josiah Harrell, who connects on 50% of the strikes that he throws and lands 2.32 per minute.
Another must see fight on the night is when Ricky Simon is set to enter the Octagon with Montel Jackson. Jackson walks into the cage holding a record of 15-4-0. The 34-year-old is weighing in at 135 lbs and stands 5'10". The southpaw fighter has an arm span of 75". Simon stands 5'6" and records a weight of 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his record of 22-7-1. The 34-year-old reaches 69". In terms of grappling, Montel Jackson is able to deflect 67% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 63% of his tries. Simon is finishing his takedowns on 41% of the tries he takes and is able to defend against 76% of the takedowns his opponents try. In the matter of striking, Jackson absorbs 1.40 strikes per minute and he lands 3.02 strikes per minute. Simon, notwithstanding, is absorbing 3.90 strikes per minute and is connecting on 3.03 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Christian Edwards (+149)
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