Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson Pick, 07/25/2026 Predictions UFC Abu Dhabi Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 7/22/2026

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson

UFC Abu Dhabi

Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi

Saturday, July 25, 2026

Santiago Ponzinibbio will face off against Sam Patterson at UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, July 25, 2026. The moneyline has Ponzinibbio coming in at +300 while Patterson is coming in at -400.

Santiago "Argentine Dagger" Ponzinibbio steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 31-9-0. The 39-year-old steps on the scale at 170 lbs and measures in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 73". Sam Patterson stands in at 6'3" and is weighing in at 170 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage holding a record of 14-3-1. The 30-year-old has a wingspan of 78". With respect to significant strikes, Santiago Ponzinibbio lands 4.78 per minute and Sam Patterson connects on 2.62 significant strikes per min. Ponzinibbio is landing 41% of the significant strikes he tries and Patterson is connecting on 37%. Concerning their defense in the Octagon, "Argentine Dagger" allows 4.68 significant strikes per min while Patterson takes 3.06. Ponzinibbio also thwarts 61% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Patterson is able to stop 50% of the shots thrown in his direction.

ufc picks Santiago Ponzinibbio predictions best bet odds

UFC Abu Dhabi	Santiago Ponzinibbio	Sam Patterson
Opening Odds	+300	-400
Record	31-9-0	14-3-1
Average Fight Time	11:20	5:14
Height	6'0"	6'3"
Weight	170 lbs	170 lbs
Reach	73"	78"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.78	2.62
Striking Accuracy	41%	37%

In terms of takedowns, Santiago Ponzinibbio is not as effective of a wrestler as he is able to score a takedown 0.60 times per 15 minutes. Ponzinibbio is taking his opponents to the canvas on 27% of his tries and is stopping 71% of all takedowns attempted on him. Patterson is scoring a takedown on 50% of the takedowns he attempts and defending 33% of the attempts against him. Regarding going for the sub, Ponzinibbio is less likely to go for the finish by attempting 0.8 finishes per 15 min while Patterson tries 1.6 finishes per 15 min.

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In his last appearance in the Octagon, Santiago Ponzinibbio squared up with Daniel Rodriguez and walked away with a loss by way of a punch to the head in round 3. Rodriguez ended up landing 70 of 170 total strikes that he threw in that fight. Ponzinibbio walked away from this fight having landed 50 of 115 total strikes. In the category of significant strikes, Rodriguez landed 66 of 166, which gave him a rate of 39%. He finished the fight landing 39 of 131 significant strikes directed at the head. On the other side, Ponzinibbio landed 44% of his significant strikes by connecting on 49 of 111. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 31 of 83 pointed at the head. 96% of the significant strikes landed by Rodriguez and 100% of them landed by Ponzinibbio were done at distance.

In the last bout for Sam Patterson, he squared up with Michael Page and was on the losing end of this fight by unanimous decision in round 3. Page connected on 100% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance and Patterson ended up connecting on 83% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance. Patterson landed 18% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 12 of 64. He connected on 4 of 50 significant strikes to the head. Page landed 27 of 55 significant strikes in that fight. Of all the significant strikes, he landed 17 of 38 aimed at the head. When discussing total strikes that he let go, Page ended up landing 33 of 61 while Patterson connected on 25 of 78 of the strikes he threw in total.

Other bouts to watch out for

One more match to look forward to is when Ismael Bonfim enters the Octagon against Axel Sola. Bonfim steps into the cage with a mark of 20-6-0. The 30-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and stands in at 5'8". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 71". Sola measures 6'0" and tips the scales at 155 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a victory to his career total of 11-1-1. The 28-year-old extends his reach 74". Regarding grappling, Ismael Bonfim is averaging a takedown 1.06 times per 15 min while Axel Sola takes his opponents to the mat 2.22 times per 3 rounds. In terms of striking, Bonfim connects on 5.51 strikes per min and is landing 54% of his attempted strikes. The other fighter in this bout is Axel Sola, who is landing 45% of his attempted strikes and connects for an average of 4.07 per min.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Mike Davis is set to square up against Nurullo Aliev. Aliev has a career mark of 11-0-0. The 25-year-old steps on the scale at 155 lbs and comes in at 5'10". The orthodox fighter has an arm span of 72". Davis stands 6'0" and weighs in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his total of 12-3-0. The 33-year-old stretches 72". In terms of grappling, Nurullo Aliev thwarts 80% of the takedowns his opponents go for and is taking his opponents to the canvas on 43% of his tries. Davis is taking his opponents down on 44% of his attempts and thwarts 60% of the takedowns his opponents attempt. In the matter of striking, Aliev is taking 1.63 strikes per minute while he dishes out 2.72 strikes/minute. Davis, notwithstanding, is absorbing 5.23 strikes per min and lands 4.73 per minute.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Sam Patterson (-400)

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Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Sam Patterson Pick, 07/25/2026 Predictions UFC Abu Dhabi Odds

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