Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley Pick, 05/09/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 117 Odds

by Guy Bruhn - 5/8/2026

Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley

UFC Vegas 117

Meta APEX in Las Vegas

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Sean Brady will battle Joaquin Buckley at UFC Vegas 117 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. The odds have Brady coming in at -150 while Buckley is at +130.

Sean Brady walks into the Octagon holding a record of 18-2-0. The 33-year-old weighs in at 170 lbs and comes in at 5'10". The orthodox fighter stretches 72". Joaquin "New Mansa" Buckley measures in at 5'10" and steps on the scale at 170 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a win to his career total of 21-7-0. The 32-year-old extends his reach 76". When talking about significant strikes, Sean Brady is connecting on 3.96 per minute while Joaquin Buckley connects on 3.88 significant strikes per minute. Brady lands 55% of the significant strikes he throws while Buckley connects on 36%. When it comes to defending in the cage, Brady absorbs 3.05 significant strikes per min while "New Mansa" takes 2.93. Brady also deflects 59% of the significant strikes that are thrown his way while Buckley thwarts 59% of them.

UFC Vegas 117	Sean Brady	Joaquin Buckley
Opening Odds	-150	+130
Record	18-2-0	21-7-0
Average Fight Time	13:11	11:33
Height	5'10"	5'10"
Weight	170 lbs	170 lbs
Reach	72"	76"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	3.96	3.88
Striking Accuracy	55%	36%

Regarding grappling, Sean Brady is the more productive grappler as he takes his opponents down 3.53 times per 15 min. Brady is getting his opponent to the mat on 53% of the times he tries and is stopping 86% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Buckley is getting his opponent to the mat on 45% of the takedowns he attempts and stopping 72% of the tries against him. Regarding going for the sub, Brady is the more capable of the two fighters by trying 0.9 subs per 15 minutes while Buckley tries 0.1 subs per 15 minutes.

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In his last bout, Sean Brady fought Michael Morales and walked away with a loss by way of a punch to the head in round 1. Morales landed 24 of 52 of the strikes he let go in total for this contest. Brady finished this fight landing 8 of 22 total strikes. When talking about significant strikes, Morales landed 24 of 52, giving him a percentage of 46%. He ended up landing 24 of 50 significant strikes to the head. Statistically, Brady ended up landing 36% of his significant strikes by connecting on 8 of 22. Of those significant strikes, he was 5 of 15 to the head. 87% of the significant strikes connected on by Morales and 100% of them connected on by Brady were done at a distance.

In the last Octagon appearance for Joaquin Buckley, he faced off with Kamaru Usman and walked away with a loss by unanimous decision in round 5. Usman landed 53% of the significant strikes he attempted at distance and Buckley ended up landing 93% of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Buckley landed 29% of his significant strikes attempted by landing 44 of 148. He connected on 29 of 130 significant strikes to the head. Usman connected on 41 of 99 significant strikes in that battle. Out of those significant strikes, he ended up landing 33 of 89 to the head. Regarding total strikes thrown, Usman ended up landing 137 of 243 and Buckley ended up landing 51 of 156 total strikes.

Other fights to watch

Another fight to keep an eye on is when King Green squares up with Jeremy Stephens. Green will be looking to add a victory to his record of 34-17-1 (1 NC). The 39-year-old weighs in at 155 lbs and stands 5'10". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 71". Stephens stands in at 5'9" and is weighing in at 155 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a victory to his total of 29-22-0 (1 NC). The 39-year-old extends his reach 71". When it comes to grappling, King Green gets a takedown 1.31 times per 15 min while Jeremy Stephens takes his opponents to the canvas 1.11 times per 15 min. Regarding striking, Green connects on 6.38 strikes per minute and is landing 53% of the strikes that he attempts. On the other side of the cage you've got Jeremy Stephens, who tags the opposition on 40% of the strikes he has tried and connects on 3.15 per minute.

Another bout to watch is when Ozzy Diaz is set to square up against Ateba Gautier. Gautier has a mark of 10-1-0. The 24-year-old weighs in at 185 lbs and stands 6'4". The switch fighter has a wingspan of 81". Diaz comes in at 6'4" and weighs 185 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the cage with a record of 10-3-0. The 35-year-old has a wingspan of 79". Concerning grappling, Ateba Gautier is preventing 92% of the takedowns fighters have gone for and is finishing his takedown attempts on 75% of the times he tries. Diaz is finishing his takedown tries on 15% of the tries he takes and is able to defend against 50% of all takedown attempts. In the matter of striking, Gautier takes 2.93 strikes/min and he lands 4.44 strikes/min. Diaz, at the same time, is taking 7.23 strikes/min and is landing 6.44 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Joaquin Buckley (+130)

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Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley Pick, 05/09/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 117 Odds

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