Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki Pick, 09/12/2026 Predictions Noche UFC 4 Odds
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki
Noche UFC 4
Accor Arena in Paris, France
Saturday, September 12, 2026
Tommy McMillen will face off against Marwan Rahiki at Noche UFC 4 on Saturday, September 12, 2026. The moneyline has McMillen coming in at -171 while Rahiki is at +150.
Tommy "Gun" McMillen will be looking to add a win to his record of 11-0-0. The 28-year-old steps on the scale at 145 lbs and measures in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 74". Marwan "Freaky" Rahiki stands in at 5'8" and tips the scales at 145 lbs. The orthodox fighter walks into the cage holding a record of 9-0-0. The 24-year-old reaches 72". In terms of significant strikes, Tommy McMillen is landing 13.54 per min and Marwan Rahiki lands 7.75 significant strikes per min. McMillen is connecting on 50% of the significant strikes he tries and Rahiki connects on 52%. When it comes to defending in the cage, "Gun" absorbs 4.96 significant strikes per min while "Freaky" takes 5.90. McMillen also stops 59% of the significant strikes that are aimed in his direction while Rahiki is able to defend against 57% of the shots thrown his way.
| Noche UFC 4 | Tommy McMillen | Marwan Rahiki |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -171 | +150 |
| Record | 11-0-0 | 9-0-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 10:49 | 6:40 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'8" |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 145 lbs |
| Reach | 74" | 72" |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 13.54 | 7.75 |
| Striking Accuracy | 50% | 52% |
In the category of takedowns, Tommy McMillen is not as effective of a grappler as he takes his opponents to the mat 0.50 times per 3 rounds. McMillen is getting his opponent to the mat on 15% of his tries and is stopping 83% of takedowns his opponents have tried. Rahiki is finishing his takedown attempts on 15% of the takedowns he attempts and is defending 80% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, McMillen is the less likely of the two fighters to go for the finish by attempting 0.6 finishes per 3 rds while Rahiki tries 0.8 finishes per 15 minutes.
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In his previous fight, Tommy McMillen went up against Alberto Montes and wound up taking home the win by a punch to the head in round 3. Montes ended up landing 56 of 147 total strikes that he threw in that contest. McMillen walked away from this fight having landed 255 of 517 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Montes landed 56 of 147, which means his percentage was 38%. He landed 48 of 134 significant strikes directed at the head. Statistically, McMillen ended up landing 49% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 252 of 513. Looking at the significant strike accuracy, he connected on 185 of 429 pointed at the head. 100% of the significant strikes connected on by Montes and 92% of them connected on by McMillen were done at distance.
In the last bout for Marwan Rahiki, he fought Ollie Schmid and wound up taking home the victory by a punch to the head in round 1. Schmid connected on 100% of his significant strikes at distance and Rahiki connected on 86% of the significant strikes he attempted from distance. Rahiki landed 55% of his significant strikes attempted by connecting on 22 of 40. He ended up connecting on 14 of 25 significant strikes directed at the head. Schmid connected on 9 of 30 significant strikes in that battle. Out of all the significant strikes thrown, he ended up connecting on 0 of 15 aimed at the head. In terms of the total strikes thrown in this fight, Schmid ended up landing 9 of 30 and Rahiki ended up landing 22 of 40 total strikes.
Other fights on the card to watch
Another fight to keep an eye on is when Waldo Cortes Acosta meets Curtis Blaydes. Cortes Acosta will be looking to add a victory to his record of 17-3-0. The 34-year-old is fighting at 260 lbs and measures 6'4". The orthodox fighter stretches 78". Blaydes stands 6'4" and weighs 265 lbs. The orthodox fighter comes into this fight with a record of 19-6-0 (1 NC). The 35-year-old stretches 80". When it comes to grappling, Waldo Cortes Acosta takes his opponents to the canvas 0.40 times per 15 min and Curtis Blaydes takes his opponents to the canvas 5.12 times per 3 rounds. When it comes to striking, Cortes Acosta connects for an average of 5.34 strikes/min and connecting on 48% of his attempted strikes. On the other side we have Curtis Blaydes, who is connecting on 52% of the strikes he attempts and connects for an average of 4.18 per minute.
Another must see fight on the night is when Dan Ige is set to enter the Octagon with David Martinez. Martinez walks into the cage holding a record of 14-1-0. The 28-year-old tips the scales at 135 lbs and stands in at 5'5". The orthodox fighter extends his reach 67". Ige stands in at 5'7" and steps on the scale at 135 lbs. The orthodox fighter will be looking to add a win to his career total of 19-11-0. The 35-year-old extends his reach 71". Concerning grappling, David Martinez is stopping 80% of the takedowns fighters have tried and is finishing his takedown tries on 25% of his attempts. Ige is finishing his takedown tries on 26% of the tries he takes and is able to curb 56% of all takedown tries against him. In the category of striking, Martinez is taking 2.90 strikes per min and he is dealing 4.82 per min. Ige, moreover, takes 3.56 strikes per min and connects on 3.60 per min.
Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?
Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Tommy McMillen (-171)
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