Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan Pick, 05/16/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 117 Odds

by Josh Schonwald - 5/14/2026

Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan

UFC Vegas 117

Meta APEX in Las Vegas

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Tuco Tokkos will enter the Octagon against Ivan Erslan at UFC Vegas 117 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. The line has Tokkos at +140 while Erslan is at -160.

Tuco Tokkos walks into the cage with a mark of 11-5-0. The 35-year-old will fight at 205 lbs and measures 6'4". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 76". Ivan Erslan measures in at 6'2" and steps on the scale at 205 lbs. The orthodox fighter looks to add a win to his career record of 14-6-0 (1 NC). The 34-year-old reaches 72". In the category of significant strikes, Tuco Tokkos is landing 2.12 per min and Ivan Erslan is connecting on 2.55 significant strikes per min. Tokkos lands 40% of the significant strikes he throws while Erslan is landing 46%. Regarding defense, Tokkos takes 4.27 significant strikes per minute and Erslan allows 5.01. Tokkos also thwarts 46% of the significant strikes his opponents throw at him and Erslan deflects 53% of the shots thrown.

ufc picks Tuco Tokkos predictions best bet odds

UFC Vegas 117	Tuco Tokkos	Ivan Erslan
Opening Odds	+140	-160
Record	11-5-0	14-6-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time	8:01	11:06
Height	6'4"	6'2"
Weight	205 lbs	205 lbs
Reach	76"	72"
Strikes Landed Per Minute	2.12	2.55
Striking Accuracy	40%	46%

Concerning takedowns, Tuco Tokkos is averaging more takedowns in the cage as he takes his opponents down 4.21 times per 15 minutes. Tokkos is taking his opponents to the canvas on 47% of his tries and is stuffing 33% of all takedown tries against him. Erslan is getting his opponent to the mat on 20% of the takedowns he tries and is stuffing 61% of takedowns his opponents have attempted. Regarding going for the sub, Tokkos is the more skilled technician by attempting 0.5 finishes per 3 rounds while Erslan attempts 0.3 finishes per 15 minutes.

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In his last fight, Tuco Tokkos fought Junior Tafa and ended up getting the win by an arm triangle in round 2. Tafa landed 25 of 39 total strikes that he let go in that contest. Tokkos ended the night having landed 31 of 57 total strikes. When it comes to significant strikes, Tafa ended up landing 24 of 38, which means his percentage was 63%. He finished the fight landing 21 of 35 significant strikes aimed at the head. Statistically, Tokkos ended up landing 50% of the significant strikes he threw by landing 11 of 22. In terms of accuracy for the significant strikes, he landed 7 of 17 to the head. 25% of the significant strikes connected on by Tafa and 36% of them connected on by Tokkos were tallied at a distance.

In the last bout for Ivan Erslan, he battled Jimmy Crute and was on the losing end of this fight by rear naked choke in round 1. Crute ended up connecting on 75% of the significant strikes he took from distance and Erslan ended up connecting on 100% of his significant strikes at distance. Erslan landed 71% of the significant strikes he attempted by connecting on 10 of 14. He ended up connecting on 9 of 13 significant strikes aimed at the head. Crute connected on 12 of 16 significant strikes in that fight. Out of those significant strikes, he connected on 3 of 7 aimed at the head. In terms of the total strikes thrown in this fight, Crute was 12 of 16 and Erslan connected on 10 of 14 total strikes.

Other fights to watch

Another bout that you're not going to want to miss is when Cody Brundage enters the Octagon with Andre Petroski. Brundage walks into the Octagon with a mark of 11-9-1 (1 NC). The 31-year-old steps on the scale at 185 lbs and measures in at 6'0". The orthodox fighter has a reach of 72". Petroski measures in at 6'0" and is fighting at 185 lbs. The switch fighter has a career mark of 13-5-0. The 34-year-old extends his reach 73". In the grappling category, Cody Brundage scores a takedown 1.88 times per 15 minutes while Andre Petroski takes his opponents to the canvas 3.15 times per 3 rds. In terms of striking, Brundage is landing 2.26 strikes per minute and connecting on 48% of the strikes that he throws. The other fighter in this bout is Andre Petroski, who lands 49% of the strikes that he throws and lands an average of 2.81 per min.

If you're going to be watching the fights, don't miss when Luis Gurule is set to square up in the Octagon against Daniel Barez. Barez looks to add a win to his career record of 17-7-0. The 37-year-old steps on the scale at 125 lbs and measures in at 5'6". The orthodox fighter stretches 66". Gurule measures 5'5" and records a weight of 125 lbs. The orthodox fighter steps into the Octagon holding a mark of 10-3-0. The 32-year-old extends his reach 64". In the category of takedowns, Daniel Barez is able to deflect 80% of the takedowns his opponents try and is finishing his takedown tries on 28% of his attempts. Gurule is finishing his takedown tries on 14% of the tries he takes and defends against 58% of all takedown tries against him. In the matter of striking, Barez is taking 5.95 strikes/min and he is connecting on 3.65 strikes/minute. Gurule, notwithstanding, is absorbing 4.74 strikes/minute and connects on 4.47 per min.

Who will win tonight's UFC match against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Ivan Erslan (-160)

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Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan Pick, 05/16/2026 Predictions UFC Vegas 117 Odds

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