Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, 9/21/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces

Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025

Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, NV

TV: ABC

The Indiana Fever (24-20) are headed to Michelob ULTRA Arena on Sunday where they'll take on the Las Vegas Aces (30-14) in Game 1 of the WNBA Semifinals. Vegas opens as 8.5 point favorites while the total starts at 160.5.

The Indiana Fever notched a win by a score of 87-85 to close out the Atlanta Dream. Indiana ended the game having earned a 41.6% FG percentage (32 of 77) and buried 6 of 22 3-point attempts. From the charity stripe, the Fever made 17 of their 24 attempts for a rate of 70.8%. In regard to hauling in rebounds, they earned 37 with 5 of them being of the offensive variety. They also recorded 16 dimes in this contest as well as forcing the opposition into 13 turnovers and getting 5 steals. In the matter of the defense, Indiana allowed the other team to shoot 50.0% from the field on 37 of 74 shooting. Atlanta earned 5 assists and had 9 steals for this game. Additionally, Atlanta collected 27 rebounds (5 offensive, 22 defensive) and added 2 blocks. Atlanta finished the game shooting 45.5% at the charity stripe by making 5 of their 11 tries. They buried 6 of their 23 attempts from distance.

Kelsey Mitchell is one player who was a major contributor for this contest. She left the arena with 24 points on 7 out of 16 shooting. She was on the hardwood for 35 mins and also collected 2 rebounds. Mitchell finished the contest at 43.8% from the floor and also recorded 1 assist.

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Indiana steps onto the court with a win-loss record of 24-20 for the year. They average 84.9 pts per game (3rd in the WNBA) on 45.6% from the floor. The Fever are hitting 34.6% on shots beyond the perimeter (365 of 1,056) and 77.0% from the free throw line. As a unit, Indiana is collecting 33.4 boards per contest and has totaled 906 dimes so far this year, which is 7th in the league in terms of passing the ball. They are turning it over 12.8 times per game and as a squad are committing 18.6 fouls per contest. When they are on defense, the Fever are able to force 14.1 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 19.0 fouls. The Fever are giving up a field goal percentage of 44.9% (621 of 838) and they concede 32.7 rebounds per game as a group. They are ranked 4th in basketball in giving up assists with 852 conceded on the year. They are giving up 32.9% on three-point shots and they are 8th in the league in PPG from their opponents (81.5).

In their last game, the Las Vegas Aces took home the win by a final score of 74-73 when they played the Seattle Storm. The Aces were able to collect 23 defensive rebounds and 4 offensive boards for a total of 27 for the matchup. They turned the ball over 13 times, while recording 11 steals for the game. The Storm had 16 personal fouls for this game which got the Aces to the charity stripe for a total of 17 shots. They were able to make 15 of them for a percentage of 88.2%. In relation to 3-point attempts, Las Vegas buried 3 out of 12 attempts (25.0%). When all was said and done, the Aces went 28 for 61 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 45.9%. The Aces allowed the Storm to convert 26 out of 65 attempts from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 40.0% for this contest. They finished 38.9% from beyond the arc by connecting on 7 out of 18 and finished the game at 14 out of 18 from the charity stripe (77.8%). In relation to rebounds, Las Vegas allowed Seattle to pull down 33 overall (9 on the offensive side).

A'ja Wilson ended up being important for the Aces for this contest. She made 14 of 26 in this matchup for a field goal percentage of 53.8%, and had 5 rebounds. Wilson had 38 points in her 37 minutes of playing time and had 3 dimes in this matchup.

Las Vegas has a win-loss mark of 30-14 so far this year. Las Vegas has accounted for 3,680 pts so far this year (83.6 per game) and they pull in 33.5 rebounds per game. The Aces are committing 16.6 personal fouls per game and they connect on 82.4% from the free throw line. As an offense, the Aces are shooting 43.9% from the field, which ranks 8th in the league. They are dishing out assists 19.6 times per contest (9th in the league) and they are turning it over 11.9 times per game. The Aces on the defensive side of the court are 7th in basketball in points allowed per contest with 80.7. They allow 20.4 dimes and 35.0 rebounds per game, which ranks them 9th and 9th in basketball. The Las Vegas defense allows 31.6% on 3-point attempts (318 of 1,007) and opponents are knocking down 81.5% of their free throw attempts. They are forcing 12.5 TO's per game and allow teams to shoot 43.6% from the field (6th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Indiana (+8.5)

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