Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, 9/30/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces

Date: Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, NV

TV: ESPN2

Michelob ULTRA Arena is the venue where and the Las Vegas Aces (30-14) will take on the Indiana Fever (24-20) on Tuesday in Game 5 of the WNBA Semifinals. The series is tied 2-2. Vegas opens as 8.5 point favorites while the total is 159.5.

The Indiana Fever went home with a win by a final score of 90-83 in Game 4. Indiana finished having earned a 44.8% field goal percentage (30 out of 67) and made 4 of their 15 three-point attempts. From the free throw line, the Fever made 26 of their 34 attempts for a percentage of 76.5%. In relation to rebounding, they earned a total of 39 with 16 of them being of the offensive sort. They also recorded 14 assists in this game in addition to forcing the other team into 14 turnovers and getting 6 steals. In reference to defense, Indiana allowed the other team to shoot 49.3% from the field on 33 of 67 shooting. Las Vegas doled out 4 dimes and had 8 steals for the contest. In addition, Las Vegas totaled 26 boards (4 offensive, 22 defensive) and added 10 blocks. Las Vegas ended up going 72.7% at the charity stripe by converting 8 of their 11 shots. They also converted 9 of 23 attempts from distance.

Kelsey Mitchell is a player who was a major factor in the game. She ended up with 25 points on 9 out of 20 shooting. She was on the hardwood for 39 mins and totaled 3 rebounds. Mitchell finished the contest at 45.0% from the field and also totaled 4 assists.

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Indiana comes into this contest with a win-loss mark of 24-20 on the campaign. They are averaging 84.9 pts per game (3rd in the league) while shooting 45.6% from the floor. The Fever are shooting 34.6% on shots from 3-point land (365 of 1,056) and 77.0% from the free throw line. As a team, Indiana is snagging 33.4 rebounds per game and has tallied 906 assists on the year, which has them ranked 7th in the WNBA in terms of passing. They are turning it over 12.8 times per contest and as a squad are committing 18.6 personal fouls per game. Defensively, the Fever are able to force 14.1 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 19.0 fouls. They are ranked 4th in the league in giving up assists to the opposition with 852 surrendered this year. The Fever are giving up and opponent field goal percentage of 44.9% (621 of 838) and they relinquish 32.7 rebounds per contest as a basketball team. They concede 32.9% on 3-point shots and they rank 8th in the league in points per game allowed (81.5).

In Game 4, the Aces recorded 19 defensive rebounds and 3 offensive boards totaling 22 in this matchup. They also turned it over 15 times, while earning 9 steals in this game. The Fever earned 17 personal fouls in this contest which took the Aces to the free throw line for a total of 11 tries. They were able to convert 8 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 72.7%. Regarding three-point attempts, Las Vegas knocked down 9 out of 23 tries (39.1%). When this game wrapped up, the Aces shot 33 for 67 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 49.3%. The Aces permitted the Fever to convert 30 of their 67 attempts from the field which had them shooting 44.8% in this game. They shot 26.7% from distance by going 4 of 15 and ended up shooting 26 of 34 from the free throw line (76.5%). In regard to rebounds, Las Vegas permitted Indiana to get 34 overall (8 on the offensive glass).

A'ja Wilson ended up being a factor for the Aces in this contest. She converted 14 out of 24 in the matchup giving her a rate of 58.3%, and had 9 rebounds. Wilson accumulated 31 points in her 36 mins on the court and totaled 3 assists in this game.

Las Vegas has a win-loss mark of 30-14 for the campaign. Las Vegas has accounted for 3,680 points for the year (83.6 per contest) and they collect 33.5 boards per game. The Aces have committed 16.6 fouls per contest while shooting 82.4% from the free throw line. When it comes to offensive execution, the Aces are connecting on 43.9% from the floor, which has them ranked 8th in the league. They are dishing out assists 19.6 times per contest (9th in basketball) and they are turning it over 11.9 times per game. The Aces on the defensive end are ranked 7th in the league in points allowed per contest with 80.7. They are forcing their opponents into 12.5 turnovers per game and have let teams shoot 43.6% from the floor (6th in the WNBA). The Las Vegas defense gives up 31.6% on shots from beyond the arc (318 of 1,007) and opponents are knocking down 81.5% of their shots from the charity stripe. They give up 20.4 assists and 35.0 boards on a nightly basis, which has them ranked 9th and 9th in the league.

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Indiana (+8.5)

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