Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, 10/8/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury

Date: Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Location: PHX Arena in Phoenix, AZ

TV: ESPN

The Las Vegas Aces (30-14) are headed to PHX Arena on Wednesday where they'll take on the Phoenix Mercury (27-17) in Game 3 of the WNBA Finals. Vegas leads the series 2-0 and opens Game 3 as 4.5 underdogs. The total is 163.5.

The Las Vegas Aces walked away with a win by a score of 91-78 in Game 2. Las Vegas finished the contest having earned a 49.3% FG percentage (37 of 75) and knocked down 8 of their 23 shots from distance. From the charity stripe, the Aces made 9 of their 13 attempts for a rate of 69.2%. When talking about grabbing rebounds, they collected 33 with 8 of them being offensive. They also doled out 24 assists in the matchup while forcing the opposition into 12 turnovers and earning 9 steals. With respect to the defense, Las Vegas allowed their opponent to shoot 40.8% from the field on 29 out of 71 shooting. Phoenix doled out 6 assists and had 4 steals in the matchup. Furthermore, Phoenix collected 35 boards (6 offensive, 29 defensive) and added 4 rejections. Phoenix finished the contest at 83.3% at the free throw line by burying 15 of their 18 shots. They buried 5 of their 28 tries from long range.

Jackie Young is someone who played a role for this contest. She ended up finishing with 32 points on 12 of 20 shooting. She was on the court for 34 mins played and also snagged 8 rebounds. Young finished the contest at 60.0% from the floor and totaled 2 dimes.

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Las Vegas enters this matchup with a mark of 30-14 this season. The Aces are connecting on 35.1% on shots from distance (400 of 1,138) and 82.4% from the charity stripe. They currently have an average of 83.6 points per contest (6th in the WNBA) while hitting 43.9% from the field. They cough up possession 11.9 times per contest and as a unit are committing 16.6 fouls on a nightly basis. As a team, Las Vegas is pulling down 33.5 boards per game and is sitting with 861 dimes so far this season, which is 9th in the league in terms of passing. When they are on defense, the Aces are forcing 12.5 turnovers per contest while drawing 17.2 personal fouls. The Aces defensively are allowing a shooting percentage of 43.6% (551 of 758) and they relinquish 35.0 rebounds per game as a team. They rank 9th in the league in allowing assists to their opponents with 897 surrendered for the season. They are conceding 31.6% on shots from distance while they are 7th in the WNBA in PPG allowed (80.7).

In Game 2, the Mercury recorded 29 defensive rebounds and 6 offensive rebounds totaling 35 for this game. They gave up possession of the ball 12 times, while getting 4 steals in the game. The Aces were called for 12 personal fouls for this contest which got the Mercury to the free throw line for 18 shots. They were able to bury 15 of them for a percentage of 83.3%. When discussing shots from beyond the perimeter, Phoenix knocked down 5 out of 28 tries (17.9%). Overall, the Mercury went 29 out of 71 from the floor which had them sitting at 40.8%. The Mercury allowed the Aces to make 37 out of 75 attempts from the field which left them shooting 49.3% for the game. They finished shooting 34.8% from 3-point land by going 8 out of 23 and walked away from this one shooting 9 of 13 at the free throw line (69.2%). When discussing cleaning up the glass, Phoenix allowed Las Vegas to get 33 in total (8 on the offensive glass).

Kahleah Copper ended up being a major contributor for the Mercury in the matchup. She made 9 out of 18 for the game for a field goal percentage of 50.0%, and accumulated 3 rebounds. Copper tallied 23 points in her 31 mins on the court, but left the arena with no assists.

Phoenix has a win-loss mark of 27-17 so far this season. Phoenix has scored 3,643 pts on the year (82.8 per contest) and they snag 34.7 rebounds per game. The Mercury commit 17.8 personal fouls per contest while shooting 78.4% from the free throw line. When it comes to executing on offense, the Mercury are hitting on 43.3% from the floor, which is ranked 9th in basketball. Their rate of earning assists is at 21.0 times per contest (5th in the league) and they are turning it over 12.5 times per contest. The Mercury on the defensive end are ranked 5th in basketball in points allowed per game with 80.1. The Phoenix defense concedes 32.1% on shots from distance (347 of 1,082) and their opponents are connecting on 80.4% of their free throw shots. They have conceded 19.7 dimes and 35.3 rebounds on a nightly basis, which has them ranked 6th and 10th in the league. They have forced 13.8 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 42.7% from the floor (4th in the league).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Las Vegas (+4.5)

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