Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, 9/26/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury

Date: Friday, September 26, 2025

Location: PHX Arena in Phoenix, AZ

TV: ESPN2

The Minnesota Lynx (34-10) head to PHX Arena on Friday where they'll take on the Phoenix Mercury (27-17) in Game 3 of the WNBA Semifinals. The series is tied 1-1. Minnesota opens as 4.5 point favorites while the total is 158.5.

The Minnesota Lynx took a loss by a final of 89-83 in Game 2. Minnesota walked away from the game having earned a 45.3% field goal percentage (34 out of 75) and buried 7 of their 28 shots from distance. When they shot from the free throw line, the Lynx made 8 of 9 attempts for a rate of 88.9%. Regarding hauling in rebounds, they earned 42 with 8 of them being offensive. They also recorded 21 dimes in the matchup while forcing the other team into 10 turnovers and having 7 steals. Regarding defense, Minnesota let their opponent shoot 41.8% from the field on 33 of 79 shooting. Phoenix dished out 7 dimes and had 6 steals in this contest. Furthermore, Phoenix pulled down 35 rebounds (7 offensive, 28 defensive), but finished the game with no rejections. Phoenix went 76.9% from the free throw line by burying 10 of 13 tries. They made 13 of their 32 shots from long range.

Napheesa Collier is a player who was a major factor in the matchup. She notched 24 points on 10 of 22 shooting. She was on the hardwood for 38 minutes and grabbed 6 boards. Collier finished the game shooting 45.5% from the floor and recorded 1 assist.

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Minnesota enters this contest with a mark of 34-10 on the season. They lose possession by turning the ball over 12.1 times per contest and as a squad they are committing 16.0 fouls per contest. As a unit, Minnesota is pulling in 34.2 boards per contest and is sitting with 1,026 assists on the campaign, which ranks 1st in basketball in terms of passing the rock. The Lynx are hitting 37.8% from downtown (422 of 1,116) and 76.0% from the charity stripe. They currently have an average of 86.1 points per outing (1st in the league) while shooting 47.2% from the field. On the defensive end, the Lynx are forcing 14.0 turnovers per contest and they draw 16.4 fouls. They give up 33.1% from 3-point land and they are 2nd in the WNBA in points per game allowed (76.7). The Lynx defense is giving up a FG percentage of 42.3% (617 of 720) and they surrender 33.3 boards per contest as a group. They rank 1st in basketball in allowing assists to the opposition with 828 surrendered for the year.

In Game 2, the Mercury snagged 28 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive boards for a total of 37 in this game. They also turned it over 14 times, while earning 10 steals in this contest. The Lynx earned 13 fouls for the contest which took the Mercury to the charity stripe for a total of 13 shots. They were able to make 10 of the free throw tries for a rate of 76.9%. When discussing three-point shots, Phoenix buried 13 of their 32 attempts (40.6%). When all was said and done, the Mercury finished shooting 33 for 79 from the field which gave them a percentage of 41.8%. The Mercury allowed the Lynx to convert 34 of 75 tries from the field which gave them a percentage of 45.3% for the game. They went 25.0% from behind the 3-point line by going 7 of 28 and ended up going 8 out of 9 from the free throw line (88.9%). When it comes to how they rebounded, Phoenix allowed Minnesota to collect 37 in all (7 on the offensive glass).

Satou Sabally was important for the Mercury in this game. She made 9 of 22 for the game for a field goal rate of 40.9%, and accumulated 9 rebounds. Sabally had 24 points in her 38 mins of playing time and totaled 1 assist for the matchup.

Phoenix has a mark of 27-17 this year. As an offense, the Mercury are hitting on 43.3% from the field, which has them ranked 9th in the WNBA. Phoenix has totaled 3,643 pts on the season (82.8 per contest) and they pull in 34.7 boards per contest. They are getting an assist 21.0 times per contest (5th in the league) and they are turning it over 12.5 times per contest. The Mercury have committed 17.8 fouls per contest while shooting 78.4% from the free throw line. The Mercury on the defensive end are ranked 5th in basketball in PPG given up with 80.1. They have surrendered 19.7 assists and 35.3 boards on a nightly basis, which is ranked 6th and 10th in the league. The Phoenix defense allows 32.1% on three-point shots (347 of 1,082) and their opposition knocks down 80.4% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have forced 13.8 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 42.7% from the field (4th in basketball).

So what is Tonights Parlay prediction?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Phoenix (+4.5)

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