Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, 9/28/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury

Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025

Location: PHX Arena in Phoenix, AZ

TV: ESPN

The Phoenix Mercury (27-17) play the Minnesota Lynx (34-10) at PHX Arena on Sunday in Game 4 of the WNBA Semifinals. Phoenix leads the series 2-1 and opens as 4.5 point favorites. The total is 156.5.

The Minnesota Lynx walked away from Game 3 with a loss by a score of 84-76. Minnesota ended having earned a 42.3% FG percentage (30 of 71) and knocked down 6 of 24 three-point attempts. At the charity stripe, the Lynx buried 10 of their 11 shots for a percentage of 90.9%. When it comes to rebounding, they collected a total of 37 with 7 of them being of the offensive variety. They also distributed 22 dimes in this matchup while forcing the opposition into 14 turnovers and having 9 steals. Concerning the defense, Minnesota allowed 46.2% from the field on 30 of 65 shooting. Phoenix earned 9 assists and had 10 steals in this contest. Furthermore, Phoenix collected 37 boards (9 offensive, 28 defensive) and added 1 block. Phoenix ended up going 81.8% when shooting free throws by making 18 of their 22 shots. They buried 6 out of their 18 tries from long range.

Natisha Hiedeman is a player who was a contributor in this game. She ended up finishing with 19 points on 7 of 12 shooting. She was on the hardwood for 23 minutes and also grabbed 2 boards. Hiedeman finished the game shooting 58.3% from the field and also recorded 3 dimes.

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Minnesota comes into this one with a mark of 34-10 for the year. They are giving up possession 12.1 times per game and as a team are committing 16.0 personal fouls per contest. As a team, Minnesota is pulling in 34.2 rebounds per game and has racked up 1,026 dimes for the campaign, which is 1st in the WNBA in terms of passing the ball. The Lynx are connecting on 37.8% on three-point attempts (422 of 1,116) and 76.0% from the free throw line. They are averaging 86.1 points per contest (1st in basketball) while hitting 47.2% from the floor. When they are on defense, the Lynx are forcing their opponents into 14.0 turnovers per contest and they draw 16.4 fouls. They are conceding 33.1% on shots from distance while they are 2nd in the league in points per game allowed (76.7). The Lynx are giving up a shooting percentage of 42.3% (617 of 720) and they concede 33.3 boards per game as a group. They are 1st in the WNBA in giving up assists with 828 conceded for the campaign.

In Game 3, the Mercury were able to snag 25 defensive boards and 12 offensive boards for a total of 37 in this matchup. They turned it over 15 times, while earning 9 steals for the contest. The Lynx had 14 fouls in the matchup which got the Mercury to the free throw line for 22 tries. They were able to make 18 of the free throws for a rate of 81.8%. In relation to shots from 3-point land, Phoenix converted 6 out of their 18 attempts (33.3%). Overall, the Mercury shot 30 for 65 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 46.2%. The Mercury allowed the Lynx to knock down 30 out of their 71 tries from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 42.3% in the matchup. They shot 25.0% from distance by going 6 of 24 and ended up shooting 10 out of 11 at the free throw line (90.9%). In relation to attacking the glass, Phoenix permitted Minnesota to snag 29 in all (10 offensive).

Satou Sabally ended up being important for the Mercury in the matchup. She made 5 of 11 for this contest for a field goal rate of 45.5%, and accounted for 4 rebounds. Sabally scored 23 points in her 30 minutes on the court, but wasn't able to tally an assist.

Phoenix has a mark of 27-17 for the season. As an offense, the Mercury are shooting 43.3% from the floor, which ranks them 9th in the WNBA. Phoenix has tallied 3,643 points so far this year (82.8 per contest) and they collect 34.7 rebounds per contest. They are dishing out assists 21.0 times per contest (5th in the league) and they cough up possession 12.5 times per contest. The Mercury are committing 17.8 fouls per game and they go 78.4% from the charity stripe. The Mercury defensively are ranked 5th in basketball in points given up per game with 80.1. They have allowed 19.7 dimes and 35.3 boards per game, which ranks 6th and 10th in the league. The Phoenix defense gives up 32.1% on shots from beyond the arc (347 of 1,082) and opponents are converting on 80.4% of their shots from the free throw line. They are forcing their opponents into 13.8 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 42.7% from the field (4th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Phoenix (-4.5)

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