New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, 9/14/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury

Date: Sunday, September 14, 2025

Location: PHX Arena in Phoenix, AZ

TV: ESPN

The Phoenix Mercury (27-17) host the New York Liberty (27-17) at PHX Arena on Sunday in Game 1 of their first round series. Phoenix opens as 1.5 point underdogs. The total is set at 164.5.

The New York Liberty played the Chicago Sky and notched a win by a score of 91-86 in their last game. New York walked away from the game having earned a 49.3% FG percentage (34 out of 69) and converted 8 of their 23 3-point attempts. From the free throw line, the Liberty converted 15 of their 17 attempts for a percentage of 88.2%. When talking about getting rebounds, they earned a total of 35 with 10 of them being offensive. They also distributed 26 assists in this game as well as forcing the other team into 11 turnovers and getting 8 steals. Regarding defense, New York let their opponent shoot 50.0% from the field on 32 out of 64 shooting. Chicago recorded 3 dimes and had 5 steals for the contest. In addition, Chicago totaled 26 boards (3 offensive, 23 defensive) and had 5 rejections. Chicago walked away from this one shooting 83.3% at the charity stripe by burying 10 of their 12 tries. They made 12 of 28 shots from beyond the perimeter.

Breanna Stewart is someone who was a factor in this matchup. She totaled 24 points on 9 of 14 shooting. She played for 24 minutes and also grabbed 6 rebounds. Stewart finished the game shooting 64.3% from the floor and also totaled 3 dimes.

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New York enters this game with a win-loss record of 27-17 on the season. The Liberty are shooting 35.5% on three-point attempts (419 of 1,180) and 83.7% from the free throw line. They are averaging 84.4 pts per contest (4th in basketball) while hitting 45.3% from the field. They are losing possession via turnover 12.9 times per contest and as a basketball team they are committing 16.2 personal fouls per contest. As a team, New York is collecting 33.7 rebounds per game and is sitting with 960 assists for the campaign, which is 2nd in the WNBA in terms of passing the ball. On the defensive end of the court, the Liberty are able to force 12.6 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 16.8 fouls. They currently rank 7th in the WNBA in giving up assists with 873 surrendered for the campaign. The Liberty are allowing an opponent shooting percentage of 42.4% (553 of 740) and they concede 35.3 rebounds per game as a basketball team. They concede 31.5% on 3-pointers and they rank 6th in basketball in opponents PPG (80.3).

When they last played, the Phoenix Mercury went home defeated by a final of 97-76 when they played the Dallas Wings. The Mercury collected 22 defensive boards and 5 offensive boards for a total of 27 for this game. They turned it over 18 times, while recording 7 steals in this game. The Wings were called for 13 fouls in this game which took the Mercury to the charity stripe for 17 tries. They were able to knock down 12 of those for a percentage of 70.6%. When discussing shots from 3-point land, Phoenix knocked down 12 of their 28 tries (42.9%). When this game wrapped up, the Mercury went 26 for 58 from the field which had them shooting 44.8%. The Mercury allowed the Wings to convert 41 out of their 84 tries from the field which gave them a percentage of 48.8% for this game. They finished 28.6% from distance by shooting 8 of 28 and ended up going 7 of 11 at the free throw line (63.6%). Regarding rebounding, Phoenix permitted Dallas to pull down 42 in total (17 on the offensive side).

Satou Sabally was important for the Mercury in this matchup. She buried 5 of 9 for the matchup giving her a field goal percentage of 55.6%, and totaled 5 rebounds. Sabally scored 14 points in her 20 mins on the court and had 5 assists in the matchup.

Phoenix has a mark of 27-17 on the year. The Mercury are responsible for committing 17.8 fouls per game and they connect on 78.4% from the free throw line. They are dishing out assists 21.0 times per game (5th in the league) and they turn it over 12.5 times per contest. Phoenix has accounted for 3,643 points for the season (82.8 per game) and they grab 34.7 rebounds per game. On the offensive side of the ball, the Mercury are shooting 43.3% from the floor, which is 9th in the WNBA. The Mercury on defense are ranked 5th in the league in points per game surrendered with 80.1. They have relinquished 19.7 dimes and 35.3 boards per game, which is ranked 6th and 10th in the WNBA. The Phoenix defense allows 32.1% on three-point shots (347 of 1,082) and their opponents are converting on 80.4% of their shots from the free throw line. They are able to force 13.8 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 42.7% from the field (4th in the WNBA).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take New York (-1.5)

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