New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, 9/19/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury

Date: Friday, September 19, 2025

Location: PHX Arena in Phoenix, AZ

TV: ESPN2

The New York Liberty (27-17) go to PHX Arena on Friday where they'll meet the Phoenix Mercury (27-17) in Game 3 of their series. The series is tied 1-1. Phoenix opens this matchup as 2.5 point favorites while the total is 155.5.

The New York Liberty walked away from Game 1 with a loss by a score of 86-60. New York wrapped up the game having earned a 30.2% FG percentage (19 of 63) and knocked down 6 out of their 26 shots from distance. At the free throw line, the Liberty knocked down 16 of 25 tries for a percentage of 64.0%. When talking about hauling in boards, they collected a total of 36 with 9 of them being on the offensive end. They also recorded 14 assists in this matchup while creating 8 turnovers and having 5 steals. When it comes to defending, New York allowed the other team to go 47.9% from the floor on 34 out of 71 shooting. Phoenix earned 8 dimes and had 10 steals in this game. Moreover, Phoenix collected 39 rebounds (8 offensive, 31 defensive) and earned 2 blocks. Phoenix finished the contest at 91.7% from the free throw line by knocking down 11 of 12 tries. They also made 7 of 24 attempts from beyond the perimeter.

Emma Meesseman is one player who was a major contributor for this game. She ended up finishing with 11 points on 4 out of 9 shooting. She was on the court for 18 minutes and snagged 6 boards. Meesseman shot 44.4% from the field and earned 3 dimes.

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New York enters this contest with a win-loss record of 27-17 on the season. They have an average of 84.4 pts per contest (4th in the league) while shooting 45.3% from the field. The Liberty are hitting 35.5% on three-point shots (419 of 1,180) and 83.7% from the free throw line. As a unit, New York is collecting 33.7 boards per contest and has totaled 960 assists for the season, which is 2nd in the WNBA in terms of passing. They lose possession by turning the ball over 12.9 times per contest and as a unit are committing 16.2 fouls per game. On defense, the Liberty are able to force 12.6 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 16.8 personal fouls. The Liberty defensively are allowing and opponent field goal percentage of 42.4% (553 of 740) and they relinquish 35.3 rebounds per game as a basketball team. They are ranked 7th in basketball in giving up assists to their opponents with 873 surrendered so far this year. They relinquish 31.5% from beyond the arc and they are ranked 6th in basketball in opponents PPG (80.3).

In Game 2, the Mercury were able to pull down 31 defensive boards and 8 offensive rebounds for a total of 39 for this game. They coughed it up 8 times, while recording 10 steals in this game. The Liberty were called for 14 fouls for this game which got the Mercury to the free throw line for 12 attempts. They were able to make 11 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 91.7%. In the matter of shots from beyond the arc, Phoenix converted 7 out of 24 attempts (29.2%). When the final whistle was blown, the Mercury went 34 out of 71 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 47.9%. The Mercury allowed the Liberty to convert 19 of their 63 attempts from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 30.2% in this contest. They finished 23.1% from downtown by going 6 out of 26 and finished the game at 16 out of 25 at the free throw line (64.0%). Concerning how they cleaned up the glass, Phoenix permitted New York to pull down 36 in all (9 on the offensive side).

Satou Sabally ended up having an impact for the Mercury in the game. She converted 5 out of 11 in this matchup giving her a field goal percentage of 45.5%, and accumulated 7 rebounds. Sabally recorded 15 points in her 30 minutes of playing time and accumulated 4 assists for the matchup.

Phoenix has a win-loss record of 27-17 this season. Phoenix has accounted for 3,643 points on the season (82.8 per game) and they collect 34.7 boards per contest. The Mercury commit 17.8 fouls per contest and they hit 78.4% from the free throw line. On the offensive side of the ball, the Mercury are shooting 43.3% from the field, which is ranked 9th in basketball. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 21.0 times per contest (5th in the WNBA) and they are turning it over 12.5 times per game. The Mercury defensively are ranked 5th in the league in PPG allowed with 80.1. They have relinquished 19.7 dimes and 35.3 boards per contest, which is ranked 6th and 10th in the league. The Phoenix defense surrenders 32.1% on 3-point shots (347 of 1,082) and their opposition makes 80.4% of their foul shots. They are forcing 13.8 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 42.7% from the floor (4th in the league).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take New York (+2.5)

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