Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, 10/5/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces

Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025

Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, NV

TV: ABC

The Las Vegas Aces (30-14) play the Phoenix Mercury (27-17) at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Sunday in Game 2 of the WNBA Finals. Vegas opens as 2.5 point favorites while the total is 164.5

The Phoenix Mercury ended up losing by a score of 89-86 in Game 1. Phoenix finished the game having earned a 47.0% field goal percentage (31 out of 66) and knocked down 14 of 36 shots from beyond the arc. At the free throw line, the Mercury buried 10 of 13 attempts for a percentage of 76.9%. Concerning pulling down rebounds, they collected 38 with 7 of them being of the offensive variety. They also dished out 20 assists for the game as well as forcing the other team into 6 turnovers and earning 2 steals. When talking about defense, Phoenix allowed their opponent to shoot 45.8% from the floor on 33 out of 72 shooting. Las Vegas recorded 4 assists and had 8 steals in this contest. Moreover, Las Vegas snagged 34 boards (4 offensive, 30 defensive) and added 6 rejections. Las Vegas went 70.0% from the charity stripe by converting 14 of 20 shots. They also knocked down 9 of 27 tries from beyond the arc.

Kahleah Copper is a player who came through for this game. She ended up walking away with 21 points on 7 out of 12 shooting. She played for 36 mins played and also pulled down 4 rebounds. Copper finished 58.3% from the floor and distributed 1 assist.

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Phoenix steps onto the court with a mark of 27-17 for the campaign. They currently have an average of 82.8 pts per game (7th in the league) while connecting on 43.3% from the floor. The Mercury are shooting 34.0% on shots beyond the perimeter (414 of 1,217) and 78.4% from the free throw line. As a team, Phoenix is pulling down 34.7 rebounds per contest and has racked up 922 dimes so far this season, which has them ranked 5th in basketball in terms of passing. They cough up possession 12.5 times per game and as a group they are committing 17.8 fouls on a nightly basis. On defense, the Mercury are forcing 13.8 turnovers per game while drawing 16.4 personal fouls. They are conceding 32.1% on shots from beyond the arc and they are ranked 5th in the league in points per game allowed (80.1). The Mercury defensively are allowing a field goal percentage of 42.7% (609 of 723) and they concede 35.3 rebounds per contest as a unit. They rank 6th in the WNBA in giving up assists to their opponents with 868 relinquished so far this year.

In Game 1, the Aces earned 15 defensive boards and 6 offensive rebounds for a total of 21 for this contest. They turned it over 7 times, while getting 9 steals for the contest. The Mercury were called for 25 personal fouls for the contest which got the Aces to the charity stripe for a total of 20 shots. They were able to knock down 14 of them for a percentage of 70.0%. When it comes to shots from 3-point land, Las Vegas converted 9 of their 27 tries (33.3%). When this game wrapped up, the Aces finished the game shooting 33 out of 72 from the floor which gave them a percentage of 45.8%. The Aces permitted the Mercury to make 31 of their 66 attempts from the floor which gave them a rate of 47.0% for this game. They went 38.9% from distance by going 14 out of 36 and ended up going 10 of 13 from the free throw line (76.9%). Concerning how they cleaned up the glass, Las Vegas permitted Phoenix to collect 40 overall (12 offensive).

Dana Evans ended up being a major contributor for the Aces for this contest. She made 8 out of 13 for the contest for a field goal percentage of 61.5%, and accounted for 2 rebounds. Evans earned 21 points in her 26 mins of playing time and accounted for 3 assists for the game.

Las Vegas has a record of 30-14 for the season. Las Vegas has accounted for 3,680 pts this season (83.6 per contest) and they collect 33.5 boards per contest. The Aces are committing 16.6 fouls per contest and they hit 82.4% from the free throw line. As an offense, the Aces are connecting on 43.9% from the field, which ranks them 8th in the WNBA. They are getting an assist 19.6 times per contest (9th in basketball) and they are giving up possession 11.9 times per contest. The Aces are ranked 7th in the league in PPG surrendered with 80.7. They give up 20.4 assists and 35.0 rebounds on a nightly basis, which is ranked 9th and 9th in the WNBA. The Las Vegas defense surrenders 31.6% on shots from behind the 3-point line (318 of 1,007) and their opponents are connecting on 81.5% of their foul shots. They are forcing 12.5 turnovers on a nightly basis and allow teams to shoot 43.6% from the field (6th in the league).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Las Vegas (-2.5)

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