Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction, 9/21/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx

Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025

Location: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

TV: ESPN

The Phoenix Mercury (27-17) travel to Target Center on Sunday where they'll meet the Minnesota Lynx (34-10) in Game 1 of the WNBA Semifinals. Minnesota opens as 6.5 point favorites and the total is set at 158.5.

The Phoenix Mercury played the New York Liberty and took home the win by a score of 79-73 in their last contest to secure their spot in the semis. Phoenix ended with a 36.6% field goal percentage (26 of 71) and converted 9 of their 24 shots from 3-point land. From the free throw line, the Mercury made 18 of 22 attempts for a rate of 81.8%. When talking about pulling down boards, they earned 39 with 8 of them being offensive. They also doled out 22 assists in this contest as well as forcing 15 turnovers and having 10 steals. When it comes to the defense, Phoenix allowed 33.8% from the field on 23 out of 68 shooting. New York dished out 9 dimes and had 5 steals for the contest. Additionally, New York had 36 rebounds (9 offensive, 27 defensive) and added 4 blocks. New York ended up going 76.9% from the charity stripe by knocking down 20 of 26 tries. They buried 7 out of their 32 shots from long range.

Satou Sabally is someone who was a major factor in this game. She finished with 23 points on 6 of 14 shooting. She was on the court for 34 minutes played and totaled 12 rebounds. Sabally ended up going 42.9% from the floor and earned 3 assists.

Get all of our WNBA Betting Picks

W**Articles-WNBA**W

Phoenix comes into this game with a mark of 27-17 so far this season. The Mercury are connecting on 34.0% on 3-point shots (414 of 1,217) and 78.4% from the charity stripe. They are averaging 82.8 pts per contest (7th in the WNBA) while shooting 43.3% from the field. They turn it over 12.5 times per contest and as a team are committing 17.8 personal fouls on a nightly basis. As a team, Phoenix is snagging 34.7 boards per game and has accounted for 922 dimes so far this season, which is 5th in the league in terms of passing. On the defensive end of the court, the Mercury are forcing 13.8 turnovers per game while drawing 16.4 personal fouls. They are 6th in the league in giving up assists to the opposition with 868 conceded on the season. The Mercury defensively are giving up a shooting percentage of 42.7% (609 of 723) and they concede 35.3 rebounds per game as a unit. They are giving up 32.1% on shots from beyond the arc and they rank 5th in the WNBA in PPG allowed (80.1).

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the Minnesota Lynx got the victory with a final of 75-74 against the Golden State Valkyries to wrap up their first round series. The Lynx collected 22 defensive boards and 7 offensive boards for a total of 29 in this contest. They gave up possession of the ball 12 times, while recording 6 steals for the contest. The Valkyries committed 14 personal fouls in this matchup which took the Lynx to the charity stripe for a total of 10 tries. They were able to make 5 of them for a percentage of 50.0%. Concerning three-point shots, Minnesota converted 8 of 28 tries (28.6%). Overall, the Lynx finished the game shooting 31 out of 67 from the field which gave them a percentage of 46.3%. The Lynx permitted the Valkyries to convert 28 out of their 64 attempts from the field which had them shooting 43.8% in this matchup. They finished 50.0% from beyond the perimeter by shooting 11 of 22 and finished the game at 7 out of 9 at the free throw line (77.8%). When talking about how they cleaned up the glass, Minnesota allowed Golden State to get 28 in total (6 on the offensive glass).

Napheesa Collier pitched in for the Lynx in this game. She made 10 of 16 in this contest giving her a rate of 62.5%, and accumulated 7 rebounds. Collier earned 24 points in her 39 minutes on the court and had 4 dimes in the game.

Minnesota has a win-loss record of 34-10 for the year. On the offensive side of the ball, the Lynx are connecting on 47.2% from the field, which has them ranked 1st in the league. Minnesota has earned 3,787 pts on the year (86.1 per game) and they collect 34.2 boards per contest. They are getting an assist 23.3 times per game (1st in the WNBA) and they cough up possession 12.1 times per game. The Lynx have committed 16.0 personal fouls per game and they connect on 76.0% from the charity stripe. The Lynx are ranked 2nd in basketball in PPG allowed with 76.7. They allow 18.8 assists and 33.3 boards on a nightly basis, which has them ranked 1st and 6th in the league. The Minnesota defense surrenders 33.1% on shots from beyond the perimeter (345 of 1,042) and their opponents are making 77.5% of their shots from the free throw line. They are forcing their opponents into 14.0 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 42.3% from the field (2nd in the WNBA).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Minnesota (-6.5)

Get $60 worth of FREE premium member picks. No Obligation. No Salesman. No Credit Card. Fast Sign up with Instant Access Click Here