Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction, 9/23/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx

Date: Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Location: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

TV: ESPN

The Phoenix Mercury (27-17) are headed to Target Center on Tuesday where they'll take on the Minnesota Lynx (34-10) in Game 2 of the WNBA Semifinals. Minnesota opens as 7.5 point favorites and the total is set at 158.5.

The Phoenix Mercury walked away from Game 1 with a loss by a score of 82-69. Phoenix wrapped up the contest having earned a 41.3% field goal percentage (31 out of 75) and buried 3 out of their 23 shots from distance. At the charity stripe, the Mercury converted 4 of their 4 attempts for a rate of 100.0%. When discussing grabbing rebounds, they compiled 35 with 7 of them being of the offensive variety. They also distributed 19 dimes in the matchup in addition to forcing 12 turnovers and getting 6 steals. In the matter of the defense, Phoenix allowed 44.2% from the field on 34 out of 77 shooting. Minnesota doled out 8 dimes and had 7 steals in this contest. In addition, Minnesota collected 42 rebounds (8 offensive, 34 defensive) and added 2 blocks. Minnesota finished shooting 83.3% at the charity stripe by knocking down 5 of 6 attempts. They made 9 of 29 tries from distance.

Kahleah Copper is a player who came through for this game. She scored 22 points on 10 of 23 shooting. She saw the court for 37 minutes and also snagged 2 boards. Copper finished 43.5% from the field and also totaled 1 assist.

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Phoenix comes into this matchup with a mark of 27-17 on the year. They currently have an average of 82.8 pts per game (7th in basketball) while shooting 43.3% from the floor. The Mercury are connecting on 34.0% from downtown (414 of 1,217) and 78.4% from the free throw line. As a unit, Phoenix is pulling in 34.7 rebounds per contest and is sitting with 922 dimes so far this year, which is 5th in the WNBA in terms of passing the rock. They turn it over 12.5 times per contest and as a team they are committing 17.8 fouls per contest. Defensively, the Mercury are able to force 13.8 turnovers on a nightly basis while drawing 16.4 fouls. They are conceding 32.1% on shots from distance and they are ranked 5th in the league in PPG allowed (80.1). The Mercury are giving up and opponent field goal percentage of 42.7% (609 of 723) and they surrender 35.3 boards per game as a unit. They are currently ranked 6th in basketball in allowing assists to their opponents with 868 conceded on the campaign.

In Game 1, the Lynx earned 22 defensive boards and 7 offensive rebounds for a total of 29 in the game. They also coughed up the ball 12 times, while recording 6 steals for the contest. The Mercury earned 14 fouls for this game which got the Lynx to the charity stripe for a total of 6 attempts. They were able to convert 5 of the free throw attempts for a percentage of 83.3%. When discussing 3-point attempts, Minnesota converted 9 out of their 29 attempts (31.0%). When the final whistle blew, the Lynx walked away from this one shooting 34 for 77 from the floor which had them sitting at 44.2%. The Lynx allowed the Mercury to make 31 out of their 75 attempts from the field which gave them a percentage of 41.3% in the game. They finished 13.0% from three-point range by connecting on 3 of 23 and ended up going 4 out of 4 at the charity stripe (100.0%). In regard to how they attacked the glass, Minnesota permitted Phoenix to pull down 28 in total (6 on the offensive glass).

Courtney Williams was important for the Lynx for this game. She converted 11 of 19 in the matchup for a rate of 57.9%, and had 8 rebounds. Williams accumulated 23 points in her 33 minutes on the hardwood and added 7 assists for this contest.

Minnesota has a mark of 34-10 for the campaign. On the offensive side of the ball, the Lynx are shooting 47.2% from the floor, which has them ranked 1st in basketball. Minnesota has earned 3,787 points for the campaign (86.1 per game) and they pull in 34.2 boards per game. They are assisting teammates 23.3 times per contest (1st in the WNBA) and they are losing possession via turnover 12.1 times per game. The Lynx are committing 16.0 fouls per contest and they shoot 76.0% from the free throw line. The Lynx are ranked 2nd in the league in PPG surrendered with 76.7. They are forcing their opponents into 14.0 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 42.3% from the floor (2nd in the WNBA). The Minnesota defense surrenders 33.1% on 3-point attempts (345 of 1,042) and opponents are making 77.5% of their shots from the free throw line. They give up 18.8 assists and 33.3 total boards per game, which is ranked 1st and 6th in the league.

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Phoenix (+7.5)

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