Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Prediction, 9/17/2025 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty

Date: Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Location: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY

TV: ESPN

The New York Liberty (27-17) host the Phoenix Mercury (27-17) at Barclays Center on Wednesday in Game 2 of their series. New York leads the series 1-0 and opens as 2.5 point favorites. The total is set at 159.5.

The Phoenix Mercury took a loss by a final of 76-69 in Game 1. Phoenix finished the game with a 32.5% FG percentage (25 of 77) and buried 6 out of their 26 3-point attempts. From the free throw line, the Mercury made 13 of their 16 shots for a rate of 81.3%. When talking about pulling down boards, they compiled 31 with 5 of them being of the offensive sort. They also distributed 16 assists in this game while forcing the other team into 20 turnovers and having 12 steals. Regarding the defense, Phoenix let their opponent shoot 41.7% from the floor on 30 of 72 shooting. New York recorded 10 dimes and had 6 steals in the matchup. Additionally, New York pulled down 48 rebounds (10 offensive, 38 defensive) and earned 6 blocked shots. New York finished the game shooting 66.7% at the charity stripe by converting 6 of their 9 attempts. They also made 10 of their 33 tries from downtown.

Kahleah Copper is a player who came through in this matchup. She ended up with 15 points on 5 out of 13 shooting. She played for 36 mins and also collected 2 boards. Copper went 38.5% from the floor and dished out 1 assist.

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Phoenix comes into this matchup with a win-loss record of 27-17 this year. The Mercury are shooting 34.0% on three-point shots (414 of 1,217) and 78.4% from the free throw line. They are averaging 82.8 pts per game (7th in the league) while hitting 43.3% from the field. They turn it over 12.5 times per contest and as a basketball team are committing 17.8 fouls per game. As a team, Phoenix is collecting 34.7 rebounds per game and has totaled 922 assists so far this season, which has them ranked 5th in the league in terms of passing. When they are on the defensive end, the Mercury have forced 13.8 turnovers per contest while drawing 16.4 fouls. They are giving up 32.1% on shots from beyond the perimeter and they are 5th in the league in points per game allowed (80.1). The Mercury defense is giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 42.7% (609 of 723) and they relinquish 35.3 boards per game as a basketball team. They are ranked 6th in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 868 conceded on the campaign.

In Game 1, the Liberty snagged 38 defensive rebounds and 10 offensive boards for a total of 48 for the matchup. They gave up possession 20 times, while earning 6 steals in the matchup. The Mercury were called for 14 fouls in this game which got the Liberty to the charity stripe for 9 attempts. They were able to bury 6 of those for a percentage of 66.7%. In relation to 3-pointers, New York buried 10 out of their 33 attempts (30.3%). When all was said and done, the Liberty shot 30 out of 72 from the field which gave them a percentage of 41.7%. The Liberty allowed the Mercury to make 25 out of their 77 tries from the field which left them shooting 32.5% for this game. They shot 23.1% from 3-point land by connecting on 6 of 26 and ended up going 13 of 16 at the free throw line (81.3%). When discussing attacking the glass, New York allowed Phoenix to grab 31 in total (5 on the offensive side).

Natasha Cloud ended up being a major contributor for the Liberty in the game. She made 9 out of 12 in the matchup for a rate of 75.0%, and had 6 rebounds. Cloud recorded 23 points in her 40 mins on the court and had 5 dimes for the matchup.

New York has a mark of 27-17 this season. New York has totaled 3,713 pts for the year (84.4 per game) and they pull in 33.7 boards per game. The Liberty commit 16.2 personal fouls per game and they hit 83.7% from the free throw line. As an offense, the Liberty are hitting on 45.3% from the field, which is ranked 4th in basketball. They are getting an assist 21.8 times per contest (2nd in the league) and they turn it over 12.9 times per game. The Liberty are ranked 6th in the league in points allowed per game with 80.3. The New York defense concedes 31.5% on 3-point shots (361 of 1,145) and their opposition knocks down 74.0% of their shots from the free throw line. They give up 19.8 assists and 35.3 boards per game, ranking them 7th and 11th in the WNBA. They are forcing their opponents into 12.6 turnovers per game and have let teams shoot 42.4% from the floor (3rd in the WNBA).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Phoenix (+2.5)

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