Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, 7/17/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury

Date: Friday, July 17, 2026

Location: Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ

TV: ION

Odds/Point Spread: Connecticut (+5.5)

The Phoenix Mercury (8-17) play the Connecticut Sun (6-18) at Mortgage Matchup Center on Friday. Phoenix opens this contest as 5.5 point favorites. The O/U opens at 163.5.

The Connecticut Sun faced the Portland Fire and took home the win by a score of 90-87 in their last contest. Connecticut walked away from the contest having earned a 52.2% FG percentage (35 out of 67) and buried 3 of their 14 shots from beyond the arc. When they shot from the free throw line, the Sun converted 17 of their 20 attempts for a rate of 85.0%. Regarding grabbing boards, they compiled 31 with 11 of them being on the offensive end. They also recorded 28 assists for this game while forcing the other team into 15 turnovers and having 11 steals. With respect to the defense, Connecticut allowed the other team to shoot 48.3% from the field on 29 out of 60 shooting. Portland distributed 19 dimes and had 10 steals in the matchup. Additionally, Portland snagged 24 rebounds (4 offensive, 20 defensive) and added 3 blocks. Portland finished the contest at 95.2% from the free throw line by making 20 of their 21 tries. They also buried 9 out of their 26 tries from distance.

Aaliyah Edwards is someone who was a factor in the game. She totaled 21 points on 9 out of 13 shooting. She was on the hardwood for 24 mins and grabbed 8 rebounds. Edwards finished the game at 69.2% from the floor and also recorded 3 assists.

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Connecticut enters this matchup with a record of 6-18 so far this season. They are averaging 79.7 points per contest (15th in the WNBA) on 43.5% from the field. The Sun are shooting 27.6% on shots from beyond the arc (120 of 435) and 69.1% from the charity stripe. As a unit, Connecticut is grabbing 33.2 rebounds per contest and has 461 dimes for the season, which is 13th in the league in terms of passing the rock. They are giving up possession 13.8 times per game and as a squad are committing 22.8 personal fouls per game. On the defensive end, the Sun are able to force 14.9 turnovers per contest and they draw 21.0 fouls. The Sun defensively are giving up a field goal percentage of 45.9% (357 of 504) and they surrender 32.7 rebounds per game as a group. They rank 6th in basketball in allowing assists to the opposition with 470 surrendered on the campaign. They relinquish 35.8% on 3-pointers and they rank 9th in the league in points per game allowed (86.4).

When they last stepped on the court, the Phoenix Mercury took a loss by a score of 104-100 against the Minnesota Lynx. The Mercury pulled down 22 defensive rebounds and 4 offensive rebounds totaling 26 in the game. They also turned it over 14 times, while recording 5 steals for the game. The Lynx committed 21 personal fouls in this game which got the Mercury to the charity stripe for a total of 21 shots. They were able to make 19 of them for a percentage of 90.5%. When discussing shots from downtown, Phoenix buried 11 of 25 attempts (44.0%). When this game wrapped up, the Mercury walked away from this one shooting 35 for 63 from the field which had them sitting at 55.6%. The Mercury allowed the Lynx to convert 34 out of their 61 attempts from the floor which gave them a percentage of 55.7% for the contest. They went 41.4% from 3-point land by shooting 12 out of 29 and ended up shooting 24 out of 26 from the free throw line (92.3%). When it comes to attacking the glass, Phoenix permitted Minnesota to collect 24 in total (4 on the offensive glass).

Kahleah Copper was important for the Mercury for this game. She converted 9 out of 14 for the game for a field goal rate of 64.3%, and accounted for 3 rebounds. Copper racked up 26 points in her 32 minutes of playing time and accounted for 1 assist in this game.

Phoenix has a mark of 8-17 this year. On the offensive side of the ball, the Mercury are connecting on 43.8% from the field, which is ranked 9th in the WNBA. Phoenix has totaled 2,082 points for the year (83.3 per contest) and they collect 31.6 rebounds per contest. They are assisting teammates 19.3 times per game (11th in the league) and they are losing possession via turnover 13.2 times per contest. The Mercury have committed 18.1 fouls per contest and they go 79.1% from the charity stripe. The Mercury on the defensive side of the court are 10th in the WNBA in points given up per game with 87.3. The Phoenix defense concedes 37.5% from downtown (256 of 682) and their opposition knocks down 80.4% of their free throw shots. They have relinquished 21.0 dimes and 33.4 rebounds on a nightly basis, which ranks them 13th and 9th in the WNBA. They are able to force 12.9 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 46.6% from the field (12th in basketball).

So what is Tonights Parlay prediction?

Parlay's Pundit's Pick: Take Phoenix (-5.5) and over 163.5 points

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