Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics Prediction, 7/28/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Connecticut Sun vs Washington Mystics

Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Location: CareFirst Arena in Washington, DC

TV: NBA TV

Odds/Point Spread: Connecticut (+5.5)

The Washington Mystics (14-12) play the Connecticut Sun (7-20) at CareFirst Arena on Tuesday. The line on this contest has Washington as 5.5 point favorites. The total has been set at 156.5.

The Connecticut Sun faced off with the Indiana Fever and ended up losing by a score of 123-88 in their last contest. Connecticut finished the game having earned a 44.3% FG percentage (35 of 79) and made 8 out of their 20 shots from beyond the perimeter. From the charity stripe, the Sun converted 10 of 15 tries for a percentage of 66.7%. When it comes to rebounding, they compiled 35 with 9 of them being offensive. They also dished out 13 dimes for the matchup as well as creating 14 turnovers and earning 6 steals. When discussing the defense, Connecticut allowed 61.6% from the field on 45 of 73 shooting. Indiana distributed 19 assists and had 11 steals in the game. Additionally, Indiana totaled 32 rebounds (8 offensive, 24 defensive) and got 3 blocks. Indiana finished the game shooting 81.5% from the free throw line by knocking down 22 of their 27 attempts. They also made 11 of 22 tries from long range.

Diamond Miller is someone who came through in this contest. She ended up walking away with 15 points on 4 out of 9 shooting. She played for 23 mins and collected 2 rebounds. Miller ended up shooting 44.4% from the floor but wasn't able to get a dime.

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Connecticut enters this game with a record of 7-20 this season. They average 80.0 points per contest (15th in the league) while hitting 43.6% from the field. The Sun are shooting 28.2% on three-point attempts (138 of 489) and 69.7% from the free throw line. As a team, Connecticut is collecting 33.1 boards per contest and has accumulated 519 dimes on the campaign, which is 13th in the WNBA in terms of passing. They turn it over 14.0 times per game and as a unit they are committing 22.9 fouls per game. Defensively, the Sun are forcing 14.7 turnovers per contest and they draw 20.6 fouls. The Sun defense is giving up a field goal percentage of 46.4% (397 of 557) and they surrender 32.5 boards per contest as a group. They are currently ranked 7th in the WNBA in giving up assists to their opponents with 536 relinquished so far this season. They are relinquishing 35.6% on 3-pointers and they are ranked 10th in the WNBA in opponents PPG (87.1).

In their last game, the Washington Mystics went home victorious with a score of 100-99 when they faced the Las Vegas Aces. The Mystics were able to collect 22 defensive rebounds and 12 offensive rebounds for a total of 34 in this matchup. They also gave up possession of the ball 13 times, while recording 3 steals in this matchup. The Aces committed 25 personal fouls in the game which took the Mystics to the charity stripe for a total of 31 shots. They were able to bury 23 of the free throws for a clip of 74.2%. In regard to three-point shots, Washington made 7 of 13 tries (53.8%). When the final whistle was blown, the Mystics finished the game shooting 35 for 71 from the field which had them sitting at 49.3%. The Mystics allowed the Aces to convert 34 of their 62 attempts from the field which gave them a rate of 54.8% for the contest. They shot 35.7% from distance by connecting on 5 of 14 and finished the game at 26 of 29 from the free throw line (89.7%). When talking about rebounding, Washington allowed Las Vegas to pull down 24 in total (4 on the offensive glass).

Shakira Austin ended up having an impact for the Mystics in this contest. She buried 10 of 18 in the game for a rate of 55.6%, and had 6 rebounds. Austin had 25 points in her 29 minutes on the hardwood and had 3 assists for the contest.

Washington has a win-loss mark of 14-12 for the year. Washington has accounted for 2,100 points this season (80.8 per contest) and they pull down 37.0 rebounds per contest. The Mystics are responsible for committing 20.3 fouls per contest and they hit 73.3% from the charity stripe. On the offensive side of the court, the Mystics are hitting on 43.7% from the field, which is 12th in the WNBA. Their rate of earning assists is at 19.3 times per contest (12th in basketball) and they are losing possession via turnover 16.0 times per game. The Mystics on the defensive side of the court are 3rd in the league in points allowed per game with 83.1. They are able to force 12.6 turnovers on a nightly basis and have let teams shoot 42.7% from the field (3rd in basketball). The Washington defense surrenders 32.2% from downtown (222 of 689) and opponents are converting on 78.7% of their free throw attempts. They have surrendered 19.3 assists and 30.4 boards per contest, which is ranked 3rd and 3rd in basketball.

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Connecticut (+5.5)

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