Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, 9/21/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury

Date: Monday, September 21, 2026

Location: Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ

TV: USA Net

Odds/Point Spread: Dallas (-5.5)

Mortgage Matchup Center is the venue where and the Phoenix Mercury (15-27) will play the Dallas Wings (26-16) on Monday. Dallas opens this contest as 5.5 point favorites. The over/under opens at 172.5.

The Dallas Wings faced the Phoenix Mercury and took home the win by a score of 87-82 in their last contest. Dallas ended the contest having earned a 42.3% FG percentage (30 of 71) and converted 8 of 25 shots from distance. At the charity stripe, the Wings made 19 of 26 shots for a rate of 73.1%. Concerning hauling in rebounds, they earned 32 with 7 of them being of the offensive sort. They also distributed 21 dimes in the game in addition to forcing 13 turnovers and getting 10 steals. When it comes to the defense, Dallas let their opponent shoot 43.5% from the floor on 30 of 69 shooting. Phoenix recorded 6 assists and had 5 steals in this matchup. On top of that, Phoenix pulled down 35 rebounds (6 offensive, 29 defensive) and had 6 blocked shots. Phoenix finished 71.4% from the charity stripe by knocking down 15 of their 21 attempts. They also knocked down 7 out of their 26 tries from 3-point land.

Paige Bueckers is a player who came through in this contest. She left the arena with 26 points on 10 out of 19 shooting. She saw the court for 31 mins played and collected 4 boards. Bueckers finished 52.6% from the field and recorded 5 dimes.

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Dallas steps onto the hardwood with a record of 26-16 so far this year. They average 89.1 pts per game (6th in basketball) while going 46.7% from the field. The Wings are shooting 34.2% on 3-point shots (344 of 1,007) and 78.9% from the free throw line. As a team, Dallas is collecting 34.5 rebounds per game and has tallied 923 assists on the season, which has them ranked 1st in basketball in terms of passing. They lose possession via turnover 11.0 times per contest and as a group are committing 18.3 fouls on a nightly basis. When they are on defense, the Wings are forcing 12.1 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 18.4 fouls. They concede 33.3% from beyond the arc and they rank 5th in basketball in opponents points per game (85.1). The Wings are giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 44.8% (508 of 772) and they concede 33.4 rebounds per game as a group. They are ranked 5th in basketball in allowing assists with 832 relinquished this season.

The last time they took the court, the Phoenix Mercury went home defeated by a final of 87-82 when they played the Dallas Wings. The Mercury were able to corral 29 defensive boards and 6 offensive boards totaling 35 for this game. They also coughed it up 13 times, while recording 5 steals in this game. The Wings were called for 19 fouls in this matchup which got the Mercury to the charity stripe for a total of 21 shots. They were able to make 15 of those for a rate of 71.4%. When talking about shots from 3-point land, Phoenix converted 7 of 26 tries (26.9%). Overall, the Mercury shot 30 out of 69 from the floor which had them shooting 43.5%. The Mercury permitted the Wings to convert 30 out of their 71 attempts from the field which left them with a shooting percentage of 42.3% for this game. They went 32.0% from downtown by shooting 8 of 25 and walked away from this one shooting 19 of 26 at the free throw line (73.1%). When discussing rebounding, Phoenix permitted Dallas to get 32 in total (7 on the offensive glass).

Lexi Held ended up being a major contributor for the Mercury in the matchup. She made 7 out of 11 for the contest giving her a field goal percentage of 63.6%, and totaled 2 rebounds. Held scored 21 points in her 26 minutes of playing time and added 3 dimes in the matchup.

Phoenix has a record of 15-27 on the season. As an offensive team, the Mercury are connecting on 44.5% from the field, which ranks 9th in the WNBA. Phoenix has tallied 3,543 pts on the year (84.4 per contest) and they grab 31.6 boards per game. They are dishing out assists 20.2 times per game (10th in the WNBA) and they lose possession via turnover 13.0 times per game. The Mercury are committing 18.9 personal fouls per game and they hit 78.8% from the charity stripe. The Mercury are ranked 8th in the league in points per game surrendered with 87.4. The Phoenix defense allows 35.8% from downtown (406 of 1,135) and their opponents are making 79.0% of their free throw attempts. They allow 21.3 assists and 33.8 boards on a nightly basis, which is 11th and 9th in the WNBA. They are forcing their opponents into 13.0 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 46.2% from the floor (10th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Phoenix (+6.5)

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