Golden State Valkyries vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, 10/9/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Golden State Valkyries vs Las Vegas Aces

Date: Friday, October 9, 2026

Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, NV

TV: Peacock

Odds/Point Spread: Golden State (+4.5)

The Golden State Valkyries (32-12) go to Michelob ULTRA Arena on Friday where they'll take on the Las Vegas Aces (31-13) in Game 3 of the WNBA Semifinals. Golden State leads 2-0. Las Vegas opens this matchup as 4.5 point favorites. The over/under is set at 157.

The Golden State Valkyries earned the victory by a final of 83-81 in Game 2. Golden State walked away from the game having earned a 41.4% FG percentage (24 out of 58) and converted 10 out of their 29 shots from beyond the arc. At the free throw line, the Valkyries buried 25 of 27 shots for a rate of 92.6%. With respect to pulling down rebounds, they earned a total of 52 with 17 of them being of the offensive sort. They also dished out 13 assists for the game while forcing the opposition into 6 turnovers and having 5 steals. Concerning defense, Golden State allowed their opponent to shoot 43.9% from the field on 25 of 57 shooting. Las Vegas totaled 2 assists and had 9 steals for this game. On top of that, Las Vegas collected 25 boards (2 offensive, 23 defensive) and added 3 blocks. Las Vegas finished the contest at 88.5% when shooting free throws by converting 23 of 26 shots. They also knocked down 8 of 19 tries from 3-point land.

Tiffany Hayes is a player who was a factor for this contest. She was able to score 21 points on 6 of 10 shooting. She was on the court for 17 minutes and also snagged 2 rebounds. Hayes ended up going 60.0% from the floor and recorded 2 assists.

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Golden State enters this contest with a mark of 32-12 this season. They average 82.2 pts per contest (14th in basketball) while connecting on 42.2% from the field. The Valkyries are hitting 34.4% on three-point shots (459 of 1,335) and 77.4% from the free throw line. As a team, Golden State is grabbing 33.3 boards per contest and has earned 851 assists this season, which has them ranked 13th in basketball in terms of passing the rock. They turn it over 10.4 times per game and as a group they commit 19.2 fouls on a nightly basis. Defensively, the Valkyries are forcing their opponents into 13.7 turnovers per contest while drawing 18.9 fouls. They surrender 32.6% on 3-point shots while they are 1st in the WNBA in points per game allowed (75.1). The Valkyries defense is allowing a FG percentage of 41.4% (1,146 of 2,769) and they relinquish 32.7 rebounds per game as a squad. They are 1st in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 802 surrendered so far this season.

In Game 2, the Aces snagged 19 defensive boards and 6 offensive rebounds for a total of 25 in this game. They turned it over 11 times, while recording 8 steals in this matchup. The Valkyries earned 25 personal fouls in this game which took the Aces to the free throw line for a total of 26 attempts. They were able to knock down 23 of the free throws for a percentage of 88.5%. When discussing 3-point shots, Las Vegas converted 8 of 19 attempts (42.1%). When the game finished, the Aces finished the game shooting 25 out of 57 from the field which gave them a percentage of 43.9%. The Aces permitted the Valkyries to convert 24 of 58 attempts from the floor which gave them a percentage of 41.4% in this matchup. They went 34.5% from three-point range by going 10 of 29 and walked away from this one shooting 25 out of 27 at the free throw line (92.6%). Concerning rebounding, Las Vegas allowed Golden State to grab 30 in all (10 offensive).

A'ja Wilson pitched in for the Aces for the game. She converted 9 of 16 for the matchup for a rate of 56.3%, and had 7 rebounds. Wilson scored 24 points in her 36 minutes on the hardwood and had 2 assists for the game.

Las Vegas has a record of 31-13 this year. The Aces commit 17.3 fouls per game and they go 81.4% from the free throw line. They are earning an assist 22.0 times per game (2nd in the league) and they are giving up possession 12.0 times per contest. Las Vegas has tallied 4,025 pts so far this season (91.5 per contest) and they snag 33.4 rebounds per contest. As an offense, the Aces are shooting 48.6% from the floor, which is ranked 2nd in the WNBA. The Aces on the defensive end are ranked 6th in the league in points allowed per contest with 85.8. The Las Vegas defense allows 34.9% on 3-point attempts (386 of 1,107) and opponents are knocking down 79.3% of their shots from the free throw line. They relinquish 18.9 dimes and 33.4 total boards per game, which ranks them 2nd and 8th in the WNBA. They are forcing 13.2 TO's per game and have let teams shoot 44.4% from the field (5th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Las Vegas (-4.5)

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