Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, 9/27/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces

Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026

Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, NV

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: Indiana (+4.5)

The Las Vegas Aces (31-13) play the Indiana Fever (28-16) at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Sunday in Game 1 of their first round series. Indiana opens this contest as 4.5 point dogs. The over/under is set at 182.5.

The Indiana Fever faced off with the Minnesota Lynx and took a loss by a score of 86-66 in their last game. Indiana wrapped up the game having earned a 34.2% FG percentage (25 out of 73) and buried 5 of their 32 three-point attempts. From the free throw line, the Fever made 11 of 20 attempts for a percentage of 55.0%. Regarding hauling in rebounds, they compiled 43 with 16 of them being of the offensive variety. They also recorded 13 assists for this contest while forcing the other team into 13 turnovers and having 9 steals. In relation to the defense, Indiana allowed the other team to shoot 44.0% from the field on 33 out of 75 shooting. Minnesota dished out 10 dimes and had 4 steals in the game. On top of that, Minnesota totaled 44 rebounds (10 offensive, 34 defensive) and had 3 blocked shots. Minnesota ended up shooting 83.3% from the free throw line by burying 5 of their 6 tries. They buried 15 out of their 40 tries from long range.

Kelsey Mitchell is someone who came through in this matchup. She walked away with 10 points on 3 of 12 shooting. She was on the hardwood for 22 mins played and also totaled 2 rebounds. Mitchell ended up shooting 25.0% from the floor and also totaled 1 assist.

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Indiana enters this contest with a record of 28-16 so far this season. They lose possession by turning the ball over 13.3 times per contest and as a team are committing 21.3 fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, Indiana is collecting 33.4 boards per game and is sitting with 910 dimes so far this year, which has them ranked 8th in basketball in terms of passing the ball. The Fever are hitting 38.6% on shots from distance (452 of 1,170) and 80.7% from the free throw line. They average 96.0 points per outing (1st in basketball) while shooting 48.7% from the floor. When they are on the defensive end, the Fever have forced 12.7 turnovers per game while drawing 22.1 fouls. The Fever are giving up an opponent FG percentage of 46.0% (557 of 971) and they relinquish 32.0 rebounds per contest as a basketball team. They currently rank 9th in the WNBA in allowing assists to the opposition with 922 relinquished so far this year. They relinquish 33.7% on shots from downtown while they are 11th in basketball in PPG allowed (90.4).

When they last played, the Las Vegas Aces went home victorious with a score of 100-82 when they faced the Phoenix Mercury. The Aces were able to collect 24 defensive boards and 9 offensive rebounds totaling 33 for this game. They also coughed up the ball 13 times, while earning 12 steals for the contest. The Mercury committed 13 fouls in this game which got the Aces to the charity stripe for a total of 8 tries. They were able to bury 7 of the free throws for a percentage of 87.5%. When discussing shots from distance, Las Vegas made 9 of their 19 attempts (47.4%). At the conclusion of this game, the Aces ended up shooting 42 out of 75 from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 56.0%. The Aces permitted the Mercury to bury 31 of their 70 attempts from the field which gave them a rate of 44.3% for the matchup. They went 30.8% from distance by going 8 of 26 and walked away from this one shooting 12 of 15 from the free throw line (80.0%). In regard to cleaning up the glass, Las Vegas allowed Phoenix to grab 33 in total (10 offensive).

A'ja Wilson ended up being a factor for the Aces for the game. She made 16 of 28 in the game giving her a field goal percentage of 57.1%, and had 10 rebounds. Wilson accumulated 34 points in her 35 mins on the hardwood and tallied 4 assists in this game.

Las Vegas has a win-loss mark of 31-13 this year. When it comes to executing on offense, the Aces are shooting 48.6% from the field, which ranks 2nd in the league. Las Vegas has accounted for 4,025 pts for the year (91.5 per contest) and they collect 33.4 rebounds per contest. They are dishing out assists 22.0 times per game (2nd in the WNBA) and they are turning it over 12.0 times per game. The Aces are responsible for committing 17.3 personal fouls per game while shooting 81.4% from the free throw line. The Aces defensively are ranked 6th in the WNBA in PPG allowed with 85.8. They have conceded 18.9 dimes and 33.4 boards on a nightly basis, which has them ranked 2nd and 8th in the league. The Las Vegas defense concedes 34.9% on shots from beyond the arc (386 of 1,107) and their opposition makes 79.3% of their free throw attempts. They are forcing their opponents into 13.2 turnovers on a nightly basis and have let teams shoot 44.4% from the floor (5th in the league).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Las Vegas (-4.5)

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