Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, 7/9/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury

Date: Thursday, July 9, 2026

Location: Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ

TV: Prime Video

Odds/Point Spread: Indiana (-5.5)

The Indiana Fever (12-8) go to Mortgage Matchup Center on Thursday where they'll meet the Phoenix Mercury (8-14). The odds on this game have Indiana as 5.5 point favorites. The O/U opens at 184.5.

The Indiana Fever faced the Las Vegas Aces and took home the win by a score of 84-68 in their last game. Indiana ended with a 42.9% FG percentage (30 out of 70) and buried 9 of 23 3-point attempts. At the free throw line, the Fever made 15 of their 20 attempts for a percentage of 75.0%. When discussing grabbing rebounds, they collected a total of 39 with 13 of them being on the offensive end. They also recorded 18 assists in this matchup as well as forcing the opposition into 13 turnovers and earning 5 steals. In reference to defending, Indiana allowed the other team to go 40.0% from the field on 22 out of 55 shooting. Las Vegas doled out 6 assists and had 5 steals for this game. Furthermore, Las Vegas snagged 30 rebounds (6 offensive, 24 defensive) and got 1 block. Las Vegas walked away from this one shooting 80.0% at the free throw line by knocking down 20 of 25 attempts. They also knocked down 4 of 19 shots from 3-point land.

Kelsey Mitchell is someone who had an impact in this contest. She ended up scoring 27 points on 7 out of 18 shooting. She was on the court for 33 mins played and also pulled down 2 rebounds. Mitchell ended up shooting 38.9% from the field and distributed 3 assists.

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Indiana comes into this contest with a win-loss record of 12-8 on the year. The Fever are connecting on 36.3% on shots from distance (195 of 537) and 82.0% from the free throw line. They currently have an average of 93.5 points per game (1st in basketball) while shooting 46.9% from the field. They turn the ball over 14.8 times per game and as a group are committing 24.0 fouls per game. As a unit, Indiana is collecting 34.5 boards per game and has racked up 420 dimes on the season, which ranks 8th in the league in terms of passing the rock. On the defensive end of the court, the Fever are able to force 12.4 turnovers per contest while drawing 23.5 fouls. The Fever defense is giving up a FG percentage of 45.5% (248 of 469) and they concede 30.4 rebounds per game as a unit. They rank 1st in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 385 relinquished on the season. They relinquish 32.2% on shots from beyond the perimeter while they are 12th in the league in opponents PPG (88.9).

The last time they took the hardwood, the Phoenix Mercury went home defeated by a final of 77-66 when they played the Chicago Sky. The Mercury were able to pull down 25 defensive rebounds and 6 offensive boards totaling 31 in the game. They also turned the ball over 20 times, while earning 11 steals in this game. The Sky committed 23 personal fouls in the game which got the Mercury to the free throw line for 24 tries. They were able to knock down 19 of the free throw tries for a percentage of 79.2%. When talking about 3-point attempts, Phoenix knocked down 7 out of their 24 attempts (29.2%). When this game wrapped up, the Mercury went 20 for 54 from the field which had them shooting 37.0%. The Mercury permitted the Sky to make 26 out of their 62 attempts from the field which had them sitting at 41.9% in this matchup. They went 40.7% from distance via 11 out of 27 and ended up shooting 14 out of 20 at the free throw line (70.0%). In the matter of rebounding, Phoenix permitted Chicago to grab 35 in total (7 on the offensive glass).

Kahleah Copper ended up being a major contributor for the Mercury for this game. She buried 9 out of 19 for this game giving her a rate of 47.4%, and accumulated 4 rebounds. Copper tallied 25 points in her 34 mins of playing time and added 1 assist for the game.

Phoenix has a record of 8-14 for the season. The Mercury commit 18.4 personal fouls per contest and they hit 78.9% from the free throw line. They are dishing out assists 19.0 times per game (12th in the WNBA) and they turn it over 13.1 times per contest. Phoenix has earned 1,835 points so far this season (83.4 per game) and they average 32.2 boards per game. On the offensive side of the court, the Mercury are hitting on 43.4% from the floor, which is ranked 10th in the WNBA. The Mercury defensively are ranked 8th in the league in points given up per game with 85.5. They have allowed 20.7 dimes and 33.4 rebounds per game, which ranks 12th and 8th in the WNBA. The Phoenix defense gives up 36.9% on 3-point attempts (218 of 591) and their opponents are connecting on 78.8% of their free throw attempts. They are able to force 13.3 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 45.9% from the field (10th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Phoenix (+5.5)

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