Las Vegas Aces vs Golden State Valkyries Prediction, 10/4/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Las Vegas Aces vs Golden State Valkyries

Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026

Location: Chase Center in San Francisco, CA

TV: NBC

Odds/Point Spread: Las Vegas (+1.5)

The Las Vegas Aces (31-13) head to Chase Center on Sunday where they'll meet the Golden State Valkyries (32-12) in Game 1 of the WNBA Semifinals. The line on this contest has Golden State as 1.5 point favorites. The O/U has been set at 162.5.

The Las Vegas Aces took the court against the Indiana Fever and went home with a win by a final score of 94-83 in their last contest. Las Vegas ended the game having earned a 45.3% FG percentage (29 of 64) and knocked down 8 of 20 shots from beyond the arc. At the free throw line, the Aces knocked down 28 of 35 attempts for a rate of 80.0%. Concerning grabbing rebounds, they compiled 34 with 2 of them being of the offensive sort. They also doled out 15 assists for the matchup as well as forcing the other team into 10 turnovers and earning 4 steals. When it comes to defending, Las Vegas allowed their opponent to shoot 38.5% from the floor on 30 of 78 shooting. Indiana recorded 9 dimes and had 8 steals in this matchup. In addition, Indiana had 38 boards (9 offensive, 29 defensive) and got 6 blocks. Indiana went 70.0% when shooting free throws by knocking down 14 of their 20 attempts. They knocked down 9 out of their 32 shots from three-point range.

A'ja Wilson is someone who came through for the contest. She ended up finishing with 36 points on 11 out of 18 shooting. She played for 37 minutes and pulled down 10 rebounds. Wilson shot 61.1% from the field and also totaled 1 assist.

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Las Vegas enters this matchup with a win-loss record of 31-13 on the season. They lose possession by turning the ball over 12.0 times per contest and as a group they commit 17.3 personal fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, Las Vegas is snagging 33.4 rebounds per contest and is sitting with 970 assists for the campaign, which has them ranked 2nd in the league in terms of passing the rock. The Aces are hitting 36.2% on three-point shots (382 of 1,054) and 81.4% from the charity stripe. They have an average of 91.5 pts per contest (2nd in basketball) while hitting 48.6% from the floor. Defensively, the Aces are forcing their opponents into 13.2 turnovers per contest and they draw 19.4 personal fouls. They are surrendering 34.9% from 3-point land and they are 6th in the league in points per game allowed (85.8). The Aces defense is giving up a shooting percentage of 44.4% (580 of 854) and they surrender 33.4 boards per game as a squad. They rank 2nd in the WNBA in giving up assists to their opponents with 833 relinquished this year.

The last time they took the court, the Golden State Valkyries took home the win by a final score of 77-73 when they played the Dallas Wings. The Valkyries pulled down 23 defensive rebounds and 6 offensive boards for a total of 29 in this game. They gave up possession 10 times, while earning 8 steals in this matchup. The Wings committed 22 fouls in this contest which took the Valkyries to the charity stripe for a total of 18 shots. They were able to make 14 of those for a rate of 77.8%. When discussing 3-point attempts, Golden State knocked down 9 out of 29 tries (31.0%). When the game finished, the Valkyries shot 27 for 77 from the floor which had them shooting 35.1%. The Valkyries permitted the Wings to make 26 of 59 tries from the floor which had them sitting at 44.1% for this game. They shot 31.3% from 3-point land by shooting 5 out of 16 and finished the game at 16 out of 19 from the free throw line (84.2%). In relation to how they cleaned up the glass, Golden State allowed Dallas to get 29 in total (7 on the offensive side).

Gabby Williams was important for the Valkyries in this contest. She converted 6 out of 17 in the game giving her a field goal percentage of 35.3%, and accounted for 4 rebounds. Williams earned 19 points in her 31 minutes on the court and totaled 2 dimes in the game.

Golden State has a win-loss mark of 32-12 on the campaign. The Valkyries have committed 19.2 fouls per game while shooting 77.4% from the free throw line. They are assisting teammates 19.3 times per contest (13th in the league) and they are giving up possession 10.4 times per game. Golden State has totaled 3,615 pts on the year (82.2 per game) and they grab 33.3 boards per contest. On the offensive side of the court, the Valkyries are shooting 42.2% from the floor, which ranks them 15th in the league. The Valkyries on the defensive side of the court are 1st in the WNBA in points per game surrendered with 75.1. The Golden State defense surrenders 32.6% on 3-pointers (353 of 1,082) and their opposition makes 75.9% of their foul shots. They have allowed 18.2 dimes and 32.7 boards per game, which ranks them 1st and 5th in the WNBA. They are forcing their opponents into 13.7 turnovers per game and have let teams shoot 41.4% from the field (1st in the league).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Golden State (-1.5)

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