Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, 5/12/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury

Date: Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Location: Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ

TV: WNBA League Pass

Odds/Point Spread: Minnesota (+3.5)

Mortgage Matchup Center is the site where and the Phoenix Mercury (1-1) will take on the Minnesota Lynx (0-1) on Tuesday. Phoenix opens this matchup as 3.5 point favorites. The O/U is set at 169.5.

The Minnesota Lynx faced off with the Atlanta Dream and took a loss by a score of 91-90 in their last game. Minnesota ended the contest having earned a 50.0% FG percentage (35 out of 70) and buried 5 of 18 three-point shots. From the free throw line, the Lynx made 15 of their 22 shots for a rate of 68.2%. Concerning hauling in boards, they earned a total of 25 with 7 of them being offensive. They also dished out 20 assists for the game as well as forcing the opposition into 20 turnovers and having 10 steals. With respect to defending, Minnesota let their opponent shoot 42.5% from the floor on 31 out of 73 shooting. Atlanta recorded 19 dimes and had 9 steals in this matchup. In addition, Atlanta collected 46 boards (19 offensive, 27 defensive) and added 6 rejections. Atlanta ended up going 73.3% at the free throw line by knocking down 22 of 30 shots. They knocked down 7 of their 29 shots from 3-point land.

Olivia Miles is a player who was a contributor in the game. She ended up with 21 points on 6 out of 14 shooting. She saw the court for 34 mins and pulled down 3 boards. Miles shot 42.9% from the floor and dished out 8 assists.

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Minnesota steps onto the hardwood with a win-loss record of 0-1 so far this season. They are averaging 90.0 points per game (7th in basketball) while hitting 50.0% from the field. The Lynx are shooting 27.8% on 3-pointers (5 of 18) and 68.2% from the free throw line. As a team, Minnesota is collecting 25.0 boards per contest and is sitting with 20 dimes so far this year, which has them ranked 12th in the league in terms of passing. They turn the ball over 15.0 times per game and as a group they are committing 24.0 personal fouls on a nightly basis. On the defensive end, the Lynx have forced 20.0 turnovers per contest and they draw 18.0 fouls. They rank 4th in basketball in allowing assists to the opposition with 22 relinquished for the campaign. The Lynx are giving up an opponent shooting percentage of 42.5% (20 of 18) and they surrender 46.0 boards per game as a basketball team. They are giving up 24.1% on 3-pointers and they are ranked 10th in the league in points per game from their opponents (91.0).

When they last stepped on the court, the Phoenix Mercury took a loss by a score of 95-79 against the Golden State Valkyries. The Mercury were able to collect 20 defensive boards and 4 offensive boards for a total of 24 for this contest. They turned it over 17 times, while getting 2 steals in this matchup. The Valkyries were called for 21 personal fouls for this game which took the Mercury to the free throw line for 19 attempts. They were able to knock down 16 of those for a rate of 84.2%. With respect to 3-pointers, Phoenix buried 11 out of their 22 tries (50.0%). When this game wrapped up, the Mercury shot 26 out of 54 from the field which had them sitting at 48.1%. The Mercury permitted the Valkyries to convert 33 of 67 attempts from the floor which had them shooting 49.3% for this contest. They finished shooting 39.4% from 3-point land by going 13 out of 33 and walked away from this one shooting 16 out of 18 at the charity stripe (88.9%). When it comes to team rebounding, Phoenix allowed Golden State to grab 30 overall (6 on the offensive side).

Alyssa Thomas pitched in for the Mercury for the game. She buried 5 of 9 in this matchup for a field goal rate of 55.6%, and added 9 rebounds. Thomas had 19 points in her 38 minutes of playing time and accounted for 11 assists in the game.

Phoenix has a mark of 1-1 for the season. As an offensive unit, the Mercury are shooting 48.9% from the floor, which has them ranked 6th in the league. Phoenix has accounted for 178 pts on the year (89.0 per game) and they grab 30.5 rebounds per game. They are earning an assist 21.5 times per contest (8th in the WNBA) and they cough up possession 12.0 times per game. The Mercury have committed 15.5 fouls per game while shooting 82.4% from the free throw line. The Mercury on defense are ranked 3rd in basketball in PPG given up with 80.5. They have allowed 22.0 dimes and 32.5 rebounds per contest, which ranks them 11th and 7th in basketball. The Phoenix defense concedes 32.7% from downtown (17 of 52) and opponents are connecting on 76.9% of their free throw shots. They are forcing 13.0 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 44.9% from the field (9th in basketball).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Phoenix (-3.5)

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