New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream Prediction, 10/4/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: New York Liberty vs Atlanta Dream

Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026

Location: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+4.0)

The Atlanta Dream (30-14) play the New York Liberty (26-18) at State Farm Arena on Sunday in Game 1 of the WNBA Semifinals. Atlanta opens this matchup as 4 point favorites. The O/U is set at 174.

The New York Liberty faced off with the Minnesota Lynx and notched a win by a score of 87-71 in their last contest. New York ended the game with a 46.4% field goal percentage (32 out of 69) and converted 10 out of their 32 3-point attempts. From the charity stripe, the Liberty converted 13 of their 13 tries for a rate of 100.0%. When talking about grabbing rebounds, they collected 36 with 12 of them being of the offensive variety. They also doled out 19 dimes for this contest in addition to creating 10 turnovers and having 7 steals. Concerning defending, New York allowed the other team to shoot 38.2% from the field on 26 of 68 shooting. Minnesota doled out 11 assists and had 8 steals for the contest. Additionally, Minnesota pulled down 29 rebounds (11 offensive, 18 defensive) and earned 4 blocked shots. Minnesota ended up shooting 78.6% from the free throw line by burying 11 of 14 shots. They converted 8 of 20 shots from downtown.

Jonquel Jones is a player who had an impact for the matchup. She ended up with 21 points on 9 of 14 shooting. She played for 32 minutes and also totaled 13 boards. Jones finished 64.3% from the floor and also earned 2 assists.

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New York comes into this contest with a record of 26-18 so far this year. They are averaging 89.6 points per game (5th in the league) while shooting 46.0% from the field. The Liberty are connecting on 34.8% on shots from beyond the arc (449 of 1,290) and 84.5% from the charity stripe. As a team, New York is pulling in 35.5 rebounds per game and has accumulated 916 dimes for the season, which ranks 7th in the WNBA in terms of passing. They cough up possession 13.7 times per contest and as a team are committing 18.7 fouls on a nightly basis. On defense, the Liberty are able to force 11.0 turnovers per game and they draw 20.5 personal fouls. The Liberty defense is allowing an opponent shooting percentage of 44.8% (484 of 904) and they surrender 31.5 rebounds per game as a team. They are currently ranked 11th in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 941 relinquished this year. They are conceding 34.2% on 3-point attempts and they rank 7th in the league in PPG allowed (86.4).

When they last stepped on the hardwood, the Atlanta Dream took home the win by a final score of 93-75 when they played the Washington Mystics. The Dream were able to pull down 20 defensive rebounds and 7 offensive boards for a total of 27 for the contest. They also gave up possession of the ball 8 times, while recording 10 steals in the matchup. The Mystics committed 27 fouls for the contest which got the Dream to the free throw line for 22 shots. They were able to bury 20 of them for a clip of 90.9%. In the matter of 3-pointers, Atlanta made 13 out of 32 attempts (40.6%). When this game wrapped up, the Dream finished shooting 30 for 67 from the field which had them shooting 44.8%. The Dream permitted the Mystics to convert 22 out of their 58 attempts from the floor which gave them a shooting percentage of 37.9% for the game. They finished the game shooting 31.8% from 3-point land by connecting on 7 out of 22 and ended up shooting 24 out of 28 at the free throw line (85.7%). Concerning how they attacked the glass, Atlanta permitted Washington to snag 42 in all (12 offensive).

Allisha Gray pitched in for the Dream in the game. She made 8 of 18 for the matchup giving her a rate of 44.4%, and had 1 rebound. Gray tallied 22 points in her 35 mins on the court and had 3 assists in the game.

Atlanta has a record of 30-14 so far this season. The Dream are committing 19.6 fouls per game and they shoot 78.6% from the free throw line. Their rate of earning assists is at 21.5 times per contest (6th in the WNBA) and they turn it over 12.6 times per contest. Atlanta has scored 4,019 points so far this season (91.3 per contest) and they collect 35.6 rebounds per game. In terms of offensive execution, the Dream are connecting on 44.2% from the field, which is 11th in basketball. The Dream on the defensive end are ranked 4th in the WNBA in points per game surrendered with 84.5. They concede 19.2 dimes and 31.0 boards on a nightly basis, ranking them 3rd and 2nd in the WNBA. The Atlanta defense allows 34.8% on shots from behind the 3-point line (355 of 1,019) and opponents are knocking down 76.9% of their shots from the free throw line. They are able to force 15.4 turnovers per game and have allowed teams to shoot 46.9% from the field (13th in the WNBA).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take New York (+4.0)

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