New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces Prediction, 7/30/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces

Date: Thursday, July 30, 2026

Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, NV

TV: Prime Video

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+3.5)

The New York Liberty (16-12) travel to Michelob ULTRA Arena on Thursday where they'll take on the Las Vegas Aces (19-8). Las Vegas opens this contest as 3.5 point favorites. The O/U opens at 177.5.

The New York Liberty faced the Los Angeles Sparks and went home with a win by a final score of 113-109 in their last game. New York finished having earned a 58.6% FG percentage (41 of 70) and converted 17 of their 32 three-point shots. At the free throw line, the Liberty converted 14 of 16 attempts for a rate of 87.5%. When discussing grabbing boards, they earned 28 with 7 of them being on the offensive end. They also dished out 27 dimes in this matchup as well as creating 15 turnovers and earning 10 steals. In regard to the defense, New York let their opponent shoot 60.3% from the floor on 44 out of 73 shooting. Los Angeles distributed 2 dimes and had 10 steals for the game. Moreover, Los Angeles had 21 boards (2 offensive, 19 defensive) and had 1 block. Los Angeles went 71.4% when shooting free throws by knocking down 5 of their 7 tries. They also knocked down 16 of their 31 shots from long range.

Breanna Stewart is a player who was a major factor for the game. She totaled 29 points on 11 of 19 shooting. She played for 37 mins played and also collected 4 rebounds. Stewart shot 57.9% from the field and also totaled 7 dimes.

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New York comes into this matchup with a win-loss mark of 16-12 this season. The Liberty are connecting on 35.4% on shots from downtown (287 of 810) and 85.0% from the free throw line. They are averaging 89.4 points per outing (5th in the league) while shooting 46.0% from the field. They turn it over 14.1 times per game and as a group they are committing 18.8 fouls per game. As a team, New York is pulling down 34.5 rebounds per game and has accounted for 571 dimes this year, which ranks 9th in the WNBA in terms of passing the rock. When they are on defense, the Liberty are forcing their opponents into 11.4 turnovers per game while drawing 21.1 personal fouls. The Liberty defense is allowing an opponent shooting percentage of 45.1% (318 of 592) and they concede 31.5 rebounds per contest as a group. They are 12th in the WNBA in giving up assists with 604 relinquished so far this year. They are surrendering 34.9% on 3-point shots and they are 8th in basketball in PPG allowed (87.0).

The last time they took the court, the Las Vegas Aces got the win with a final of 98-83 when they faced the Portland Fire. The Aces pulled down 28 defensive boards and 2 offensive boards for a total of 30 in the matchup. They gave up possession of the ball 12 times, while getting 7 steals in this contest. The Fire were called for 23 fouls in this game which took the Aces to the free throw line for a total of 26 attempts. They were able to make 23 of the free throws for a percentage of 88.5%. In reference to shots from 3-point land, Las Vegas converted 9 out of 22 attempts (40.9%). When this game wrapped up, the Aces finished shooting 33 out of 57 from the field which gave them a rate of 57.9%. The Aces permitted the Fire to bury 27 of 68 attempts from the floor which left them shooting 39.7% for this game. They shot 29.0% from distance by going 9 of 31 and ended up going 20 out of 25 from the free throw line (80.0%). In the matter of attacking the glass, Las Vegas allowed Portland to pull down 33 overall (12 on the offensive glass).

A'ja Wilson was important for the Aces for the game. She knocked down 7 out of 10 in the game for a rate of 70.0%, and had 14 rebounds. Wilson accumulated 28 points in her 30 minutes on the court and earned 4 assists in this matchup.

Las Vegas has a win-loss mark of 19-8 so far this year. The Aces are committing 17.7 fouls per contest while shooting 79.1% from the charity stripe. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 22.4 times per contest (2nd in the WNBA) and they lose possession via turnover 11.8 times per game. Las Vegas has accumulated 2,464 pts on the year (91.3 per game) and they grab 34.1 boards per game. When it comes to offensive execution, the Aces are hitting on 49.3% from the floor, which ranks them 1st in basketball. The Aces on the defensive end are ranked 6th in the WNBA in PPG given up with 86.2. They have given up 18.9 dimes and 33.3 rebounds on a nightly basis, which ranks them 2nd and 8th in basketball. The Las Vegas defense allows 34.8% on 3-point attempts (244 of 701) and their opponents are making 79.9% of their free throw attempts. They are forcing 12.1 turnovers per game and have let teams shoot 43.8% from the field (5th in the league).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take New York (+3.5)

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