New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction, 9/27/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx

Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026

Location: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+7.5)

Target Center is the venue where and the Minnesota Lynx (33-11) will take on the New York Liberty (26-18) on Sunday in Game 1 of their 1st round series. New York opens this game as 7.5 point dogs. The over/under is set at 174.5.

The New York Liberty faced off with the Atlanta Dream and took a loss by a score of 83-65 in their last contest. New York wrapped up the game with a 36.4% FG percentage (20 out of 55) and made 5 out of their 29 three-point shots. From the free throw line, the Liberty knocked down 20 of their 22 tries for a percentage of 90.9%. When discussing grabbing boards, they compiled a total of 40 with 7 of them being of the offensive variety. They also recorded 15 dimes in this contest while forcing the other team into 6 turnovers and earning 3 steals. In regard to defense, New York allowed 39.0% from the floor on 30 out of 77 shooting. Atlanta totaled 12 dimes and had 12 steals in this contest. Furthermore, Atlanta snagged 35 rebounds (12 offensive, 23 defensive) and had 1 block. Atlanta went 86.7% when shooting free throws by converting 13 of their 15 attempts. They made 10 of 35 tries from three-point range.

Marine Fauthoux is a player who was a major factor in the matchup. She was able to score 14 points on 3 out of 6 shooting. She played 17 mins played and collected 3 boards. Fauthoux shot 50.0% from the field and earned 4 assists.

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New York heads into this matchup with a win-loss mark of 26-18 for the season. They are averaging 89.6 pts per game (5th in basketball) on 46.0% from the field. The Liberty are connecting on 34.8% on shots from downtown (449 of 1,290) and 84.5% from the charity stripe. As a unit, New York is snagging 35.5 boards per game and is sitting with 916 assists this season, which ranks 7th in the WNBA in terms of passing the rock. They are turning it over 13.7 times per contest and as a group they commit 18.7 fouls per contest. When they are on defense, the Liberty are forcing their opponents into 11.0 turnovers per game while drawing 20.5 fouls. The Liberty are giving up a shooting percentage of 44.8% (484 of 904) and they surrender 31.5 rebounds per contest as a unit. They are 11th in the league in allowing assists with 941 relinquished on the season. They are surrendering 34.2% from 3-point land and they are 7th in the WNBA in points per game allowed (86.4).

When they last stepped on the court, the Minnesota Lynx got the win with a final of 86-66 against the Indiana Fever. The Lynx recorded 34 defensive rebounds and 10 offensive rebounds for a total of 44 in the matchup. They turned it over 13 times, while earning 4 steals for this game. The Fever had 13 fouls for this contest which took the Lynx to the free throw line for a total of 6 shots. They were able to knock down 5 of the free throws for a percentage of 83.3%. Regarding shots from distance, Minnesota converted 15 of their 40 tries (37.5%). When all was said and done, the Lynx ended up shooting 33 for 75 from the field which had them shooting 44.0%. The Lynx permitted the Fever to bury 25 of their 73 attempts from the floor which had them shooting 34.2% for the game. They finished 15.6% from 3-point land by shooting 5 out of 32 and ended up going 11 out of 20 at the free throw line (55.0%). When discussing rebounding, Minnesota allowed Indiana to collect 43 overall (16 offensive).

Kayla McBride ended up being a factor for the Lynx for the matchup. She buried 8 out of 13 for the contest for a field goal percentage of 61.5%, and totaled 2 rebounds. McBride earned 22 points in her 24 mins of playing time and had 3 assists for this game.

Minnesota has a mark of 33-11 on the campaign. The Lynx are committing 18.3 fouls per contest and they hit 81.5% from the free throw line. They are earning an assist 21.8 times per contest (3rd in the WNBA) and they turn the ball over 12.6 times per contest. Minnesota has totaled 3,997 pts on the campaign (90.8 per game) and they pull in 34.5 boards per game. When it comes to offensive execution, the Lynx are connecting on 47.7% from the floor, which is ranked 3rd in basketball. The Lynx on the defensive end are ranked 3rd in the WNBA in PPG given up with 83.7. They are able to force 14.5 TO's per game and have allowed teams to shoot 43.5% from the floor (3rd in basketball). The Minnesota defense concedes 32.9% on three-point shots (407 of 1,236) and their opponents are converting on 77.9% of their shots from the free throw line. They have given up 20.5 assists and 33.2 rebounds per contest, which is ranked 7th and 6th in the WNBA.

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take New York (+7.5)

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