New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, 8/1/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury

Date: Saturday, August 1, 2026

Location: Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ

TV: ABC

Odds/Point Spread: New York (-2.5)

The New York Liberty (16-13) head to Mortgage Matchup Center on Saturday where they'll take on the Phoenix Mercury (11-18). New York opens this matchup as 2.5 point favorites. The over/under opens at 175.5.

The New York Liberty took the court against the Las Vegas Aces and ended up losing by a score of 104-99 in their last game. New York wrapped up the game having earned a 51.5% field goal percentage (35 out of 68) and knocked down 8 out of their 22 3-point shots. When they shot from the charity stripe, the Liberty converted 21 of 25 shots for a percentage of 84.0%. In reference to grabbing rebounds, they collected 34 with 8 of them being of the offensive variety. They also doled out 20 assists for the game in addition to forcing the other team into 10 turnovers and having 9 steals. In the matter of defense, New York allowed the other team to shoot 51.6% from the field on 33 of 64 shooting. Las Vegas doled out 3 dimes and had 5 steals for the game. Additionally, Las Vegas collected 26 rebounds (3 offensive, 23 defensive) and had 4 blocks. Las Vegas ended up shooting 92.6% at the free throw line by converting 25 of their 27 attempts. They also converted 13 out of their 28 attempts from beyond the arc.

Breanna Stewart is one player who was a major contributor for the matchup. She ended up scoring 26 points on 10 out of 20 shooting. She played for 37 mins and grabbed 11 rebounds. Stewart ended up going 50.0% from the field and totaled 1 assist.

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New York heads into this contest with a mark of 16-13 for the campaign. They lose possession by turning the ball over 14.0 times per game and as a group are committing 18.9 personal fouls per contest. As a team, New York is snagging 34.5 boards per game and is sitting with 591 dimes this year, which ranks 5th in the WNBA in terms of passing the ball. The Liberty are shooting 35.5% on three-point shots (295 of 832) and 84.9% from the charity stripe. They average 89.7 points per game (5th in basketball) while hitting 46.2% from the floor. On the defensive end, the Liberty are forcing 11.3 turnovers per game and they draw 21.1 fouls. The Liberty defense is allowing a shooting percentage of 45.3% (328 of 613) and they concede 31.3 boards per game as a basketball team. They currently rank 14th in basketball in allowing assists to the opposition with 629 relinquished on the year. They surrender 35.3% on shots from distance and they are ranked 9th in basketball in opponents points per game (87.6).

When they last played, the Phoenix Mercury walked away with a victory by a final of 91-89 when they played the Golden State Valkyries. The Mercury recorded 28 defensive rebounds and 6 offensive boards for a total of 34 in this matchup. They coughed up the ball 10 times, while earning 3 steals in the game. The Valkyries were called for 34 fouls in this contest which took the Mercury to the free throw line for 43 shots. They were able to convert 32 of those for a clip of 74.4%. In reference to shots from 3-point land, Phoenix buried 5 of 16 attempts (31.3%). When the final whistle blew, the Mercury walked away from this one shooting 27 out of 55 from the floor which gave them a rate of 49.1%. The Mercury permitted the Valkyries to make 31 of 76 attempts from the field which gave them a rate of 40.8% for the game. They finished the game shooting 36.4% from 3-point land by going 12 of 33 and finished the game at 15 of 19 at the charity stripe (78.9%). Regarding rebounds, Phoenix permitted Golden State to get 33 overall (13 offensive).

Kahleah Copper ended up being a factor for the Mercury for this game. She converted 9 of 14 in this contest giving her a field goal percentage of 64.3%, and added 4 rebounds. Copper had 27 points in her 34 mins of playing time and had 4 assists for the contest.

Phoenix has a mark of 11-18 so far this season. The Mercury are responsible for committing 18.4 fouls per contest and they hit 78.7% from the free throw line. They are dishing out assists 19.5 times per game (11th in basketball) and they are turning it over 13.1 times per game. Phoenix has earned 2,414 pts so far this season (83.2 per game) and they average 31.6 boards per contest. In terms of offensive execution, the Mercury are hitting on 44.1% from the floor, which is ranked 10th in basketball. The Mercury are ranked 6th in the league in points allowed per game with 86.6. They have relinquished 20.9 dimes and 33.6 rebounds on a nightly basis, ranking them 11th and 9th in the league. The Phoenix defense allows 36.9% on 3-point shots (287 of 777) and their opponents are converting on 80.2% of their foul shots. They are forcing 13.1 turnovers on a nightly basis and have allowed teams to shoot 46.1% from the field (9th in the league).

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Guy Bruhn's Pick: Take Phoenix (+2.5)

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