Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Prediction, 8/7/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun

Date: Friday, August 7, 2026

Location: Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, CT

TV: ION

Odds/Point Spread: Phoenix (-5.5)

The Connecticut Sun (7-23) play the Phoenix Mercury (12-20) at Mohegan Sun Arena on Friday. The odds on this game have Phoenix as 5.5 point favorites. The over/under is set at 173.5.

The Phoenix Mercury took the court against the Atlanta Dream and went home with a loss by a final score of 96-82 in their last contest. Phoenix ended with a 40.6% FG percentage (26 out of 64) and knocked down 7 of their 24 shots from distance. From the free throw line, the Mercury made 23 of 26 attempts for a rate of 88.5%. In the matter of hauling in rebounds, they compiled 28 with 4 of them being on the offensive end. They also doled out 22 assists for this contest while forcing 12 turnovers and earning 4 steals. With respect to defense, Phoenix allowed their opponent to shoot 47.1% from the floor on 33 out of 70 shooting. Atlanta earned 7 dimes and had 3 steals for this contest. Moreover, Atlanta snagged 38 rebounds (7 offensive, 31 defensive) and got 6 blocks. Atlanta ended up shooting 94.1% when shooting free throws by making 16 of their 17 shots. They converted 14 of their 33 tries from 3-point range.

Kelsey Plum is a player who came through in the matchup. She was able to score 19 points on 6 out of 10 shooting. She was on the court for 26 mins played and also grabbed 5 rebounds. Plum finished the game at 60.0% from the field and dished out 4 assists.

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Phoenix steps onto the hardwood with a record of 12-20 on the season. The Mercury are shooting 32.4% on 3-point shots (247 of 763) and 79.0% from the free throw line. They are averaging 84.2 points per game (11th in basketball) while hitting 44.4% from the field. They are giving up possession 12.8 times per contest and as a team they commit 18.3 fouls per game. As a unit, Phoenix is snagging 31.3 rebounds per game and has earned 635 assists so far this year, which is 8th in the league in terms of passing the rock. On defense, the Mercury have forced 12.9 turnovers on a nightly basis and they draw 21.7 personal fouls. They give up 37.0% on shots from downtown and they rank 9th in the WNBA in PPG allowed (87.6). The Mercury are giving up a field goal percentage of 46.3% (414 of 695) and they relinquish 33.9 rebounds per contest as a basketball team. They currently rank 13th in the WNBA in giving up assists to the opposition with 689 relinquished on the campaign.

In their last game, the Connecticut Sun went home defeated by a final of 83-63 against the Dallas Wings. The Sun snagged 22 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive boards for a total of 31 for the game. They also coughed up the ball 15 times, while recording 6 steals in this game. The Wings committed 15 fouls in the game which got the Sun to the charity stripe for 13 tries. They were able to convert 8 of those for a percentage of 61.5%. When talking about shots from 3-point land, Connecticut made 9 out of their 23 attempts (39.1%). When the game finished, the Sun shot 23 out of 67 from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 34.3%. The Sun permitted the Wings to make 33 out of 69 attempts from the field which left them with a shooting percentage of 47.8% in the game. They finished shooting 38.9% from downtown by hitting 7 out of 18 and walked away from this one shooting 10 out of 12 at the free throw line (83.3%). When talking about rebounding, Connecticut allowed Dallas to snag 38 in total (7 on the offensive side).

Diamond Miller pitched in for the Sun in the matchup. She knocked down 8 out of 15 in the game for a rate of 53.3%, and had 4 rebounds. Miller accumulated 22 points in her 30 minutes on the court and tallied 1 assist for this game.

Connecticut has a record of 7-23 this year. Connecticut has scored 2,395 pts on the year (79.8 per contest) and they pull in 32.9 boards per game. The Sun have committed 22.9 personal fouls per contest and they hit 69.6% from the free throw line. When it comes to executing on offense, the Sun are shooting 43.3% from the floor, which ranks 14th in basketball. Their rate of assisting teammates is at 19.2 times per contest (14th in basketball) and they turn it over 13.9 times per game. The Sun on defense are ranked 7th in the WNBA in points allowed per contest with 87.3. They are forcing their opponents into 14.6 turnovers per game and allow teams to shoot 46.4% from the field (10th in the league). The Connecticut defense allows 35.8% on shots from beyond the perimeter (244 of 682) and their opponents are connecting on 79.2% of their free throw shots. They have conceded 20.0 dimes and 32.8 boards on a nightly basis, ranking them 6th and 7th in basketball.

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take Phoenix (-5.5)

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