Seattle Storm vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction, 7/2/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Seattle Storm vs Phoenix Mercury

Date: Thursday, July 2, 2026

Location: Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, AZ

TV: WNBA League Pass

Odds/Point Spread: Seattle (+4.5)

The Seattle Storm (5-15) go to Mortgage Matchup Center on Thursday where they'll take on the Phoenix Mercury (7-13). Seattle opens this game as 4.5 point underdogs. The O/U has been set at 169.5.

The Seattle Storm played the Atlanta Dream and took home the win by a score of 105-90 in their last game. Seattle walked away from the game having earned a 60.3% FG percentage (38 of 63) and converted 14 of their 23 three-point shots. From the free throw line, the Storm made 15 of their 20 attempts for a rate of 75.0%. Regarding rebounding, they collected a total of 34 with 8 of them being of the offensive sort. They also recorded 27 dimes for the game as well as forcing the other team into 13 turnovers and having 5 steals. In reference to the defense, Seattle allowed the other team to shoot 42.9% from the floor on 30 of 70 shooting. Atlanta earned 6 dimes and had 7 steals in this contest. On top of that, Atlanta grabbed 26 rebounds (6 offensive, 20 defensive), but finished the game with no blocks. Atlanta shot 88.5% from the charity stripe by converting 23 of their 26 attempts. They converted 7 out of their 29 shots from beyond the arc.

Flau'jae Johnson is one player who was a contributor for this contest. She ended up scoring 24 points on 9 out of 12 shooting. She was on the hardwood for 33 mins played and also collected 11 rebounds. Johnson shot 75.0% from the field and totaled 4 dimes.

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Seattle comes into this one with a win-loss record of 5-15 for the year. They are turning it over 14.0 times per game and as a group they are committing 20.2 fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, Seattle is grabbing 32.1 rebounds per game and is sitting with 379 dimes this season, which ranks 10th in the WNBA in terms of passing the ball. The Storm are shooting 35.0% on shots from 3-point land (179 of 512) and 80.6% from the charity stripe. They average 81.1 pts per contest (14th in the WNBA) while going 42.8% from the floor. On the defensive end, the Storm are able to force 12.1 turnovers per contest and they draw 18.1 fouls. They are giving up 29.9% on 3-point shots and they rank 6th in the league in points per game allowed (86.2). The Storm defensively are giving up a FG percentage of 42.9% (241 of 361) and they relinquish 35.8 boards per game as a team. They currently rank 11th in the WNBA in allowing assists to the opposition with 406 surrendered this year.

When they last stepped on the court, the Phoenix Mercury walked away with a victory by a final of 89-80 when they faced the Toronto Tempo. The Mercury were able to snag 25 defensive boards and 7 offensive boards for a total of 32 in this contest. They also coughed up the ball 8 times, while getting 10 steals in this matchup. The Tempo were called for 24 fouls for the matchup which got the Mercury to the charity stripe for a total of 29 shots. They were able to convert 21 of the free throw tries for a rate of 72.4%. In the matter of shots from downtown, Phoenix made 10 of 27 tries (37.0%). When this game wrapped up, the Mercury finished the game shooting 29 out of 67 from the floor which had them shooting 43.3%. The Mercury permitted the Tempo to knock down 31 of 67 attempts from the floor which had them shooting 46.3% for the matchup. They shot 40.0% from three-point range by hitting 12 out of 30 and finished the game at 6 of 12 from the free throw line (50.0%). When discussing how they attacked the glass, Phoenix permitted Toronto to pull down 35 in total (4 on the offensive side).

Kahleah Copper pitched in for the Mercury in the game. She buried 10 out of 15 for the game for a field goal rate of 66.7%, and earned 5 rebounds. Copper racked up 27 points in her 34 minutes on the hardwood and had 1 assist for the game.

Phoenix has a record of 7-13 on the campaign. Phoenix has totaled 1,679 pts so far this season (84.0 per contest) and they grab 31.9 boards per game. The Mercury are committing 18.6 fouls per contest and they shoot 79.3% from the free throw line. In terms of offensive execution, the Mercury are shooting 43.6% from the floor, which has them ranked 11th in basketball. They are dishing out assists 19.3 times per game (12th in the WNBA) and they turn the ball over 12.9 times per contest. The Mercury on defense are ranked 10th in the league in points per game surrendered with 86.8. They are forcing 13.2 turnovers per game and have let teams shoot 46.2% from the field (10th in the WNBA). The Phoenix defense allows 36.9% on 3-pointers (199 of 539) and their opponents are converting on 79.9% of their free throw shots. They have conceded 20.8 dimes and 33.6 boards per contest, which ranks 12th and 9th in the league.

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Seattle (+4.5)

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