Washington Mystics vs Atlanta Dream Prediction, 9/27/2026 WNBA Pick, Tips and Odds

Game: Washington Mystics vs Atlanta Dream

Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026

Location: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA

TV: Prime Video

Odds/Point Spread: Washington (+7.5)

The Washington Mystics (28-16) travel to State Farm Arena on Sunday where they'll take on the Atlanta Dream (30-14) in Game 1 of their 1st round series. The line on this contest has Atlanta as 7.5 point favorites. The over/under has been set at 164.5.

The Washington Mystics played the Chicago Sky and went home with a win by a final score of 101-93 in their last contest. Washington finished the contest with a 50.0% FG percentage (34 out of 68) and converted 10 of their 22 three-point shots. From the charity stripe, the Mystics buried 23 of their 32 shots for a percentage of 71.9%. With respect to rebounding, they compiled 44 with 14 of them being offensive. They also dished out 19 dimes for this contest in addition to forcing 7 turnovers and getting 4 steals. In relation to the defense, Washington allowed their opponent to shoot 48.6% from the floor on 36 of 74 shooting. Chicago distributed 6 assists and had 9 steals in the matchup. Moreover, Chicago grabbed 27 rebounds (6 offensive, 21 defensive) and added 3 rejections. Chicago finished the game shooting 65.0% at the charity stripe by converting 13 of 20 tries. They converted 8 of 24 tries from beyond the perimeter.

Sonia Citron is one player who played a role in the matchup. She left the arena with 21 points on 8 out of 9 shooting. She played for 28 minutes and also totaled 5 boards. Citron finished 88.9% from the field and also distributed 5 dimes.

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Washington comes into this matchup with a record of 28-16 for the campaign. The Mystics are shooting 32.3% on shots from downtown (278 of 862) and 73.1% from the free throw line. They are averaging 84.0 points per outing (12th in the league) while going 45.4% from the floor. They turn the ball over 14.7 times per contest and as a basketball team they are committing 19.3 personal fouls on a nightly basis. As a unit, Washington is pulling in 37.7 rebounds per contest and has 868 assists this year, which ranks 11th in basketball in terms of passing the ball. On the defensive end of the court, the Mystics are forcing their opponents into 12.1 turnovers per contest while drawing 22.8 fouls. They are conceding 32.8% on 3-pointers and they are ranked 2nd in the league in PPG allowed (82.7). The Mystics defense is allowing and opponent field goal percentage of 43.1% (531 of 1,002) and they surrender 30.1 rebounds per game as a unit. They currently rank 4th in the league in allowing assists to the opposition with 875 conceded on the campaign.

The last time they took the court, the Atlanta Dream took home the win by a final score of 83-65 against the New York Liberty. The Dream corralled 23 defensive rebounds and 12 offensive rebounds for a total of 35 for the matchup. They also coughed it up 6 times, while earning 12 steals in this contest. The Liberty were called for 17 personal fouls for this game which took the Dream to the free throw line for 15 attempts. They were able to bury 13 of the free throw tries for a rate of 86.7%. In reference to 3-point attempts, Atlanta made 10 of 35 tries (28.6%). In all, the Dream went 30 out of 77 from the field which had them at 39.0%. The Dream allowed the Liberty to make 20 of their 55 attempts from the field which gave them a shooting percentage of 36.4% in this matchup. They finished 17.2% from 3-point land via 5 out of 29 and ended up shooting 20 out of 22 from the free throw line (90.9%). In reference to cleaning the glass, Atlanta allowed New York to get 40 overall (7 on the offensive glass).

Allisha Gray ended up being important for the Dream for the contest. She converted 8 out of 17 in the game for a field goal rate of 47.1%, and totaled 4 rebounds. Gray totaled 24 points in her 33 minutes on the hardwood and earned 5 assists in this game.

Atlanta has a mark of 30-14 for the season. Atlanta has 4,019 points on the campaign (91.3 per contest) and they snag 35.6 rebounds per game. The Dream commit 19.6 fouls per game and they go 78.6% from the charity stripe. In terms of offensive execution, the Dream are hitting on 44.2% from the field, which ranks them 11th in the league. Their rate of dishing out assists is at 21.5 times per contest (6th in basketball) and they lose possession by turning the ball over 12.6 times per contest. The Dream on the defensive side of the court are 4th in the league in PPG given up with 84.5. They are able to force 15.4 TO's per game and have let teams shoot 46.9% from the field (13th in the WNBA). The Atlanta defense surrenders 34.8% on shots from distance (355 of 1,019) and their opponents are connecting on 76.9% of their shots from the charity stripe. They have conceded 19.2 assists and 31.0 boards per contest, which has them ranked 3rd and 2nd in the league.

Who will win tonight's WNBA game against the spread?

Josh Schonwald's Pick: Take Washington (+7.5)

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